usedtobe Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 47 minutes ago, stormtracker said: lol, NAM has frozen for about 80% of the storm. Nasty freezing rain sometime between 18z and 22. But that's a unicorn. It's not going to be that bad with heavy rain and temps at 31-33 degrees. Yep, 31 or 32 doesn't work with heavy rain since the freezing process releases latent heat. The snow maps from the NAM are crazy and not very realistic with this type of pattern. Think it must include sleet in its forecast amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, usedtobe said: Yep, 31 or 32 doesn't work with heavy rain since the freezing process releases latent heat. The snow maps from the NAM are crazy and not very realistic with this type of pattern. Think it must include sleet in its forecast amounts. Wes is here, everybody drink. It's officially a party. And you are correct, that ludicrous map does include sleet. If we can manage 2-4 before the changeover, I'm good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Well, GFS is quicker vs 2 previous runs. I'll assume the changeover will be the same...probably only 1 panel of snow. Man, what I would give for the High to be 200 miles wester Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 1 minute ago, usedtobe said: Yep, 31 or 32 doesn't work with heavy rain since the freezing process releases latent heat. The snow maps from the NAM are crazy and not very realistic with this type of pattern. Think it must include sleet in its forecast amounts. Come on .. can you at least give me a hour to pretend like it is real? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 GFS has become such a Deb since the FV3 came along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Deleted the earlier post to make sure that the GEFS wasn't showing any snow/mix Friday, which it isn't, so I think this still checks out. GEFS has been steadily increasing the amount of "snow" shown in its algorithm. If you use this as a way of simply showing the amount of mixed, semi-wintry precip that might occur, it seems to bode decently. Whatever its usefulness, I still always like to see it showing increased potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 5 minutes ago, usedtobe said: Yep, 31 or 32 doesn't work with heavy rain since the freezing process releases latent heat. The snow maps from the NAM are crazy and not very realistic with this type of pattern. Think it must include sleet in its forecast amounts. Pivotal maps do a good job teasing out how much would be snow vs sleet/freezing rain. Still a nice storm verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jewell2188 Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Wes is here, everybody drink. It's officially a party. And you are correct, that ludicrous map does include sleet. If we can manage 2-4 before the changeover, I'm good. What are the chances of the “thump” over achieving like we’ve seen many times around here!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshfsu123 Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Still snowing at HR 78 (18z) according to Instant Weather Maps on 12z GFS... started around HR 70 (09z/10z). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Oh yeah. 2 panels of snow on the GFS.and pretty moderate too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Feel like we have to hash this out every time, but the NCEP models generate a snow water equivalent that is generated from all frozen hydrometeors (snow + sleet). TT then applies a 10:1 ratio to that, which does not work if you have a good amount of sleet. But TT also displays total positive snow depth change which is what the model actually thinks is accumulating on the ground. It sometimes runs a bit low, but it's WAY, WAY more representative of the model is doing in this mix (or wet snow) events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Just now, jewell2188 said: What are the chances of the “thump” over achieving like we’ve seen many times around here!? Probably will over perform somewhere in the forum area, but like psu mentioned earlier, it'll likely be a game time placement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 1 minute ago, jewell2188 said: What are the chances of the “thump” over achieving like we’ve seen many times around here!? If models are overdoing how fast the cold is scoured out or underdoing the CAD...I mean, it's possible. Wes could go into details Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Just now, nw baltimore wx said: Probably will over perform somewhere in the forum area, but like psu mentioned earlier, it'll likely be a game time placement. Seemed like last week the jackpot area was Bel airand havre de grace.. I guess the cad retreated sw to ne. I had about 8 hours of freezing rain in catonsville. I am thinking we might see a similar gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 The CAD is ALWAYS under modeled. Tack on an hour or two to whatever changeover time it shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 15 minutes ago, usedtobe said: Yep, 31 or 32 doesn't work with heavy rain since the freezing process releases latent heat. The snow maps from the NAM are crazy and not very realistic with this type of pattern. Think it must include sleet in its forecast amounts. You had mentioned in your cwg article that there is sort of a max potential with the current pattern/ set up. And the max potential is clearly nothing like what the fv3/ nam output looks like. What is it about the pattern that leads you to this conclusion? Is it the hp placement/ the fact that it slides.. is it the antecent air mass? Is the lack of blocking? The fact that we really aren't seeing transfer to the coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshfsu123 Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 12z GFS definitely looks better... looks like 4-8 in DC area, north to south, on TT clown maps at HR 78. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Just now, Joshfsu123 said: 12z GFS definitely looks better... looks like 4-8 in DC area, north to south, on TT clown maps at HR 78. Pivotal has Kuchera maps... this is pretty great for Kuchera. Better than the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 We lose 700s and 850s sometime after 18z on the GFS. Surface hangs on til just after 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 FV3 maps: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Think we could be looking at another Valentine's Day 2007 event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Last nights Euro and everything so far on the 12Z runs points to a 6-8 snow to some ice type event in the far NW burbs. The Euro, FV3 and NAM's are beautiful out this way. As modeled it has a chance to be the biggest storm of the year for my area and would get me to climo. Wish this was tomorrow nights runs. But pretty good agreement for 3 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Looks like we (DC) lose 850s at 19z on FV3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, jaydreb said: Looks like we (DC) lose 850s at 19z on FV3. Every run we are improving, let's see what the King is cooking up later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 6 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Think we could be looking at another Valentine's Day 2007 event? No. This will be significantly less impressive than that. Probably much closer to our typical few inches of snow to slop type deals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 4 minutes ago, Solution Man said: Every run we are improving, let's see what the King is cooking up later Hey Ji.. looks like we finally get a good trending moving in to game time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: No. This will be significantly less impressive than that. Probably much closer to our typical few inches of snow to slop type deals. Yeah, this has 1-2 inches of slop written all over it for DC proper. If we can get lucky and do 3-6 that would be cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Valentine's 2007 was essentially a glacier for many many days after the storm. This coming event is much closer to the last week on the spectrum than anything close to Valentine's 2007... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 4 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Valentine's 2007 was essentially a glacier for many many days after the storm. This coming event is much closer to the last week on the spectrum than anything close to Valentine's 2007... Judging by the thermals, I think it will be better than last week, but certainly a far cry from '07. The high needs to be more stout for that to occur and that pig SE ridge isn't doing any favors. Still could get pretty glacier like for NW of 95 with the typical areas in the cross-hairs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Just now, MillvilleWx said: Judging by the thermals, I think it will be better than last week, but certainly a far cry from '07. The high needs to be more stout for that to occur and that pig SE ridge isn't doing any favors. Still could get pretty glacier like for NW of 95 with the typical areas in the cross-hairs. I agree with it being better than last week. But yeah - we aren't getting another '07 without STRONG CAD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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