LP08 Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 hot and heavy on the 18z GFS for 12z Wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Best GFS run for the event lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Back to the NAM for a minute, the stoutness of the cold is really solid. These are the 925mb temps at 21z, long after we've lost the upper levels. To this point 1" of QPF has fallen out west and ~0.8" in the 95 corridor. The NAM really has almost this entire event as frozen of one sort or another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 1 minute ago, LP08 said: Best GFS run for the event lol Well, I dunno yet...I'm only at 66. I wanna see two panels of snow! Nevermind...panels were slow loading for me. Yeah, it's a good run so far...2 full panels of snow..looks moderate at least too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Hah! We don’t lose 850s until 21z and it’s um...wet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 18z gfs is a hold imo. Didn't trend toward a euro solution. Add in "the GFS is terrible with CAD setups" and we're all good! Happy hour's hasn't been too bad today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Well, I dunno yet...I'm only at 66. I wanna see two panels of snow! Nevermind...panels were slow loading for me. Yeah, it's a good run so far...2 full panels of snow..looks moderate at least too Seemed like every layer was a tick colder(probably due to the axis of heavy stuff shifting around). Somebody is going to get smoked Wednesday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Woodbridge02 Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 I hope this is right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Gfs looks good. This is snow depth change which is more conservative. Take half that for algorithm purposes and it’s still around 4” of sno for dc. That’s a good solid thump. Don’t like how it’s during the day but if rates are good the. It won’t matter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Go GFS! Wetter is better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Fv3 is also holding the damming longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Best happy hour yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Previous runs showed this timing as the changeover, but now heavier precip is happening with the damming holding! https://mageval.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/18/namer/850_temp_mslp_precip/gfs_namer_071_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif eta: uploading for archiving Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Just now, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Previous runs showed this changeover, but now heavier precip is happening with the dam holding! https://mageval.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/18/namer/850_temp_mslp_precip/gfs_namer_071_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif #hotandheavy and #holdthedam should be our motto for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 ^ Aint they cute. Love the enthusiasm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 FV3 + ICON = Win for MBY GFS isnt bad either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 FV3 gives us a wintry mix on friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Weather Channel App gives me 5-8” on Wednesday after 1” Tuesday night. Wish it was right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 The signals are all there for a significant event. Details will fine tune over time. We have it all here... Cold High, CAD (always underdone in most guidance), abundant moisture source out of the Gulf, strong waa signature. If it’s not a coastal, this is the second best way we get our snow and ice in good quantities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Just now, MD Snow said: FV3 gives us a wintry mix on friday. The late week period is sneaky and worth keeping an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Just now, MD Snow said: FV3 gives us a wintry mix on friday. Day or night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Just now, C.A.P.E. said: The late week period is sneaky and worth keeping an eye on. Yeah, it keeps kind of popping up on different runs here and there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 FV3 is ideal...comes in fast, heavy thump all night, heavy snow then ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 1 minute ago, snowmagnet said: Day or night? Afternoon into the evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 15 minutes ago, Woodbridge02 said: I hope this is right That's the wrong map. Your supposed to show them that shows 15 inches. Come on now??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 What do we say to the haters who say CAD snow is fake snow like Lake Effect Snow is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 FV3 maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 11 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: The signals are all there for a significant event. Details will fine tune over time. We have it all here... Cold High, CAD (always underdone in most guidance), abundant moisture source out of the Gulf, strong waa signature. If it’s not a coastal, this is the second best way we get our snow and ice in good quantities. Yep. Pretty uncomplicated. We do uncomplicated well. Just run a slug of moisture into cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: FV3 maps This one is better.. I guess. Don't they have one that shows all the sleet as snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 1 minute ago, jaydreb said: Yep. Pretty uncomplicated. We do uncomplicated well. Just run a slug of moisture into cold air. Hey in all seriousness.. I am concerned about the euro. I get it. Simple is simple.. but what happens when fire hose goes into the Ohio valley? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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