moneypitmike Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Nice map BOX from this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 Just now, moneypitmike said: BOX from this morning. Start high and adjust upwards 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 16 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Start high and adjust upwards ALY agrees... their upper end is 4-6 Berks to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 32 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: BOX from this morning. Ya..I consulted them ..they are betting on the seasonal trend of shreddarola and drying out more *as models have done 36-out . Keep praying this is weakened and stretched just enuf for some weenie band ...I’d say that’s about a 25% shot w the dry compressed zonal flow ...let’s here the bitching Weather prediction center currently has a 30 -40% shot for 2” plus for CNE down to about pike NW of 495 (only slightly less inside 495) . I see 1-2” as best bet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 16, 2019 Author Share Posted February 16, 2019 Box will be bringing those up next update. 100% lock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Box will be bringing those up next update. 100% lock. Lock in the lock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Someone will get more than 3" and this has the look of QPF queens getting faked out on the nrn edges. That wasn't a forecast..I was giving 00z Euro details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 BOX /Nocera humped the Euro. He got burned by the HIV 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 9 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: I agree with Tip RE: inverted trough/norlun at the end of the event. The stretching the shortwave aloft makes it a prime candidate for that. What helps too though is that there's some ML fronto that gets stuck in there so it wouldn't be a super narrow band I wouldn't think. You'd have this general area of light to moderate snow hanging back. Need to get the Euro on board though. The EPS have actually been more bullish on this than the OP euro. It's funny you mentioned that ... I just said that exact same thing in my internal monologue ( ...that then aired to the straw man in the room.. heh)... This system is not really just an "over-running" ...if by that we mean a stationary boundary with some oblique isentropic steady overlopping. This has a primary up to about ~ Erie PA ...then a clear Miller B, E of Jersey that scoots ENE SE of ISP ... and that frontogenetic look that unzips west is definitely tied into that overall mechanical evolution. Thing is ..we tend to ( ... or perhaps have gotten used to) seeing that whole cinema in the models with lots of isobars and intensity overall. But from where I'm sitting ...this is a pretty clear Miller B system that's just happening to transpire down the ranks of overall potency. Be that as it may, the initial isentropic lift transitions to more mid level "magic" and even a semblance of CCB ... and whether this thing then goes on to merely mimic a Norlun or is (most likely) a hybrid between that and some weak lag-back f-gen forcing ... and to what amount of each, heh... at this point, that's sneaking up here as a solid 24 hour performing winter appeal that even in my stolid eye-roller tendencies, I can admit is sorely needed for this particular social media bastion of straight-jacket rockers. haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 16, 2019 Author Share Posted February 16, 2019 15 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: It's funny you mentioned that ... I just said that exact same thing in my internal monologue ( ...that then aired to the straw man in the room.. heh)... This system is not really just an "over-running" ...if by that we mean a stationary boundary with some oblique isentropic steady overlopping. This has a primary up to about ~ Erie PA ...then a clear Miller B, E of Jersey that scoots ENE SE of ISP ... and that frontogenetic look that unzips west is definitely tied into that overall mechanical evolution. Thing is ..we tend to ( ... or perhaps have gotten used to) seeing that whole cinema in the models with lots of isobars and intensity overall. But from where I'm sitting ...this is a pretty clear Miller B system that's just happening to transpire down the ranks of overall potency. Be that as it may, the initial isentropic lift transitions to more mid level "magic" and even a semblance of CCB ... and whether this thing then goes on to merely mimic a Norlun or is (most likely) a hybrid between that and some weak lag-back f-gen forcing ... and to what amount of each, heh... at this point, that's sneaking up here as a solid 24 hour performing winter appeal that even in my stolid eye-roller tendencies, I can admit is sorely needed for this particular social media bastion of straight-jacket rockers. haha. It's definitely been slowly evolving into more of a typical Norwegian cyclone type in the last few runs...Miller B style transfer. Still pretty stretched upper trough so it's kind of a hybrid between that and an IVT but the subtle trend of stronger mechanics is there. As if on cue, the 12z NAM is in with its strongest run yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 Nice weenie band sig into NH there on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 Pickles is going go down faster than he does on his GILFs, not that there is anything wrong with that Nam ramps Euro Ramps interesting 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 12z NAM with a high end advisory event region wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitzbuhel Craver Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Pickles is going go down faster than he does on his GILFs, not that there is anything wrong with that Nam ramps Euro Ramps interesting If this thing keeps amping and we are gonna taint... