MillvilleWx Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 Just now, C.A.P.E. said: Not a big fan of the ICON for here this run. Not ICONIC. This just isn't your winter man. Need a strong CAD signal and quicker WAA regime for a thump. Still possible. Living on that side of the bay is tough in these setups. Transitions can come in fast and furious with any marine influence. Hopefully the ICON doesn't lead the pack into something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 4 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: I think the ICON is a terrible model, but verbatim, it's a thump to ice NW of the fall line. DC on south is a cold rain after a quick mix transition. Surface never goes above freezing for quite a few. Thank god it's the ICON though. Icon isn’t that good but it did do ok with the temps last week. Kinda laughed when it kept me at freezing the while storm. Well I never got above 32 and several downed trees later I have to admit it got that right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 1 minute ago, LP08 said: I think it does ok with track and placement but it’s surface temps usually run cold. I think the reason it gets so much run is that it comes out during dead times before the big guns. It can run cold, but with the high positioning and strength this run, it has merit. For me, it's all about the evolving synoptic setup right now, and monitoring the CAD sig closer into game time when the mesos will have a better handle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 At least the icon lost the deluge. It’s snow to ice to dryslot nw of 95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 Just now, psuhoffman said: Icon isn’t that good but it did do ok with the temps last week. Kinda laughed when it kept me at freezing the while storm. Well I never got above 32 and several downed trees later I have to admit it got that right. Yeah. Kind of a hint from my last post I just made. All about the setup. Get a strong high and the colder surface has some merit. A lot of moving pieces with this one to score big. Kind of like every event this winter. Been a p.i.t.a to keep up with. Don't envy the forecasters at Sterling this winter. Had their hands full. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: We ignored the NAM when it had almost no wave today... lol. Here is the rub with the NAM. It often just adds noise (even at short leads) because it’s prone to go off on wild tangents and you never know if it’s picking up on the right idea or not. But when it does have the right idea it often does the best job with the details. Seeing CAD. Getting the details of the thermal profile. Meso scale banding. If it has the right general synoptic setup it often has the best depiction of details. So there are times it scores the coup like Jan 2016 with the heavy snow into NYC or picking up on the waa thump in November this year or seeing the weird inverted trough aided ccb with the January storm. Problem is you can’t tell when it’s scoring the coup or just standing on some soap box spewing crazy talk. Generally if the NAM has 3-4 straight runs as it comes into range inside 84 with little change you can really be confident it has a good idea. If it’s shifting notably from run to run it’s usually a toss til it gets inside 48. It has to be consistent beyond 48-54 to be confident it’s got the right idea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 Just now, MillvilleWx said: This just isn't your winter man. Need a strong CAD signal and quicker WAA regime for a thump. Still possible. Living on that side of the bay is tough in these setups. Transitions can come in fast and furious with any marine influence. Hopefully the ICON doesn't lead the pack into something. Lol you ain't kidding. And I know this is a fail scenario for here 9 times out of 10, other than a quick inch of slop to rain. Not a single thing weather wise to track right now other than this crap though, and who knows, it could end up the 10% where a legit thump happens before the flip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 30 minutes ago, Grothar of Herndon said: Yes, this one is different. There is going to be rain next week after this storm so no need to Deb especially in this thread. What we need is for a massive thump to enjoy. I just don't think there will be a massive thump with that track and no big cold. Like I said, I'm hoping you guys are seeing something I'm not. I won't say anything else perceived as negativity. Just wanted to express my thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 Icon is at best 3 to 6 hours of snow prior to freezing rain/ rain/dry slot. Need it to come in hot n heavy if that's the small window we have for snow. Atleast it's showing a dry slot and not a deluge after the changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 Gfs slower with precip through 78 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 GFS looks a touch colder in the mids but just doesn’t throw a ton of precip into the cold sector before we lose them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 GFS synoptic evolution screams ice storm on this run. Very potent jet cutting over the top with right entrance region placed over the Mid Atlantic. Hold sig looks good at the surface, but southerly 850 winds send the mid level warm air northward. Another NW of 95 high impact zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 29 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: We ignored the NAM when it had almost no wave today... lol. Here is the rub with the NAM. It often just adds noise (even at short leads) because it’s prone to go off on wild tangents and you never know if it’s picking up on the right idea or not. But when it does have the right idea it often does the best job with the details. Seeing CAD. Getting the details of the thermal profile. Meso scale banding. If it has the right general synoptic setup it often has the best depiction of details. So there are times it scores the coup like Jan 2016 with the heavy snow into NYC or picking up on the waa thump in November this year or seeing the weird inverted trough aided ccb with the January storm. Problem is you can’t tell when it’s scoring the coup or just standing on some soap box spewing crazy talk. When it's consistent with other models I don't mind looking at it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 The temp profile was good leading in. I like that part. But the Gfs is a weak strung out pos wave. Imo temps would be fine if it brought the precip in. The runs that had a good result were crushing us with .5-1” qpf during the morning into afternoon Wednesday. Big difference between that and some piddling .25 qpf crap. Of course it’s warmer. Less dynamic cooling and mixing of the column to overcome warm layers and hold off waa. We need a healthy wave for this to work. Gfs is trending towards a split of energy with one weak wave cutting way up to the lakes and the other shearing out under us. That’s not the progression we want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 Trend so far at 12z has been a slightly more robust SE ridge. Further west track of the primary and slower onset of precip. The further west it tracks the more likely we don’t get the waa thump before we lose the mids. