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Feb 18 overrunning threat


ORH_wxman
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32 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

BOX from this morning.

image.thumb.png.d7917312e4cee3e66c26a914b87f78cb.png

Ya..I consulted them

..they are betting on the seasonal trend of shreddarola and drying out more *as models have done 36-out . 

Keep praying this is weakened and stretched just enuf for some weenie band ...I’d say that’s about a 25% shot w the dry compressed  zonal flow ...let’s here the bitching 

Weather prediction center currently has a 30 -40% shot for 2” plus for CNE down to about pike NW of 495 (only slightly less inside 495) . 

I see 1-2” as best bet 

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9 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

I agree with Tip RE: inverted trough/norlun at the end of the event. The stretching the shortwave aloft makes it a prime candidate for that. What helps too though is that there's some ML fronto that gets stuck in there so it wouldn't be a super narrow band I wouldn't think. You'd have this general area of light to moderate snow hanging back. 

Need to get the Euro on board though. The EPS have actually been more bullish on this than the OP euro. 

It's funny you mentioned that ... I just said that exact same thing in my internal monologue ( ...that then aired to the straw man in the room.. heh)... 

This system is not really just an "over-running" ...if by that we mean a stationary boundary with some oblique isentropic steady overlopping.  This has a primary up to about ~ Erie PA ...then a clear Miller B, E of Jersey that scoots ENE SE of ISP ... and that frontogenetic look that unzips west is definitely tied into that overall mechanical evolution.

Thing is ..we tend to ( ... or perhaps have gotten used to) seeing that whole cinema in the models with lots of isobars and intensity overall.  But from where I'm sitting ...this is a pretty clear Miller B system that's just happening to transpire down the ranks of overall potency.

Be that as it may, the initial isentropic lift transitions to more mid level "magic" and even a semblance of CCB ... and whether this thing then goes on to merely mimic a Norlun or is (most likely) a hybrid between that and some weak lag-back f-gen forcing ... and to what amount of each, heh... at this point, that's sneaking up here as a solid 24 hour performing winter appeal that even in my stolid eye-roller tendencies, I can admit is sorely needed for this particular social media bastion of straight-jacket rockers. haha.  

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15 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It's funny you mentioned that ... I just said that exact same thing in my internal monologue ( ...that then aired to the straw man in the room.. heh)... 

This system is not really just an "over-running" ...if by that we mean a stationary boundary with some oblique isentropic steady overlopping.  This has a primary up to about ~ Erie PA ...then a clear Miller B, E of Jersey that scoots ENE SE of ISP ... and that frontogenetic look that unzips west is definitely tied into that overall mechanical evolution.

Thing is ..we tend to ( ... or perhaps have gotten used to) seeing that whole cinema in the models with lots of isobars and intensity overall.  But from where I'm sitting ...this is a pretty clear Miller B system that's just happening to transpire down the ranks of overall potency.

Be that as it may, the initial isentropic lift transitions to more mid level "magic" and even a semblance of CCB ... and whether this thing then goes on to merely mimic a Norlun or is (most likely) a hybrid between that and some weak lag-back f-gen forcing ... and to what amount of each, heh... at this point, that's sneaking up here as a solid 24 hour performing winter appeal that even in my stolid eye-roller tendencies, I can admit is sorely needed for this particular social media bastion of straight-jacket rockers. haha.  

It's definitely been slowly evolving into more of a typical Norwegian cyclone type in the last few runs...Miller B style transfer. Still pretty stretched upper trough so it's kind of a hybrid between that and an IVT but the subtle trend of stronger mechanics is there. 

As if on cue, the 12z NAM is in with its strongest run yet. 

 

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Just now, Kitzbuhel Craver said:

If this thing keeps amping and we are gonna taint...

I def think south coast has to watch it and maybe even a little inland from south coast. But this compresses pretty fast so there's gonna be a pretty hard ceiling on how far north any of that stuff tickles. 

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1 minute ago, crownweather said:

I know the CIPS Analogs should be taken with a "grain of salt", but some impressive analog dates for Sun night-Mon.  http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=EC&fhr=F048&rundt=2019021600  .  Thoughts?? 

I'm not totally surprised. There's some reasonable upside due to the gulf moisture connection. This is a pretty potent shortwave out in the middle of the country that dampens as it heads east. If it holds together a little bit longer as has been the trend, the mechanics and moisture can produce some pretty good snows with the good confluence to the north enhancing the frontogensis. 

So yeah...in short, there is pretty good upside to this one considering the expectation. 

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

That has the look of getting the goods north which I liked to see.

The RGEM down here would be like 5 inches at LGA and nothing at JFK lol.  I’m not sure.  When does the RGEM NOT verify too amped at this range?  It’s fairly rare to not see whatever it shows at 40-48 tick south in the end 

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Just now, moneypitmike said:

Doesn't 84 intersect the Pike?

I think the jack will be the typical central/NW highlands of MA that one sees in similar set ups.

Places like ORH and east slope of berks may do quite well after the intial WAA pulse...the flow turns easterly in that sfc to 900mb range and that is good for them. 

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31 minutes ago, crownweather said:

I know the CIPS Analogs should be taken with a "grain of salt", but some impressive analog dates for Sun night-Mon.  http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=EC&fhr=F048&rundt=2019021600  .  Thoughts?? 

I don’t know if 11/27/02 is in there but this reminds me somewhat of that system.  Probably not seeing 7-10 inch amounts with this though.  I had a friend in Tolland at the time I think they saw 9 inches 

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