jewell2188 Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 24 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: depends where you live and what your expectations are...If some folks up I-270 get 6-8" and then ice, that's a pretty good storm imo It’s a level 1 storm for vdot in nova. Not enough to bring all my plow trucks out of hiding....=disappointment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 23 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Ok first of all those Kutchera maps will bust low where the banding sets up. Seen it every time. Where the heavy southwest to northeast band sets up the dynamic cooling and mixing will keep the column just cold enough for snow during the heaviest thump. The kuchera is seeing the marginal temps and going assuming mixing and going super low on ratios. Where that .5+ qpf area Wednesday morning sets up will get better ratios than that. That said the real problem with the euro is it misses DC area to the NW with the heavy band of precip. It has the same look as the other guidance but it’s aiming it into southern PA instead of at DC area. It’s even aimed a little north of where I want to see it for me. It’s north of all other guidance with that right now. Would this...be an example of the fail scenario where the se ridge bumps the waa too far northwest? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Here is the hour by hour. It’s mostly just light snow until we get better rates right before change over. There is definitely a window for accumulation, we just need to juice up the waa through the area. 10z-15/16z looks good. Edit: they are out of order and 10z-13z is just light stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, jewell2188 said: It’s a level 1 storm for vdot in nova. Not enough to bring all my plow trucks out of hiding....=disappointment VDOT brined the roads in Fairfax Co last Thursday for our weekend storm that went south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jewell2188 Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Just now, LP08 said: Here is the hour by hour. It’s mostly just light snow until we get better rates right before change over. There is definitely a window for accumulation, we just need to juice up the waa through the area. 10z-15/16z looks good. The main moisture plume is pushed to our north and west. SE ridge is flexing...just another way to fail...we always find a way lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jewell2188 Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Just now, snowmagnet said: VDOT brined the roads in Fairfax Co last Thursday for our weekend storm that went south. A classic example of wasting tax payer money. And another example of “use the budget or lose it next year” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 SW PA gets the short end of the snow stick often so glad for them. I am trying new tactic of positive thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, jewell2188 said: The main moisture plume is pushed to our north and west. SE ridge is flexing...just another way to fail...we always find a way lol I'm telling ya...We solve one problem with CAD...but now we gotta worry about not having enough moisture because of the se ridge! So it goes around here...fix one issue and another comes, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 27 minutes ago, Quasievil said: Really outlines my issue with the FV3. Euro has 1-3" and the FV3 gives a foot. Whose right? That model had really struggled with snowfall output maps this winter. Scary as it becomes the GFS next month. First of all the fv3 actually is predicting about 8” in DC don’t exaggerate using that flawed snow map. The snow depth map is much more accurate. The kuchera has weird banding issues and the 10-1 has ice issues the depth one seems to match up better with what it is actually showing if you do the work and look at temps at all levels and precip and figure it out yourself so this is a better idea what it’s really saying. that’s still really good...6-9” around DC 10-12 Far NW but let’s not exaggerate it any more. It’s bad enough! But is it really that far off from the euro...both imply the change from snow to non snow is around 18z so just about all this precip before is snow. The only difference is the euro aims that moisture feed slightly NW of the FV3. At 72-84 hours that’s not a huge difference but since we are right in the area where that relatively narrow band is going to hit it matters big to us! But look at them...not that different euro 24 hour qpf ending 18z fv3 24 hour qpf same time they just disagree where that banding is aimed by about 40-50 miles. That’s all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Everyone is just assuming the euro is right all of a sudden? I feel like everyone has given up hope in the last 30 minutes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Full 1hr EURO loop: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 1 minute ago, LeesburgWx said: Everyone is just assuming the euro is right all of a sudden? I feel like everyone has given up hope in the last 30 minutes If it wasn’t the Euro then there would be less pessimism. But it fails just like the rest. Maybe less often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Just now, LeesburgWx said: Everyone is just assuming the euro is right all of a sudden? I feel like everyone has given up hope in the last 30 minutes Certainly not everyone. Just the people whose only contribution in the past few pages is to react to one single snow map... