wtkidz Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 13 minutes ago, snowmagnet said: Weather Channel App gives me 5-8” on Wednesday after 1” Tuesday night. Wish it was right. Mine 50 miles south is 4-8" no way do i think that will happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 15 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: FV3 is ideal...comes in fast, heavy thump all night, heavy snow then ice. The thing is.. and you can correct me if I am wrong ERS.. but we can get a quick slug of 0.75 qpf as snow with this sort of set up... And if that happens.. I would not be surprised if someone gets 6-8 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 16 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: The signals are all there for a significant event. Details will fine tune over time. We have it all here... Cold High, CAD (always underdone in most guidance), abundant moisture source out of the Gulf, strong waa signature. If it’s not a coastal, this is the second best way we get our snow and ice in good quantities. 3 minutes ago, jaydreb said: Yep. Pretty uncomplicated. We do uncomplicated well. Just run a slug of moisture into cold air. I wouldn't call this totally uncomplicated...and that's only because of the se ridge... Just now, PDIII said: Hey in all seriousness.. I am concerned about the euro. I get it. Simple is simple.. but what happens when fire hose goes into the Ohio valley? That's my concern as well. If the other models aren't accounting for just how much that ridge may flex...we may see them fall in line with the euro in the next day or so. That seems to be the one way this goes wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Just now, PDIII said: The thing is.. and you can correct me if I am wrong ERS.. but we can get a quick slug of 0.75 qpf as snow with this sort of set up... And if that happens.. I would not be surprised if someone gets 6-8 inches. That is attainable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 FV3 is pretty similar to the Euro. Way too early for RGEM extrapolation. But man is it juiced up at 48 on the gulf coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Snow can fall fast and furious on a front end thump. High rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wtkidz Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 7 minutes ago, PDIII said: This one is better.. I guess. Don't they have one that shows all the sleet as snow? 9 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: FV3 maps I will raise your i con with hour 90 on Regular GFS (yes it incudes sleet) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: I wouldn't call this totally uncomplicated...and that's only because of the se ridge... That's my concern as well. If the other models aren't accounting for just how much that ridge may flex...we may see them fall in line with the euro in the next day or so. That seems to be the one way this goes wrong. It’s uncomplicated in the sense that we aren’t hoping for a phase, etc. The storm will exist. It’s just a matter of whether it points at us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KingJWx Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Latest from LWX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 16 minutes ago, PDIII said: This one is better.. I guess. Don't they have one that shows all the sleet as snow? D.C. snow hole still gives a decent event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 FV3 starts at 1am Wed. I can get with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Just now, stormtracker said: FV3 starts at 1am Wed. I can get with that. Seems like WAA comes in faster than cold smoke events overcoming dry air. That’s a painful process to watch and wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Just now, BristowWx said: Seems like WAA comes in faster than cold smoke events overcoming dry air. That’s a painful process to watch and wait. I can’t say it is 100% of the time WAA comes in faster than modeled but I’m confident it comes in faster like 80% of the time. That bodes well for us i think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 8 minutes ago, stormtracker said: FV3 starts at 1am Wed. I can get with that. Whoa...that's a good bit faster than other guidance, and I think even faster than what it showed earlier. ETA: One thing I do like is seeing the precip start time moved up (earlier) lately. Maybe 1AM is a bit much but at least pre-dawn now. The other day there was a trend toward it starting later, well after 12Z in some model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Just now, jaydreb said: It’s uncomplicated in the sense that we aren’t hoping for a phase, etc. The storm will exist. It’s just a matter of whether it points at us. Oh yeah definitely--storm will indeed exist, lol Let's just see where the arrow will point...