BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Any word on the eps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wtkidz Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 4 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Problem is the direct aim of initial precip keeps moving (windshield). 12z had more snow..this run more...crap. Initial snow is pretty moderate/heavy tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Just now, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Any word on the eps? Yeah it was better than the OP. 3-6” area wide Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Snow to sleet bomb to dryslot? I can live with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Just now, BaltimoreWxGuy said: Yeah it was better than the OP. 3-6” area wide Great to hear! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Looking forward to a Sunday GFS happy hour. I’m not in love with the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Just now, clskinsfan said: Snow to sleet bomb to dryslot? I can live with that. very common with CAD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 4 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Yeah, that CAD on the NAM is vicious and actually keeps getting better. We trade one thing for the other I guess. Yep...like a game of jenga or something! We now have more CAD but now the se ridge is flexing...Whereas a few days ago we had less cold air...but a flatter se ridge. Snow life in the MA! This is one of those setups where...if ya see something 3-4 days out that has even a chance of crashing the party...assume it will but hope for the best, lol I won't be too high on this until we see even a slightly weaker ser modeled. I can picture thump trending wester and wester in the coming runs...or staying within the goalposts here (hopefully). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Something else to make mention before I step away for the rest of the afternoon. Take a look at hours 75-84. Notice the tight compaction of isobar's over the Delmarva. That is the position of the thermal gradient between the warm air from southerly flow and the easterly winds along the base of the surface high to the north. That kind of baroclinic ribbon could pop a weak area of low pressure, which is exactly what the NAM does towards the end of the run. It's pretty late, but any development of that low will allow for winds to diminish greatly on the western flank of the ridge, locking in the cold air for the event entirety. Despite very little precip for the end of the run, temps and dew points will be running pretty close with light precip and mist likely for several hours after the storm. That's a sneaky way to sustain ice accretion with only light returns across the sub-forum, especially those west of the fall line. Verbatim, this would be a pretty nasty event with snow to sleet and ending as several hours of freezing rain and mist. It will become really slippery on Wednesday if that came to fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Hmm 3K is stuck at hour 41 on Tidbits. Kind of curious what it shows at the end of its run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 8 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: Something else to make mention before I step away for the rest of the afternoon. Take a look at hours 75-84. Notice the tight compaction of isobar's over the Delmarva. That is the position of the thermal gradient between the warm air from southerly flow and the easterly winds along the base of the surface high to the north. That kind of baroclinic ribbon could pop a weak area of low pressure, which is exactly what the NAM does towards the end of the run. It's pretty late, but any development of that low will allow for winds to diminish greatly on the western flank of the ridge, locking in the cold air for the event entirety. Despite very little precip for the end of the run, temps and dew points will be running pretty close with light precip and mist likely for several hours after the storm. That's a sneaky way to sustain ice accretion with only light returns across the sub-forum, especially those west of the fall line. Verbatim, this would be a pretty nasty event with snow to sleet and ending as several hours of freezing rain and mist. It will become really slippery on Wednesday if that came to fruition. Is this similar to say the 12z gem solution? Surface not necessarily what we want but it does pop the LPC on the delmarva. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wtkidz Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said: Hmm 3K is stuck at hour 41 on Tidbits. Kind of curious what it shows at the end of its run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 To put it in super simple terms. The HPC has shifted more easter and the heavy precip has decided to try to go around it by going more wester. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 ICON looks better than 12z. Gets the good stuff in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 22 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: Something else to make mention before I step away for the rest of the afternoon. Take a look at hours 75-84. Notice the tight compaction of isobar's over the Delmarva. That is the position of the thermal gradient between the warm air from southerly flow and the easterly winds along the base of the surface high to the north. That kind of baroclinic ribbon could pop a weak area of low pressure, which is exactly what the NAM does towards the end of the run. It's pretty late, but any development of that low will allow for winds to diminish greatly on the western flank of the ridge, locking in the cold air for the event entirety. Despite very little precip for the end of the run, temps and dew points will be running pretty close with light precip and mist likely for several hours after the storm. That's a sneaky way to sustain ice accretion with only light returns across the sub-forum, especially those west of the fall line. Verbatim, this would be a pretty nasty event with snow to sleet and ending as several hours of freezing rain and mist. It will become really slippery on Wednesday if that came to fruition. Thank you for that bit of explanation. Being next to the Atlantic often throws a wrench in forecasts around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Icon gets precip in DC around 10z . Looks decent for thump Ninjd Yeah, we pretty much just got iconed! Surface stays at or below freezing for cities north and west for the entire event it appears. Big thump. If people want to know best case scenario it's what the icon just gave us imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Just now, MD Snow said: Yeah, we pretty much just got iconed! That sounds cooler than NAM’ed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Just now, BristowWx said: That sounds cooler than NAM’ed both overrated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Icon is early enough for a fun morning in DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: That sounds cooler than NAM’ed Its even a legit thump for here. ICONIC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 54 minutes ago, stormtracker said: lol..at 66 its got a heavy band...and then a gap of precip south of EZF...as it nothing. where the other models have a solid wall of precip. wtf Yeah, but that looks believable. We often see a lull in a transition region between types. I could absolutely see an initial band of snow, and then a lull, then it fills in with sleet/zr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 It’s amazing how we suddenly pay attention to the Icon since Stormtracker’s declaration. A week ago everyone would have said, “but it’s the Icon”. LOL Regardless, it’s great to see similarities with all the models at this point in the game. Anything can still happen at this point... as long as it doesn’t go South, literally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Well the Icon scored a coup when it had the heavy snow for the DC area with the trailing UL energy for the Jan storm. Ima ride it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 15 minutes ago, snowmagnet said: It’s amazing how we suddenly pay attention to the Icon since Stormtracker’s declaration. A week ago everyone would have said, “but it’s the Icon”. LOL Regardless, it’s great to see similarities with all the models at this point in the game. Anything can still happen at this point... as long as it doesn’t go South, literally. Chill has always liked it. So have I. We've been saying all winter that it's sniffed out certain storms at times better than the other globals. It's got weird algorithms etc but it's not a half bad model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 1 minute ago, MD Snow said: Chill has always liked it. So have I. We've been saying all winter that it's sniffed out certain storms better than the other globals. It's got weird algorithms etc but it's not a half bad model. May end up being more accurate than the new GFS...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Follow the model that shows the most snow. Weenie rule # 1 in the rulebook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 1 minute ago, LeesburgWx said: Follow the model that shows the most snow. Weenie rule # 1 in the rulebook I mean if your not riding the model with the most snow then you’re in the wrong forum lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 It looks like the ICON starts as freezing rain if its below 32 and then transitions to snow. If true, I don't think that is a good trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: It looks like the ICON starts as freezing rain if its below 32 and then transitions to snow. If true, I don't think that is a good trend. Gotta bust the boundary...only way this is an event...no cold smoke here. I like our chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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