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 3K NAM nice too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 16, 2019 Author Share Posted February 16, 2019 Just now, Kitzbuhel Craver said: If this thing keeps amping and we are gonna taint... I def think south coast has to watch it and maybe even a little inland from south coast. But this compresses pretty fast so there's gonna be a pretty hard ceiling on how far north any of that stuff tickles. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 1 hour ago, moneypitmike said: BOX from this morning. I am somewhat surprised by the low figures shown for Boston. This is the kind of system that can deliver 2"-4" snow to Boston and surrounding areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crownweather Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 I know the CIPS Analogs should be taken with a "grain of salt", but some impressive analog dates for Sun night-Mon. http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=EC&fhr=F048&rundt=2019021600 . Thoughts?? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 16, 2019 Author Share Posted February 16, 2019 1 minute ago, crownweather said: I know the CIPS Analogs should be taken with a "grain of salt", but some impressive analog dates for Sun night-Mon. http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=EC&fhr=F048&rundt=2019021600 . Thoughts?? I'm not totally surprised. There's some reasonable upside due to the gulf moisture connection. This is a pretty potent shortwave out in the middle of the country that dampens as it heads east. If it holds together a little bit longer as has been the trend, the mechanics and moisture can produce some pretty good snows with the good confluence to the north enhancing the frontogensis. So yeah...in short, there is pretty good upside to this one considering the expectation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 34 minutes ago, Kitzbuhel Craver said: If this thing keeps amping and we are gonna taint... Fear the season. Anyone S and E of 84 will taint or have weak snow growth. This will be a Pike special. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 I don't even care about jacking. Just give me a few inches of all snow. So tired of tainting. Hoping it doesn't ramp much more..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 RGEM still likes central-southern CT and RI to the Cape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 Just now, SnowGoose69 said: RGEM still likes central-southern CT and RI to the Cape That has the look of getting the goods north which I liked to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Fear the season. Anyone S and E of 84 will taint or have weak snow growth. This will be a Pike special. Has all the signs of 84 to pike max amount Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: That has the look of getting the goods north which I liked to see. The RGEM down here would be like 5 inches at LGA and nothing at JFK lol. I’m not sure. When does the RGEM NOT verify too amped at this range? It’s fairly rare to not see whatever it shows at 40-48 tick south in the end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Has all the signs of 84 to pike max amount Doesn't 84 intersect the Pike? I think the jack will be the typical central/NW highlands of MA that one sees in similar set ups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 16, 2019 Author Share Posted February 16, 2019 Just now, moneypitmike said: Doesn't 84 intersect the Pike? I think the jack will be the typical central/NW highlands of MA that one sees in similar set ups. Places like ORH and east slope of berks may do quite well after the intial WAA pulse...the flow turns easterly in that sfc to 900mb range and that is good for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 Just now, moneypitmike said: Doesn't 84 intersect the Pike? I think the jack will be the typical central/NW highlands of MA that one sees in similar set ups. I'll take Mitch-Pit1-AFN for the jack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 31 minutes ago, crownweather said: I know the CIPS Analogs should be taken with a "grain of salt", but some impressive analog dates for Sun night-Mon. http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=EC&fhr=F048&rundt=2019021600 . Thoughts?? I don’t know if 11/27/02 is in there but this reminds me somewhat of that system. Probably not seeing 7-10 inch amounts with this though. I had a friend in Tolland at the time I think they saw 9 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 We snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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