Ji Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 GFS blows down my way. Primarily a N and W thing. The slower onset is killing us.We just need the euro to be right. Which it never is when we need it to be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Stop it. It’s 4 days away...it’s not long range anymore and it was sucking up all the discussion in the LONG RANGE thread. It made no sense to keep it there just because some people hold this stupid superstition. Threads don’t kill snow our climo does! The long range thread has been a joke this year. Sorry, but it’s true. Very little predictive skill this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 7 minutes ago, Ji said: 21 minutes ago, stormtracker said: GFS blows down my way. Primarily a N and W thing. The slower onset is killing us. We can never get any trend we need no matter what we need..its unreal actually We can when the pattern is favorable. This is the antithesis of favorable. As you might say- its a DISASTER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 2 minutes ago, Ji said: 16 minutes ago, stormtracker said: GFS blows down my way. Primarily a N and W thing. The slower onset is killing us. We can never get any trend we need no matter what we need..its unreal actually Lol what about the January storm??? But I’m general your right. But that’s a sign the pattern just isn’t right for a big snow. When it is we get the opposite. How many mediocre looks turned unto snow in 2014 and 2015! A while ago I said without blocking this isn’t going to work. The pacific pattern has shown itself. The Aleutian trough epo ridge we expected had turned into a North Pacific ridge that was locked in. That typically doesn’t change when a feature like that locks in like it had. With that blocking ridge location the trough axis over the conus would be predominantly west of us and without blocking storms would cut. A month later that’s exactly what’s been happening. The blocking has repeatedly failed and so that pattern has stuck. Last week some blocking and a transient 50/59 got us close. In this case a perfectly timed anomalous 50/50 is the only reason we even have any chance. But even with that it’s gonna be a fight to overcome that north pac issue without a legit NAO block. I guess glass half full says at least we have a chance despite a god awful longwave pattern. We can still turn this around if we can get a healthy wave to eject into the TN valley and not split around the high and wash out into the ridge but the fail option is there despite the perfect 50/50 because everything else is wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 7 minutes ago, PhineasC said: The long range thread has been a joke this year. Sorry, but it’s true. Very little predictive skill this year. You think I don’t see the same guidance fails you do? But it’s still a thread devoted to that discussion. Leaving a medium range specific storm threat discussion in there just to appease an irrational superstition is stupid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 10 minutes ago, PhineasC said: The long range thread has been a joke this year. Sorry, but it’s true. Very little predictive skill this year. It's not the thread...it's the pattern this year. If ya look around at even some of the best met minds out there...very few have had a good since things have been so jacked up and unexpected, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 16 minutes ago, Ji said: 35 minutes ago, stormtracker said: GFS blows down my way. Primarily a N and W thing. The slower onset is killing us. We just need the euro to be right. Which it never is when we need it to be Yeah. I was very disappointed with the Euro's performance with todays event. It has us getting buried 3 days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 26 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Stop it. It’s 4 days away...it’s not long range anymore and it was sucking up all the discussion in the LONG RANGE thread. It made no sense to keep it there just because some people hold this stupid superstition. Threads don’t kill snow our climo does! I lol at this dumb superstition but don't even bother trying to counter anymore. People are gonna believe dumb things anyway. I know some are joking, but yeah....the SE ridge was waiting to see if somebody would make a thread too early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 Just now, clskinsfan said: Yeah. I was very disappointed with the Euro's performance with todays event. It has us getting buried 3 days ago. The 'once threat' for today was the perfect way to score a decent snow event in this pattern, but it didn't happen. I never had much hope for this coming week. Could still work out for some, esp those who like ice, but not really feeling it after last night's runs and what I have seen today so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 U played right into its nefarious plot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 21 minutes ago, Ji said: 40 minutes ago, stormtracker said: GFS blows down my way. Primarily a N and W thing. The slower onset is killing us. We just need the euro to be right. Which it never is when we need it to be Yeah, it'll likely cave. But if it holds, that'll boost morale I guess. It's 4 days out, so I hope no one is jumping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 Ukie anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 22 minutes ago, jaydreb said: Ukie anyone? I skipped the GFS for Costco. $400 later. Anyway, what’s the Ukie got? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 27 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: The 'once threat' for today was the perfect way to score a decent snow event in this pattern, but it didn't happen. I never had much hope for this coming week. Could still work out for some, esp those who like ice, but not really feeling it after last night's runs and what I have seen today so far. This week would have had a better chance had the storm bombed this weekend and dumped a true cold airmass south into the east. That look 5+ days ago had real potential with wiggle room and multiple ways to score. Once that failed and the boundary wasn’t going to be that far south of this the potential took a significant hit imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 32 minutes ago, jaydreb said: Ukie anyone? Even slower with precip. Hardly anything around at 12z Wednesday. I can’t see temp maps or snow maps so not 100% sure but it does not look good when you compare to 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 7 minutes ago, Scraff said: I skipped the GFS for Costco. $400 later. Anyway, what’s the Ukie got? Costco....The ultimate love/hate relationship! Cannot walk out of that place without your pockets a couple of hundred bucks lighter. UK looks decent for a NW of the cities hit I think. Colder aloft than the GFS. Edit. NVM. I was looking at the 0Z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 If models don't stop trending the opposite direction, then DT is going to be jumping for joy about his winter cancel claim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 Ukmet takes the initial waa surge west of us. It doesn’t get heavy precip into the area until Wednesday evening. It puts down a ton Wednesday night but by then it’s ice or rain. I’m sure those idiot maps that count ice as snow will say we get 20”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: The 12z GEFS still looks good for our Wednesday storm. Most of the ensemble members give most of CTP a few inches of snow by Thursday am. You might be in the wrong forum? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 50 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Yeah. I was very disappointed with the Euro's performance with todays event. It has us getting buried 3 days ago. To be fair, I have seen the occasional high cloud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 2 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: If models don't stop trending the opposite direction, then DT is going to be jumping for joy about his winter cancel claim He already busted. He cancelled winter for the whole east and even said northeast and New England!!! Some places already had a bad snow and ice storm. And this next week will be snow somewhere, it’s not changing to rain all the way to Canada. I took issue with his extreme exaggerations. It might fail for us but he said entire northeast was not getting any winter weather and even said including New England. He goes over the top sometimes when he is upset and then tries to spin his way out of it. He made a ridiculous forecast and now is defending it when only a small bit of the less extreme part verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 4 minutes ago, stormtracker said: You might be in the wrong forum? Yes, I forgot that I was lurking here. Then I decided to post about the GEFS for Central PA. I quickly deleted the post here & went to the right forum! Sorry everyone, great group here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 6 minutes ago, stormtracker said: You might be in the wrong forum? That looks like crap compared to 24 hours ago lol. And we are clearly stuck in the middle there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: That looks like crap compared to 24 hours ago lol. And we are clearly stuck in the middle there. I want my purples and pinks back lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 Who’s doing the Euro pbp...we need someone lucky. Is there anyone that has lucky in their screen name? Maybe Lucketts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 Here we go! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 Just now, Scraff said: Here we go! Now we are taking. Magically delicious? Or will the marshmallows be all gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PCT_ATC Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: Now we are taking. Magically delicious? Or will the marshmallows be all gone. I think there are magical unicorns in there somewhere if you look really hard and click your heals 3 times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 Euro slow too. Snow is on the doorstep at 12z Wed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 Pretty similar at 84hr, cold push marginally better, timing looks the same. Light snow into CHO at 90. Below 32 just S of DC and riding down the apps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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