weatherwiz Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 I may be wrong here, but there really isn't a ton of upper-level support going on...not much in the way of ulvl divergence. Seeing how the mlvl and ulvl jet are strengthening placing us on the nose of the jet the divergence isn't there. I wonder if the confluence (and strengthening confluence given the increasing jet to our SW) is yielding too much subsidence. I wonder if we'll ever see a consolidated precip field? Seems like it will be more spotty heavier echos and then crap outside of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 SREFS came down a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 How funny would it be of the modest event that's occupied the last 48 hours suddenly goes down the shitter like the rest of the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 Nice little bump north on the NAM with the mid level goodies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 1 minute ago, moneypitmike said: How funny would it be of the modest event that's occupied the last 48 hours suddenly goes down the shitter like the rest of the winter. This event probably will put BDL above average for the year lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 0z NAM backed down from 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 Just now, dendrite said: Nice little bump north on the NAM with the mid level goodies. Just now, ineedsnow said: 0z NAM backed down from 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 Just now, moneypitmike said: Just trying to get PF as much snow as I can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 2 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: It did for most.. 3 to 5. Looks like a good bet still.. someone that's lucky might get 6. Mixing issues on the Cape for Jimmy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 3 minutes ago, dendrite said: Just trying to get PF as much snow as I can. As god intended. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 3 minutes ago, dendrite said: Just trying to get PF as much snow as I can. 25:1 ratios at a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 4 minutes ago, dryslot said: 25:1 ratios at a time. Oddly lacking a lot of those this season. Been a shitty ratio type winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 Doesn't really look all that impressive unless your south of the pike. The hills will do well in berks and ORH, but meh for a lot. There will be what looks to be an oes enhanced zone on the south shore. It's an interesting setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeonPeon Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 3 hours ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Secondary low intensifying over WV now, down to 1005.5mb Calmbogenesis? Largobogenesis? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 It’s 3-5 for a lot. Just accept it. Maybe 2-4 for some and a lolli to 6, but this isn’t a hard call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 Any ground reports of snow across CT at all yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: Any ground reports of snow across CT at all yet? BDR had some flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 Just now, dendrite said: BDR had some flakes. Just started to lightly snow in WeHa. Very tiny tiny flakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Any ground reports of snow across CT at all yet? Yea, coated here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It’s 3-5 for a lot. Just accept it. Maybe 2-4 for some and a lolli to 6, but this isn’t a hard call. I think 2-4" for majority Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Yea, coated here. when did it start there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 16 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Oddly lacking a lot of those this season. Been a shitty ratio type winter. You looked to have a few though on some of the pics i had seen, Looked similar to when i'm riding at 3K Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 Just now, sbos_wx said: I think 2-4" for majority Same thing. It’s not like we are debating 15” vs 8” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: Same thing. It’s not like we are debating 15” vs 8” I would be happy as a pig in shit if it snows until 5 Tomorrow and I get 5/6 as modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: when did it start there? 9 or so, not sure. I wasn’t checking every minute like I usually do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 00z HRRRX looks fine, if not great. Not sure what the panic is about. That's a good look for BDL-ORH-BOS. Also looks like a light snow event for all of VT and NH now too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 I hope it's not bad when I have to drive to Branford at 5. Last Tuesday I stayed at a Motel 6 like a minute from work. I don't typically hit traffic when I leave, but once I get closer to New Haven on 91 traffic picks up a bit. Do alot of people get work off for the holiday tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 Just now, dryslot said: You looked to have a few though on some of the pics i had seen, Looked similar to when i'm riding at 3K Oh definitely... but man this season has had quite a few higher QPF, low ratio snows than we are used to. I guess that's what happens immediately north of the mix line on so many events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 Thought I'd put up a map... As I mentioned for days, my biggest red flag about going higher are that soundings still look terrible or spotty through the night, and even worse after 12z when models continue to accumulate another 2" or so in eastern SNE... Also, frankly, I can see the moon. Some time will be eaten up saturating the column. This has the feel (and current radar appearance) of a relatively ragged event. All making me lean conservative. Boston metro I'm expecting 3-5", most before 12z. Thereafter soundings look crappy and we may get intermittent snow but overall looks like poor snowgrowth. As I posted yesterday, we do have good saturation and cold enough temps for snowgrowth around 900-850 mb with easterly fetch, but I'm not sure lift will be sufficient with uncertain IVT mechanics. Where could I bust? (1) The 2-4" in sNH / nMA may be underestimating midlevel frontogenesis + better ratios, but I think dynamics are pretty weak and I'm not certain ratios will be significantly much better. 20:1 ratios will get it to about 3-4" using Euro/NAM qpf. (2) the arm of Cape Cod - Provincetown is currently in the 2-5" range, but might be clipped by 3-6" or even higher if the CCB dynamics are better and/or IVT overperforms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: 9 or so, not sure. I wasn’t checking every minute like I usually do. Sounds about right. I started to check like every 5 minutes and in between checks is when it started. Coming down a little heavier now...probably like Patriots Super Bowl confetti type intensity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.