PhineasC Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 On 2/18/2019 at 4:07 AM, stormtracker said: Huh?? Expand GFS and Euro will not be showing what the NAM and ICON showed. Pretty basic stuff... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 On 2/18/2019 at 4:12 AM, PhineasC said: GFS and Euro will not be showing what the NAM and ICON showed. Pretty basic stuff... Expand GFS is pretty lame north of DC, but the Euro has had some impressive runs lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 On 2/18/2019 at 4:12 AM, PhineasC said: GFS and Euro will not be showing what the NAM and ICON showed. Pretty basic stuff... Expand You are always a ton of fun to have around. Apparently the FV-3 doesn't make a difference to you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 On 2/18/2019 at 4:12 AM, PhineasC said: GFS and Euro will not be showing what the NAM and ICON showed. Pretty basic stuff... Expand Ah, ok. 1 of the 2 seals it. Got it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 On 2/18/2019 at 4:13 AM, Fozz said: GFS is pretty lame north of DC, but the Euro has had some impressive runs lately. Expand I don't know what he is talking about. The 12Z Euro showed 7" for us and then ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schinz Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 The NAM did well up this way with last week's event. There is no recent to discount it here this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 On 2/18/2019 at 4:14 AM, stormtracker said: Ah, ok. 1 of the 2 seals it. Got it. Expand Nothing is "sealed" but since when are you buying the NAM and ICON? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 On 2/18/2019 at 4:15 AM, ravensrule said: I don't know what he is talking about. The 12Z Euro showed 7" for us and then ice. Expand I am clearly talking about right now and not a run from 10 hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 On 2/18/2019 at 4:15 AM, ravensrule said: I don't know what he is talking about. The 12Z Euro showed 7" for us and then ice. Expand Pretty sure the 18z Euro was just as good too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 On 2/18/2019 at 4:15 AM, PhineasC said: I am clearly talking about right now and not a run from 10 hours ago. Expand The 18Z Euro was 4 hours ago. You need to calm yourself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 On 2/18/2019 at 4:02 AM, NorthArlington101 said: Conversely, the FV3 is more typical of what one would expect. Kuchera CHO: 2.6” + 0.31” FRZA DCA: 5.7” + 0.27” FRZA FDK: 12.3” + 0.5” FRZA BWI: 8.7” + 0.24” FRZA Big differences. Expand OKV: 10.8" + 0.73" FZRA Should we start working on the calculation for how much to reduce this model's totals when it goes live, the way we always did with the ETA/ NAM ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 On 2/18/2019 at 4:13 AM, ravensrule said: You are always a ton of fun to have around. Apparently the FV-3 doesn't make a difference to you. Expand I barely post. No clue why you have decided it's your job to police up the forum. If you want to throw a ton of weight behind the NAM, ICON, and horrid FV3, feel free to wax your shovel now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 On 2/18/2019 at 4:15 AM, PhineasC said: Nothing is "sealed" but since when are you buying the NAM and ICON? Expand I'm not, although we all know that the NAM handles CAD better as we get close in. Just wondering why an unconfirmed run of the GFS means much right now. If I had to bet, Euro would probably be closer to the GFS than the NAM/Icon...but imma wait until it runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 On 2/18/2019 at 4:17 AM, PhineasC said: I barely post. No clue why you have decided it's your job to police up the forum. If you want to throw a ton of weight behind the NAM, ICON, and horrid FV3, feel free to wax your shovel now. Expand If 18,973 posts are barely posting, i would hate to see you actually start posting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 On 2/18/2019 at 4:15 AM, schinz said: The NAM did well up this way with last week's event. There is no recent to discount it here this week. Expand The NAM can be trusted beyond 48-60 if and only if it either agrees with the Euro/EPS and or consistently shows almost the same idea run to run. If it changes notably at all from one run to the next in that range it’s generally out to lunch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 On 2/18/2019 at 4:18 AM, ravensrule said: If 18,973 posts are barely posting, i would hate to see you actually start posting. Expand 18,000 of them are from PR years ago. This little exchange is boring. Clearly folks want to have party time in here tonight. Don't let me stop you. Adios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 Ever since the FV3 has come on the scene the GFS has been a Deb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 On 2/18/2019 at 4:18 AM, ravensrule said: If 18,973 posts are barely posting, i would hate to see you actually start posting. Expand And people wonder why Bob has left the forum for a bit (and others have just plain left)...smh We gotta do better than this, people!