stormtracker Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 I'm only up to hour 72 on the Euro? Anybody else past that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Just now, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Yea, someone explain what just happened! My guess is probably a good amount of sleet/rain with temps right around freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Just now, stormtracker said: I'm only up to hour 72 on the Euro? Anybody else past that? DC starts mixing at 78, ice N/W by 84, everyone rains from 90-on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Euro is a 4-5 hr window of snow but it just isn’t as wet as others so the “thump” isn’t very....thumpy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: People make it sound like a namming from the euro just to see this the very next post... Ha, I know. I don't know what people on here are looking at sometimes. A "thumping" of snow and it's like 1-3 inches on the snowfall map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 51 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Haven’t seen The Matrix (I know, I know, I suck). Which one puts me out of my misery? Red = harsh reality blue = blissful ignorance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 We need to start a separate thread where Kuchera maps are banned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 IMO SE ridge has gotten bigger each run for days. Primary has moved further west for days. The way we fail is the waa thump stays to our west or doesn’t get going until it’s to our north/west. The further the primary is to our west, the more likely this could be the case. Just some thoughts I have at the moment. Really hope the euro isn’t right or on to something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Just now, DCTeacherman said: My guess is probably a good amount of sleet/rain with temps right around freezing. I don't think snow maps are going to be very useful for this event. SV gives me and you 6"....To me it looks like DC gets like 0.4" QPF of snow/mix, before flipping, but even then we don't torch...33-35 overnight... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jewell2188 Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 The king just said sit down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 1 minute ago, jewell2188 said: The king just said sit down depends where you live and what your expectations are...If some folks up I-270 get 6-8" and then ice, that's a pretty good storm imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 1 minute ago, Deck Pic said: depends where you live and what your expectations are...If some folks up I-270 get 6-8" and then ice, that's a pretty good storm imo 0z had dc north 4-8” with some 8-10 lollies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Really outlines my issue with the FV3. Euro has 1-3" and the FV3 gives a foot. Whose right? That model had really struggled with snowfall output maps this winter. Scary as it becomes the GFS next month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Ok first of all those Kutchera maps will bust low where the banding sets up. Seen it every time. Where the heavy southwest to northeast band sets up the dynamic cooling and mixing will keep the column just cold enough for snow during the heaviest thump. The kuchera is seeing the marginal temps and going assuming mixing and going super low on ratios. Where that .5+ qpf area Wednesday morning sets up will get better ratios than that. That said the real problem with the euro is it misses DC area to the NW with the heavy band of precip. It has the same look as the other guidance but it’s aiming it into southern PA instead of at DC area. It’s even aimed a little north of where I want to see it for me. It’s north of all other guidance with that right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Just now, Quasievil said: Really outlines my issue with the FV3. Euro has 1-3" and the FV3 gives a foot. Whose right? That model had really struggled with snowfall output maps this winter. Scary as it becomes the GFS next month. Well if you had to put money on it then the Euro is the number you would play. Nice if it would have held better from 0z. SE ridge is snake eyes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 I'd be much more bearish if we had to create our own cold air. This isn't a garden variety air mass...Much of NY and New England will be in the single digits and below zero Wednesday morning... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 18 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Very meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Just now, wasnow215 said: Very meh That map is wrong....The actual run doesn't give the ridges up 270 only 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 My guess is Kuchera looks low due to the 700 temps. The cold push is impressive on the Euro though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 If the Kuchera maps are the problem then somebody post a non Kuchera map. Or one not from WB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Does look more typical of storms in our subforum. Same difference for some people though, but a much bigger deal up north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Not that it is worth much, but I think the 10:1 snow map is actually more realistic than Kuchera Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Reasonable expectation for cities is 1-3 at this point. 2 to 4 isn't out of the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 So it appears the euro is now the most north of all the models for the heavier precip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Still time for improvement. I like that entrenched cold air mass. CAD is for real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Reasonable expectation for cities is 1-3 at this point. 2 to 4 isn't out of the question. Agree, sitting good right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Is Chill still “holding out” (meaning like football haha) for this storm?? Are there at least ‘contract talks’ ongoing??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 22 minutes ago, MD Snow said: IMO SE ridge has gotten bigger each run for days. Primary has moved further west for days. The way we fail is the waa thump stays to our west or doesn’t get going until it’s to our north/west. The further the primary is to our west, the more likely this could be the case. Just some thoughts I have at the moment. Really hope the euro isn’t right or on to something. I agree...the biggest fail threat is that stj moisture feed gets directed to our NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: Is Chill still “holding out” (meaning like football haha) for this storm?? Are there at least ‘contract talks’ ongoing??? Not sure what Robert is up to, but not getting invested in a storm that doesn't start until wednesday morning, is what most well-adjusted humans would do....Then there is us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 9 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Reasonable expectation for cities is 1-3 at this point. 2 to 4 isn't out of the question. I was about to call 1-3 inches a bit low of a forcast...but after what someone said about the se ridge...might end up being right, unfortunately...oh that dang ridge!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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