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Feb 18 overrunning threat


ORH_wxman
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5 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

1-2" pike south.....except 3" on ACK

Agree Ray

i see this as being a flat tracking low once it tries to “get going” off NJ...weak and flat track with snows best for S of Pike folks. Could end up being just S coast sorta deal as trend for these shredded things usually is flatter last 48 hrs this year .

looks like there is an initial band into Central NY state over to ALB that sorta weakens a bit as Weak low south of Long Island tries to do something . This will prob give W SNE 1-2 as well and maybe the rte 2 crowd 1/2-1 as we go east.

im not speculating on where a potential Norlun sets up

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4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Someone will get more than 3" and this has the look of QPF queens getting faked out on the nrn edges. 

The stretched shortwave will give a nice weenie band that probably rots for many hours on Monday morning. I actually think the south coast may have to watch for taint for a time. 

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

The stretched shortwave will give a nice weenie hands that probably rots for many hours on Monday morning. I actually think the south coast may have to watch for taint for a time. 

I agree. With that taint creeping north, the initial WAA may give a better thump.

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5 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Collapsed like a house of cards.  NAM really liking the elevations in NW and Central MA.

A low level east and northeasterly flow develops. Like 20 knots at 950mb....that could give a little enhancement on the east slope ORH hills and east slopes of Berkshires. 

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

A low level east and northeasterly flow develops. Like 20 knots at 950mb....that could give a little enhancement on the east slope ORH hills and east slopes of Berkshires. 

Yeah--expecting a bit of a win with this.  Of course, that's not saying much in a winter when 'wins' have most often meant waiting a little longer for the taint.

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Just now, Kitzbuhel Craver said:

For the first time since the Nov event, i actually feel relatively good about this one. Could be a nice little critter pike south.

I don't even think it has to be limited to pike south. Most guidance (now euro included) look like a nice weenie fronto band gets into N MA and S NH even. 

A scooter said, this has the look for getting some of the goods further north...and the qpf queens north of pike may fret but not need to. 

But yeah, we may finally have something interesting to track that isn't going to change to sleet after a couple hours. Though south coast may need to watch for a bit of taint. 

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1 minute ago, NorEastermass128 said:

2.5” is my benchmark. Anything over is a big win. I’m just glad we stay all snow for the first and maybe only time this winter. Small wins. 

Pretty much the same here.   If I even get an inch while still having coverage from Weds I will consider it a win...

Normally a nothingburger for me.  S coast looks good. 

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I don't even think it has to be limited to pike south. Most guidance (now euro included) look like a nice weenie fronto band gets into N MA and S NH even. 

A scooter said, this has the look for getting some of the goods further north...and the qpf queens north of pike may fret but not need to. 

But yeah, we may finally have something interesting to track that isn't going to change to sleet after a couple hours. Though south coast may need to watch for a bit of taint. 

Savor it while we can.  We're back on the taint train 2.5 days later.

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5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I don't even think it has to be limited to pike south. Most guidance (now euro included) look like a nice weenie fronto band gets into N MA and S NH even. 

A scooter said, this has the look for getting some of the goods further north...and the qpf queens north of pike may fret but not need to. 

But yeah, we may finally have something interesting to track that isn't going to change to sleet after a couple hours. Though south coast may need to watch for a bit of taint. 

Absolutely, looks like the parting gifts will linger a bit further north as well. Just happy im not tracking a rain storm

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