jaydreb Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 CMC looks improved. Nice thump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 There is going to be a good thump with this on the front end, likely burst of heavy snow for most areas. The waa is strong. I would lean toward the guidance that holds the CAD in longer. Many times there can be a surprise with snow amounts in these situations...higher than lower before the changeover. As for freezing rain, given the higher precipitation rates and temps only barely sub 32, likely not a major icing event for all but perhaps the I-81 corridor and into Frederick and Loudoun. For significant icing you need lower precip rates, temps at least 28F, and a longer drawn out event. Those are damaging to trees and power lines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 FWIW... GGEM trended "better" on the snow accums department Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 4 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: There is going to be a good thump with this on the front end, likely burst of heavy snow for most areas. The waa is strong. I would lean toward the guidance that holds the CAD in longer. Many times there can be a surprise with snow amounts in these situations...higher than lower before the changeover. As for freezing rain, given the higher precipitation rates and temps only barely sub 32, likely not a major icing event for all but perhaps the I-81 corridor and into Frederick and Loudoun. For significant icing you need lower precip rates, temps at least 28F, and a longer drawn out event. Those are damaging to trees and power lines. I was at 32 for pretty much the entire duration of last week and several branches came down. Power outages . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 You've got to love these trends for the onset! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 13 minutes ago, yoda said: FWIW... GGEM trended "better" on the snow accums department Way to understate that one lol...it does look a touch better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Here are trends for the changeover time period from the fv3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 56 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: The CAD is ALWAYS under modeled. Tack on an hour or two to whatever changeover time it shows. Agreed. And this means that the 16 inches the nam is giving me should be more like 20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 8 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Here are trends for the changeover time period from the fv3. Changeover is later but does onset remain the same? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 GEFS continue to improve every run... showing more and more frozen. I can see the north trend beginning for Charlottesville though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 We were talking last night about this one juicing up a bit on the models as the event approaches. Really good agreement now on a juicy waa heading into decent CAD. Looks like a fun event for Wednesday. Heavy snow at times with maybe a crust of ice on top to help survive any rain we get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Someone is going to get a good thump from this and be surprised by totals. There will be a 50 mile wide area west southwest to east northeast that easily gets warning criteria snow/ice. Around that can be some accumulation but rather disappointing compared to who ends up in that band. It’s way to soon to pin down. And don’t assume it’s nw if the city. That band ended up right over DC in late Feb 2007. (Not the v-day storm the one after). I’ve seen it aim into central VA before too. Yea climo favors the typical spots but I’ve seen it buck that trend in these setups before. Just have to wait and see where it ends up. Gfs is trending north though. I would say the max stripe likely ends up somewhere between EZF and southern PA. The goalposts are narrowing, and I think everyone in that boundary gets some snow but still too much time to pin down where the 5”+ “shock” zone is and the more mundane 1-4” area around that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 16 minutes ago, jaydreb said: Changeover is later but does onset remain the same? Time-wise yes. I posted the map to show the trend of the CAD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 5 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: GEFS continue to improve every run... showing more and more frozen. I can see the north trend beginning for Charlottesville though. Do you want the red pill or the blue pill? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Someone is going to get a good thump from this and be surprised by totals. There will be a 50 mile wide area west southwest to east northeast that easily gets warning criteria snow/ice. Around that can be some accumulation but rather disappointing compared to who ends up in that band. It’s way to soon to pin down. And don’t assume it’s nw if the city. That band ended up right over DC in late Feb 2007. (Not the v-day storm the one after). I’ve seen it aim into central VA before too. Yea climo favors the typical spots but I’ve seen it buck that trend in these setups before. Just have to wait and see where it ends up. Gfs is trending north though. I would say the max stripe likely ends up somewhere between EZF and southern PA. The goalposts are narrowing, and I think everyone in that boundary gets some snow but still too much time to pin down where the 5”+ “shock” zone is and the more mundane 1-4” area around that is. Let’s be honest. We all know who’s going to jackpot. The one that shall not be named who’s MIA...but is reading this right now while laying on his couch in his Sunday best candy apple red speedo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Do you want the red pill or the blue pill? Haven’t seen The Matrix (I know, I know, I suck). Which one puts me out of my misery? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rvarookie Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 I don’t mind if I keep missing the snow, but these cold rain hits are going to make me go Ji. Just give me the dry cold and spare me please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hyphnx Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 NAM is showing Central Virginia not moving out of the cold stuff until around 5pm. Morning and afternoon commute will be horrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 28 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Someone is going to get a good thump from this and be surprised by totals. There will be a 50 mile wide area west southwest to east northeast that easily gets warning criteria snow/ice. Around that can be some accumulation but rather disappointing compared to who ends up in that band. It’s way to soon to pin down. And don’t assume it’s nw if the city. That band ended up right over DC in late Feb 2007. (Not the v-day storm the one after). I’ve seen it aim into central VA before too. Yea climo favors the typical spots but I’ve seen it buck that trend in these setups before. Just have to wait and see where it ends up. Gfs is trending north though. I would say the max stripe likely ends up somewhere between EZF and southern PA. The goalposts are narrowing, and I think everyone in that boundary gets some snow but still too much time to pin down where the 5”+ “shock” zone is and the more mundane 1-4” area around that is. I can tell ya where it wont be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 I was looking all over the web for model archives from 2007 for 850mb/sfc. No luck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowFreak2000 Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Anyone have the ukmet snowmap? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Danajames Posted February 17, 2019 Author Share Posted February 17, 2019 1 hour ago, Rvarookie said: I don’t mind if I keep missing the snow, but these cold rain hits are going to make me go Ji. Just give me the dry cold and spare me please My exact sentiment. I feel your pain, believe me. I was looking at the almanac on the back page of the Sun sports this morning and noticed that the least amount of precipitation for February was 0.33" in 2002. Man, I wish we could have a month like that, preferably March but the realist in me knows the odds of that are next to zero. Not with this pattern of relentless precipitation that's been ongoing since a year ago. At least you got one decent snowstorm this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris_B Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 After a couple consistent runs, schools and Gov’t on Wednesday looking closed. Nice 3 day work week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Just now, losetoa6 said: Looks like Euro has a better cold push already at 60 The cold air push is impressive...Even I don't get above freezing until Wednesday evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Snowing everywhere expect NE MD by 72, thumping Central VA. Headed up towards DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hyphnx Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Snowing everywhere expect NE MD by 72, thumping Central VA. Headed up towards DC. Thumping?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: People make it sound like a namming from the euro just to see this the very next post... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Euro looks like a slightly earlier than 12z Wed start. Snow moving in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 1 minute ago, LeesburgWx said: People make it sound like a namming from the euro just to see this the very next post... Yea, someone explain what just happened! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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