Ji Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 Tropical tidbits has been a disaster lately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deer Whisperer Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 4 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: NWS is talking about an enhanced winter storm threat for Tue night/Wed. ninja'd damnit NA101, you stole my pictures Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 Just now, Ji said: 14 minutes ago, ravensrule said: He is fine. He likes the attention Don't confuse him with yourself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 Sad to watch the GFS be so inconsistent run to run. Not even similar to 18z overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 Don't confuse him with yourself.You dont leave the board during a major event as a top poster and not expect everyone to beg you to come back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 He only half left and it was prior to the current realizations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 1 minute ago, DDweatherman said: Sad to watch the GFS be so inconsistent run to run. Not even similar to 18z overall. pretty similar to 18z through 66 hrs. Thump incoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deer Whisperer Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 2 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: Sad to watch the GFS be so inconsistent run to run. Not even similar to 18z overall. im confused, whats different Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 GFS targeting south of dc at 66 with very heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 Just now, MD Snow said: pretty similar to 18z through 66 hrs. Thump incoming. Seems to be a more west to east progression of the precip once it gets to our latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 Just now, MD Snow said: pretty similar to 18z through 66 hrs. Thump incoming. Precip axis is not aimed at us in a fashion like the NAM/ICON. Moves in more west to east, warm at surface by 72. Less snow overall vs 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snjókoma Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 3 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: Sad to watch the GFS be so inconsistent run to run. Not even similar to 18z overall. It's actually been very consistent at putting the heaviest WAA snows in a narrow Harrisonburg-EZF corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 GFS getting pretty moderate snow into DC a bit earlier this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 Maybe it’s more IMBY in nature, but I don’t like the evolution on the GFS as much 0z vs 18z. We know it’s not going to do as well with CAD, but I want the SW to NE progression overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 FV3 has snow breaking out in DC by 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 Gfs is worst model for cad....its not useful once we get into high res range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 FV3 has snow breaking out in DC by 6z. That's been consistent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 I’m on mobile and Pivotal sucks at letting me save images... GFS Kuchera:CHO: 6.2” + 0.37” FRZADCA: 4.2”BWI: 2.1” + T FRZA Great run for CHO *ducks* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 Varsity models are here to bring us back down to earth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 Ggem pounds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 It’s a good run for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snjókoma Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 As usual it’s a bit hard to decipher, but I think HM’s tweet here relates to what the GFS might be hinting at. if you’re in the band, you’re busting high with good ratios and dynamics. GFS wants to put it in north-central VA, NAM has it between DC and the M/D. If you’re not, it’s gonna be weak sauce with sh*tty ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshfsu123 Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 As some have mentioned, the band(s) of stronger rates of snow won’t be fully known until gametime... so not surprised the models, like the GFS, continue to move around a bit and place heavier areas of snow at different places. That’s why they are used as guidance, but not gospel. GFS still produced good snows for Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 Conversely, the FV3 is more typical of what one would expect. Kuchera CHO: 2.6” + 0.31” FRZADCA: 5.7” + 0.27” FRZAFDK: 12.3” + 0.5” FRZABWI: 8.7” + 0.24” FRZABig differences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 FV3 has two maximas....a western and eastern one. A bit of a gap in between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DSF Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: BWI: 8.7” + 0.24” FRZA I would take that in a heartbeat. (Although to be honest, a quarter inch of freezing rain is beautiful, but miserable for lots of people.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 Just hug the euro and assume it’s undergoing CAD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 FV3 looks great. 5-6” on kuchera for dc. 11” for Winchester crew. With sleet and ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 6 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Varsity models are here to bring us back down to earth. Huh?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 9 minutes ago, Ji said: Gfs is worst model for cad....its not useful once we get into high res range The GFS is just killing the shortwave that triggers the WAA earlier. The NAM/ICON do it too but much later. The GFS is also not as strong with the SER so the disturbance tracks more south. I would trust the NAM/ICON more for your area right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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