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 The cold is hanging on basically the same as it has been. The problem is the good moisture is being pushed to our south and east. Look at the difference in qpf. Into the area between the good thump it was showing yesterday and the meh it's showing now. Only gets like .10 qpf to the m/d line. Not much of a thump. Ninjed.. By @psuhoffman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 CMC is slower with precip onset than gfs. It also less precip than 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: GFS synoptic evolution screams ice storm on this run. Very potent jet cutting over the top with right entrance region placed over the Mid Atlantic. Hold sig looks good at the surface, but southerly 850 winds send the mid level warm air northward. Another NW of 95 high impact zone. Yay I can lose more trees. Lol yea the gfs evolution is great for Ice I was talking about snow. We need a more consolidated amped wave to get heavy precip in early to get a thump. The weaker split wave idea is better for an ice event. Ice is just frozen rain to me. Only time it’s any good is if it’s on top of a lot of snow and that’s only because it preserves my snow lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 GFS blows down my way. Primarily a N and W thing. The slower onset is killing us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 The good thing is that we still have 4 days for things to work out in our favor. The bad thing is that we have a razor thin margin of error. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 Just now, psuhoffman said: Yay I can lose more trees. Lol yea the gfs evolution is great for Ice I was talking about snow. We need a more consolidated amped wave to get heavy precip in early to get a thump. The weaker split wave idea is better for an ice event. Ice is just frozen rain to me. Only time it’s any good is if it’s on top of a lot of snow and that’s only because it preserves my snow lol. 100% agreement there. That's why this morning I was kind of wary where this was going. A quicker flip in the mids with still a cold surface press could make for a nasty 24 hours your way and the rest of the typical areas that are prone to holding CAD. And I agree on the ice lol. I do appreciate a good ice storm though, but it's ugly when it starts taking down trees on property. Hopefully it trends more consolidated. Certainly has time for that. Got a feeling the cold is a lock at the surface. When GFS is holding 32-33 at this lead with the warmer air overhead, doesn't make you feel comfortable knowing it's probably a few degrees too warm like always. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 5 minutes ago, Chris78 said: The cold is hanging on basically the same as it has been. The problem is the good moisture is being pushed to our south and east. Look at the difference in qpf. Into the area between the good thump it was showing yesterday and the meh it's showing now. Only gets like .10 qpf to the m/d line. Not much of a thump. Ninjed.. By @psuhoffman Remember a few days ago when I teased maestro that the way this fails is it splits and one wave shears out south and the other cuts nw? Its happening !!!!!!!!! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The temp profile was good leading in. I like that part. But the Gfs is a weak strung out pos wave. Imo temps would be fine if it brought the precip in. The runs that had a good result were crushing us with .5-1” qpf during the morning into afternoon Wednesday. Big difference between that and some piddling .25 qpf crap. Of course it’s warmer. Less dynamic cooling and mixing of the column to overcome warm layers and hold off waa. We need a healthy wave for this to work. Gfs is trending towards a split of energy with one weak wave cutting way up to the lakes and the other shearing out under us. That’s not the progression we want. Agreed. We need it amped up for the dynamics to help us. As a side note the lighter precip would most likely lead to more ice at the surface. Edit:Ninja'd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inthepines Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 Trend this year has been to juice up these systems as we get closer. I’m more worried about the strength of the high than qpf at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 Ugh killing another threat with a storm thread way too early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: GFS blows down my way. Primarily a N and W thing. The slower onset is killing us. It’s got no precip up here where the temps hold longer though. Maybe 1”. It’s pretty much a non event. It’s what I kind of feared in this setup. The stj wave splits from the main trough and gets sheared out south. The main energy goes northwest. We end up stuck in between. The reason that’s a risk is the awful se ridge. Really hard to get a wave to amplify east under that. The path of least resistance is way to our west. So if the cold high is there instead of amplifying into it the energy just splits and shears out under us. There is time to reverse this. If the energy ejects more consolidated into the TN valley it could trend back to a thump. The difference between this and that Euro run with 6-12” isn’t that great. We don’t need an amped up wave. Just enough to direct that healthy stj up and into the cold high instead of shearing east under us. It’s far enough out that could still happen. If this was 48 hours away and this trend was happening I’d be sticking a fork in our chances of significant snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 6 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Ugh killing another threat with a storm thread way too early. Yep...everyone is too premature w things around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 7 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Ugh killing another threat with a storm thread way too early. Stop it. It’s 4 days away...it’s not long range anymore and it was sucking up all the discussion in the LONG RANGE thread. It made no sense to keep it there just because some people hold this stupid superstition. Threads don’t kill snow our climo does! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 GFS blows down my way. Primarily a N and W thing. The slower onset is killing us.We can never get any trend we need no matter what we need..its unreal actually Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 Stop it. It’s 4 days away...it’s not long range anymore and it was sucking up all the discussion in the LONG RANGE thread. It made no sense to keep it there just because some people hold this stupid superstition. Threads don’t kill snow our climo does!Lol....its not the se ridge that's killing our storm...its the radio show Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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