(would love to see the 0z euro come east a bit) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 A couple of others have mentioned a similarity to the VD storm in Feb. 2007. I can sort of see that, but I don't know if this setup is as good as then. Certainly different...didn't we have actual blocking at that time in 2007? Also, the antecedent air was quite cold with that VD storm. We got nearly all sleet in the DC area, which froze into a solid block of ice after the event. That's I think the main difference...we had a week of solid cold right after, we won't have that this time (it's going to be warm after this is over). But like I said, I can see some of the similarities too. This also seems reminiscent of that Feb. 2015 event that started with extremely cold temps...though again, obviously this won't start with single-digits like that one. History may not repeat, but it does rhyme, as they say...or something like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 35 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: FV3 is pretty similar to the Euro. Way too early for RGEM extrapolation. But man is it juiced up at 48 on the gulf coast. Where is it aiming? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 The euro definitely could be on to something. No doubt. Remember though, it was giving everyone in the sub a high end advisory to warning level event 72 hrs before the Saturday “event.” Just something to take into account. It’s not infallible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDM Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 11 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said: A couple of others have mentioned a similarity to the VD storm in Feb. 2007. I can sort of see that, but I don't know if this setup is as good as then. Certainly different...didn't we have actual blocking at that time in 2007? Also, the antecedent air was quite cold with that VD storm. We got nearly all sleet in the DC area, which froze into a solid block of ice after the event. That's I think the main difference...we had a week of solid cold right after, we won't have that this time (it's going to be warm after this is over). But like I said, I can see some of the similarities too. This also seems reminiscent of that Feb. 2015 event that started with extremely cold temps...though again, obviously this won't start with single-digits like that one. History may not repeat, but it does rhyme, as they say...or something like that. Remember that event well. My family and I departed on VD to move to Bangkok. Was chaos at IAD to say the least. However, that event was a very prolonged sleet storm the likes of which we rarely get here if anywhere. The HP to the NE of the GL was much stronger and the event was a combo of CAD with a W to E LP that ran a stationary front that helped preserve the CAD. While there's no doubt a lot of CAD on this one, the BL lifts to the NE eventually on the models. What may make this interesting is if the secondary forms off the DELMARVA has some posters mentioned earlier today. That may not help us much around here, but there's the hint of a decent band setting up to the NE of PSU. If only that were to happen down by the OBX... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Just now, losetoa6 said: Interesting that Friday looks similar setup wise as Wed ...like a mini version. High strength has been increasing the past few runs . Maybe we go 2 for 2 . Yeah, could potentially be a stats padder for the northern tier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 1 hour ago, LeesburgWx said: What do we say to the haters who say CAD snow is fake snow like Lake Effect Snow is? It’s all fake snow. You would know that if you took the red pill! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 My thoughts haven’t changed. Imo someone is getting 6-10” from this where that plume ends up directed. On either side of that a larger area of lighter snows before flipping to ice. That thump will be somewhere between north central VA and Harrisburg PA imo. Guidance continues to bounce around with the exact location of that band. The goal posts keep narrowing and we’re still inside them for now so that’s good. At least some accumulating snow and ice is starting to look very likely. It’s becoming a matter of how much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: My thoughts haven’t changed. Imo someone is getting 6-10” from this where that plume ends up directed. On either side of that a larger area of lighter snows before flipping to ice. That thump will be somewhere between north central VA and Harrisburg PA imo. Guidance continues to bounce around with the exact location of that band. The goal posts keep narrowing and we’re still inside them for now so that’s good. At least some accumulating snow and ice is starting to look very likely. It’s becoming a matter of how much. Congrats Westminster! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 54 minutes ago, stormtracker said: FV3 starts at 1am Wed. I can get with that. Yeah would nice. Also would be if it was a good model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 I will make a bold prediction that @das will once again report the highest region totals from his backyard. He will only be watching via webcam, of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 I’m all in on the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 11 minutes ago, mappy said: I’m all in on the euro 18Z? Haven't seen it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrlg1181 Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 Little off topic for this upcoming system .. been seeing alittle bit of lightining down here near Afton Mt... first lightining/thunder of the year ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 WPC's first take: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 18z EURO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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