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 On 2/18/2019 at 4:15 AM, PhineasC said: Nothing is "sealed" but since when are you buying the NAM and ICON? Expand Did you not see stormtracker's post in regards to the ICON? We worship it now, and for good reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 If @Deck Picis around and posting, as he just did earlier... then you know there is potential for a nice storm. Unless he says next ofc lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 It’s only Sunday. A person of sound judgment would wait until tomorrow night when the solutions will likely be completely different. So really no reason to get worked up one way or the other as far as the result. Fun to track, but it could be a huge bust for many of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 The GFS was fine. It’s handle on CAD is well known, so you have to adjust to compensate. Euro run is important to see how it handles the general Synoptics. NAM has been consistent and so has ICON/FV-3. I’m not an ICON fan at all, but consistency is always a plus. The front end thump is certainly still in play, but I’d be a little wary of the changeover to sleet/zr a little quicker than what is currently modeled once we close in on the event. Stronger CAD is helping a lot. Need that to remain. No matter how this evolves, a high impact event is increasingly likely. NW of the fall line will likely maintain 100% frozen in this setup. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 On 2/18/2019 at 4:39 AM, yoda said: If @Deck Picis around and posting, as he just did earlier... then you know there is potential for a nice storm. Unless he says next ofc lol Expand I’m pretty bullish. But my expectations are different from some others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 On 2/18/2019 at 4:42 AM, MillvilleWx said: The GFS was fine. It’s handle on CAD is well known, so you have to adjust to compensate. Euro run is important to see how it handles the general Synoptics. NAM has been consistent and so has ICON/FV-3. I’m not an ICON fan at all, but consistency is always a plus. The front end thump is certainly still in play, but I’d be a little wary of the changeover to sleet/zr a little quicker than what is currently modeled once we close in on the event. Stronger CAD is helping a lot. Need that to remain. No matter how this evolves, a high impact event is increasingly likely. NW of the fall line will likely maintain 100% frozen in this setup. . Expand Above 600’ NW of the cities could kill it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 On 2/18/2019 at 4:17 AM, WVclimo said: OKV: 10.8" + 0.73" FZRA Should we start working on the calculation for how much to reduce this model's totals when it goes live, the way we always did with the ETA/ NAM ? Expand It is just as wet as the nam. But it's got screwed up ratios. I am still sticking with 5-8 throughout the region with a coating of ice on top. That is just what our climo would say for events like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 On 2/18/2019 at 4:44 AM, Deck Pic said: Above 600’ NW of the cities could kill it. No question. Areas along and west of MD 27 could see some Warning criteria snow, followed by a fair amount of sleet/ZR. The 81 corridor will be beyond ugly for travel on Wednesday. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 I’d like to see the euro shift the slug south and show us proper respect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 On 2/18/2019 at 4:42 AM, Deck Pic said: I’m pretty bullish. But my expectations are different from some others. Expand Understood. I just like seeing you post... you are a pretty good bellwether as to a nice snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 My thinking on this remains the same from earlier today, near classic CAD setup, strong front end thump with high rates, then icing, locally significant west of 95 and especially Loudoun, Frederick to I-81. Solid 2-4 in the cities, 4-8 over the suburbs, jackpot 10” yet to be determined. Stick to guidance that better handles CAD which would be high resolution. Details to be worked out. Things can change, but the signal is there. I’m all in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 On 2/18/2019 at 4:52 AM, ers-wxman1 said: My thinking on this remains the same from earlier today, near classic CAD setup, strong front end thump with high rates, then icing, locally significant west of 95 and especially Loudoun, Frederick to I-81. Solid 2-4 in the cities, 4-8 over the suburbs, jackpot 10” yet to be determined. Stick to guidance that better handles CAD which would be high resolution. Details to be worked out. Things can change, but the signal is there. I’m all in. Expand You're never this bullish. This is hUge! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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