Damage In Tolland Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Just now, weatherwiz said: I look at everything with the exception of the snow maps. Don't care for them. Soundings do show some nice omega into the snow growth zone so I'm sure it will come down quite nicely in spots. But we're relying on a very narrow band of heavier snow to produce more than 2-3''. I'm thinking we see more in the way of embedded heavier echos (so very brief over a particular location) and maybe a 3-4 hour window of heavier snows (maybe like 1/2'' per hour rates) Ryan the King Met of CT has 3-6 “ as an FYI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Just now, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Why is there a warm layer? It must be the primary tracking that far north into northern PA. Latest HIRES guidance backs off the rain mix. Well one of the models doing it is the NAM which is giving you some of the most snow. Gotta play with fire sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Ryan the King Met of CT has 3-6 “ as an FYI That is very reasonable. If that bad comes as advertised by some of the guidance that I see that happening. I just don't feel confident enough in that occurring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I look at everything with the exception of the snow maps. Don't care for them. Soundings do show some nice omega into the snow growth zone so I'm sure it will come down quite nicely in spots. But we're relying on a very narrow band of heavier snow to produce more than 2-3''. I'm thinking we see more in the way of embedded heavier echos (so very brief over a particular location) and maybe a 3-4 hour window of heavier snows (maybe like 1/2'' per hour rates) BOX. Thinking 1 to 2 inch an hour rates for a couple of hours.. guess time will tell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 1 minute ago, ineedsnow said: BOX. Thinking 1 to 2 inch an hour rates for a couple of hours.. guess time will tell 2"/hr may be a stretch, but 1" is definitely doable between 06-12z depending on where in SNE you are located. There is a pretty good crosshair signal briefly for most Bufkit locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Secondary low intensifying over WV now, down to 1005.5mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: 2"/hr may be a stretch, but 1" is definitely doable between 06-12z depending on where in SNE you are located. There is a pretty good crosshair signal briefly for most Bufkit locations. The NAM is impressive with that at BDL 15 units of omega at 6z in the SGZ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Just now, weatherwiz said: The NAM is impressive with that at BDL 15 units of omega at 6z in the SGZ. And that's around the time that Bufkit accumulates 1, 1.6, and 0.8" over a 3 hour stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: And that's around the time that Bufkit accumulates 1, 1.6, and 0.8" over a 3 hour stretch. I'm just not sure how much to buy into that. The HRRR nearly isn't as impressive and actually seems to indicate a bit more in the way of subsidence. Still have a pretty strongly confluent flow over the region too with a bit of dry air...I guess we saturate but there is a chance the northern fringe of the precip gets eaten away. I could see the heavier banding like southern CT or over Long Island if it were to happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Just now, weatherwiz said: I'm just not sure how much to buy into that. The HRRR nearly isn't as impressive and actually seems to indicate a bit more in the way of subsidence. Still have a pretty strongly confluent flow over the region too with a bit of dry air...I guess we saturate but there is a chance the northern fringe of the precip gets eaten away. I could see the heavier banding like southern CT or over Long Island if it were to happen That's an interesting battle tonight, the HRRR vs. the NAM. They both have a similar look at the current time but diverge pretty good by tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I'm just not sure how much to buy into that. The HRRR nearly isn't as impressive and actually seems to indicate a bit more in the way of subsidence. Still have a pretty strongly confluent flow over the region too with a bit of dry air...I guess we saturate but there is a chance the northern fringe of the precip gets eaten away. I could see the heavier banding like southern CT or over Long Island if it were to happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: That's an interesting battle tonight, the HRRR vs. the NAM. They both have a similar look at the current time but diverge pretty good by tomorrow morning. I think the NAM has the right idea about a band developing, however, I think it's handing of it is rather poor. The confluence and subsidence isn't really going to change much moving forward. I think this is something that ends up "suppressing" the precipitation and sort of eats away at the northern fringe of it. The NAM also seems a bit off with how far north it develops the best fronto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I guess we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 HRRR playing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: You do look at every piece of guidance right? There’s not one piece of guidance only showing c-2 or even 1-3” for CT Well, the IKON is, unless you don't consider them guidance. Granted, they usually are crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 I'm a bit surprised to see this range for my hood. Tonight A chance of snow this evening, then snow after midnight. Snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches. Lows around 20. Northeast winds around 5 mph. Chance of snow near 100 percent. Washingtons Birthday Snow with a chance of freezing drizzle in the morning, then snow likely in the afternoon. Total snow accumulation of 4 to 6 inches. Highs in the upper 20s. Northeast winds around 5 mph, becoming north in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 I like a general 3-5 for CT south of BDL to Tolland to N RI to Scooter w spot 6 in SE mass (also E slope Berks) 1-3” North of rte 2 to n of LWM 2-4 in between Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 3 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: I'm a bit surprised to see this range for my hood. Tonight A chance of snow this evening, then snow after midnight. Snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches. Lows around 20. Northeast winds around 5 mph. Chance of snow near 100 percent. Washingtons Birthday Snow with a chance of freezing drizzle in the morning, then snow likely in the afternoon. Total snow accumulation of 4 to 6 inches. Highs in the upper 20s. Northeast winds around 5 mph, becoming north in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent. Nearly identical to the snowfall forecast in Enfield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 What I think may happen is that northern Mass (rt 2 area) will likely fare better than most tomorrow while the southern areas get the better goods tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 25 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: I like a general 3-5 for CT south of BDL to Tolland to N RI to Scooter w spot 6 in SE mass (also E slope Berks) 1-3” North of rte 2 to n of LWM 2-4 in between The important takeaway is....melt and you shall receive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 26 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: I like a general 3-5 for CT south of BDL to Tolland to N RI to Scooter w spot 6 in SE mass (also E slope Berks) 1-3” North of rte 2 to n of LWM 2-4 in between Good call imo....I had a general 2-5", but I won't be surprised if most spots at my latitude are more like 2-3".....I have the 4-5" range to account for some mid level banding, which may not be overly extensive given the mid levels opening upon approach, but should still be a factor imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 Final forecast before the snow begins for verif. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 Very surprising there’s few maps on here with 6” with slightly higher amounts. There’s a lot of support for quite a few 5-7” amounts south of 90. There’s a bunch of higher maps elesewhere on tv and BOX , just not here . Will be interesting to see who wins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 7 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: Final forecast before the snow begins for verif. Totally agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Very surprising there’s few maps on here with 6” with slightly higher amounts. There’s a lot of support for quite a few 5-7” amounts south of 90. There’s a bunch of higher maps elesewhere on tv and BOX , just not here . Will be interesting to see who wins I think some of it is skepticism based on the fact that this isn't a slam dunk, and anything that has been in question has gone to $hit this season. I can see how many of us can bust low, and would love for it to happen....hopefully the attenuation of that wave slows....but usually ceilings are reached and eclipsed when a system is amplifying upon approach, not decaying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 3 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: This is it? Is this as good as it gets? decades of life wended it's way to this f'ing moment of debating the cataclysmic significance of high end advisory or low end warning interpretation with Connecticut hill people The worst kind of people Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 2 hours ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Secondary low intensifying over WV now, down to 1005.5mb I have 1005.3 mb on my meso analysis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 20 minutes ago, sbos_wx said: I have 1005.3 mb on my meso analysis This is gonna really crank when it hits the Gulf Stream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 Latest HRRR looks like sh#t for most of CT. Pos winter continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Connecticut Appleman Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 Hopefully the radar starts to fill in - what's currently heading east over PA looks pretty spotty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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