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 1 minute ago, LeesburgWx said: Everyone is just assuming the euro is right all of a sudden? I feel like everyone has given up hope in the last 30 minutes Think this run just kinda brought home a potential fail scenario that should taper our expectations for now...we gotta look for how much that se ridge flexes because, from what I understand, it could make a huge difference! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: Everyone is just assuming the euro is right all of a sudden? I feel like everyone has given up hope in the last 30 minutes Not at all. I’m still enthused by this event even if I “only” see 1-2” followed by slop. Fun to track and with the CAD setup, could be some nice surprises since we do well with CAD. The biggest question mark is where the heaviest WAA sets up as PSU noted above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Just now, gymengineer said: Certainly not everyone. Just the people whose only contribution in the past few pages is to react to one single snow map... Se ridge pushing moisture NW is a tangible threat...does it mean to just punt? No...but it is something to keep in mind. Hope it improves on future runs! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Nasty amount of ice on the Euro in the 81 corridor after a decent thump. Especially in the Winchester/Martinsburg area. Would be a real mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 15 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: Everyone is just assuming the euro is right all of a sudden? I feel like everyone has given up hope in the last 30 minutes Nope. Just dissecting another possible solution. This possible solution is more of a fail solution for us. That’s why things haven’t sounded positive the last 30 mins. You come to a solution by disecting each model run and then applying knowledge of your climo/geography and tendencies with different storm setups that you’ve watched happen before. Tracking is a marathon not a sprint. We win some and lose some. You win the same way you lose. Digesting many different model runs that arrive at a final solution. Not by reacting to each different model run as the only possible solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChasingFlakes Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 15 minutes ago, BristowWx said: SW PA gets the short end of the snow stick often so glad for them. I am trying new tactic of positive thinking. Blue knob looks right in the bullseye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Relax jma aims it south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Oh, look, more people freaking out over shifts in models 3 days away from a storm. Shocker. Truly unbelievable IF YOU WANT ALL SNOW, Every storm and a ton of it, move to buffalo or Vermont or Maine or the top of the Rockies or Sierra. You live the mid Atlantic. Stop expecting a KU every single storm. The models mostly show an appreciable snowfall for Wednesday. Yes, some show only a 2-4 type storm currently. Dark sky is forecasting 6-9” for Wednesday here in central MD. I’m thinking the potential is there for along the lines of 4-7” in central MD, 6-9” far NW and more like 2-5” by DC and along 95 and points east-southeast if things fall properly into place. Stop with the snow weenie suicide every time a model waivers, for the love of god. Mother Nature is actually punishing you for bi**hing so much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsnowman Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 One thing to keep in mind, the models aren’t going to have a good handle on where the moisture feed is going to land for at least another 18-24 hours until this Sunday night storm pulls out. In the the interim, we can just sit back and enjoy the battle between the strong HP and SE ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 25 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Nasty amount of ice on the Euro in the 81 corridor after a decent thump. Especially in the Winchester/Martinsburg area. Would be a real mess. Euro is a major winter storm for here. A lot can change with 72 hours to go but as of now we are in a good spot across guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deer Whisperer Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 im ready to be nam'ed again. too much depression from the euro going on in here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 I think 2-4” is a nice reasonable forecast for Baltimore and I’d be happy with that. We all know the Winchester to Westminster corridor is gonna be jackpotted with this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mordecai Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Can someone explain what the SE ridge is and why it's killing us? Would appreciate it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Eps fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Moderate to heavy snow is possible Wednesday morning/midday due to strong forcing from a strong baroclinic zone nearby. Also, significant ice is possible from freezing rain. Details remain uncertain at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 12 minutes ago, Mordecai said: Can someone explain what the SE ridge is and why it's killing us? Would appreciate it! Simplified answer is warm air is being spread from the southeast over the Atlantic towards our region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 33 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said: I think 2-4” is a nice reasonable forecast for Baltimore and I’d be happy with that. We all know the Winchester to Westminster corridor is gonna be jackpotted with this Don't forget the infamous Leesburg/Rockville/HoCoMoCo/NW DC deathband. That ALWAYS sets up. Thats another usual jackzone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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