Fozz Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 This has a good chance of being the biggest storm of the season for some of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsnowman Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Simplified answer is warm air is being spread from the southeast over the Atlantic towards our region. More on that. It’s often a High centered over Bermuda (Bermuda High) that can both help and hurt with winter patterns. Too strong and it forces storms to our west, often causing it to rain. Except in this case the strong cold HP is suppressing it over our area (exactly where remains to be seen). Alternatively if the High is not too strong it can help force storms up the coast instead of out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Just now, Fozz said: This has a good chance of being the biggest storm of the season for some of us. I believe I got 5” with that one storm about a month ago or whenever it was. Not sure if I can beat that with this one or not. Kinda expecting 2-4” at this point but the good thing is that it may be hot and heavy for 4-6 hours unlike the 5” storm I got which was like 15 hours of light snow lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said: I believe I got 5” with that one storm about a month ago or whenever it was. Not sure if I can beat that with this one or not. Kinda expecting 2-4” at this point but the good thing is that it may be hot and heavy for 4-6 hours unlike the 5” storm I got which was like 15 hours of light snow lol 4.2" here. I think exceeding that is doable where I'm at. And I totally agree.... even getting 2-3" in the span of a few hours is a lot more fun than 4-5" in 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Gonna get NAMed again. Juicy and already snow snowing up at hr 51 in extreme SW VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 1 hour ago, jewell2188 said: A classic example of wasting tax payer money. And another example of “use the budget or lose it next year” I can help. First off, VDOT needs to stop reading JIs forecast on Facebook... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 NAM looks very interesting. That is a strong High in place by Tuesday. Ton of moisture getting pulled north from the Gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 I'm not going to predict a model..learned not to do that too much...but NAM looks good so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Now watch what'll happen. We're all talking up the NAM and it'll fizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 15 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said: I believe I got 5” with that one storm about a month ago or whenever it was. Not sure if I can beat that with this one or not. Kinda expecting 2-4” at this point but the good thing is that it may be hot and heavy for 4-6 hours unlike the 5” storm I got which was like 15 hours of light snow lol The hot heavy part is the key here...which is why we gotta hope the se ridge plays nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 NAM BL looks great. Dewpoints in the teens upstream, strong CAD, and strong waa incoming. Get ready for good thump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Nam looks more similar to the euro. Keeping the best to our west... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inverted_Trough Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 looks like the moisture plume will get shunted northwest of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 lol..at 66 its got a heavy band...and then a gap of precip south of EZF...as it nothing. where the other models have a solid wall of precip. wtf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Just now, ers-wxman1 said: NAM BL looks great. Dewpoints in the teens upstream, strong CAD, and strong waa incoming. Get ready for good thump. Looking at the overall condition configuration of the system at 60 looks like it might pull a euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 It's iceapalooza after 72 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Significant icing west of 95 on the NAM! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Sleet bomb after a 3 hour heavy snow lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snjókoma Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 NAM is interesting... burst of heavy snow, dryslot, and then sleet/rain with temperatures just below 32. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, MD Snow said: Nam looks more similar to the euro. Keeping the best to our west... Congrats Ohio. Enjoy your thump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Problem is the direct aim of initial precip keeps moving (windshield). 12z had more snow..this run more...crap. Initial snow is pretty moderate/heavy tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inverted_Trough Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 I actually don't mind sleet. It has much longer staying power on the ground than snow does. Of course, since it goes to 50 degrees the next day, that might be moot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Just now, C.A.P.E. said: Congrats Ohio. Enjoy your thump. Yup, they stole our thump, damn them! Eh, I'm not sweating it..we still have several more runs before game time. No other model has that gap the NAM has, so it's a wait and see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jewell2188 Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Just now, C.A.P.E. said: Congrats Ohio. Enjoy your thump. We are either losing our thump or it was never real to begin with Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Looks like 1-3” of snow for cities before turning to ice on the NAM. Still 2.5 days. Plenty of time to go either way. The nam does weird stuff with its precip presentation on random runs sometimes even right before game time. We’re still dessecting the end of the Nam run. Like how it goes snow/mix dryslot for most. That would be awesome to not get hrs of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Looks like about 1 to 3 before the changeover. It's quite a lot of sleet this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Well, this was my worry from post yesterday. Huge surge of moisture out of the Gulf with a pretty solid high in place, but in the wrong position! This allows for significant WAA to pump north and warm the mids to shift the concern to ice. There's a front end thump with a thin band from the low level frontogen on the leading edge of the LLJ entering the area, but after 3-6 hours, temps aloft begin to warm above freezing, shifting the focus to sleet and freezing rain. Meanwhile, the high trending stronger on guidance to the northeast pegs light surface flow out of the east, so the surface will struggle to climb in this scenario. That wedge will be hard to eradicate on that kind of setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Just NW of cities never go to plain rain on NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Just now, MillvilleWx said: Well, this was my worry from post yesterday. Huge surge of moisture out of the Gulf with a pretty solid high in place, but in the wrong position! This allows for significant WAA to pump north and warm the mids to shift the concern to ice. There's a front end thump with a thin band from the low level frontogen on the leading edge of the LLJ entering the area, but after 3-6 hours, temps aloft begin to warm above freezing, shifting the focus to sleet and freezing rain. Meanwhile, the high trending stronger on guidance to the northeast pegs light surface flow out of the east, so the surface will struggle to climb in this scenario. That wedge will be hard to eradicate on that kind of setup. Yeah, that CAD on the NAM is vicious and actually keeps getting better. We trade one thing for the other I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deer Whisperer Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 If the thump stops moving nw I’d love the NAM. A couple short hours of heavy snow, then sleet/ZR, followed by minimal rain. Having 12+ hours of cold rain after wouldn’t be ideal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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