JC-CT Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 52 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Storm Center is near southern IN, at around 1008mb, storm is strengthening What is it now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Just now, JC-CT said: What is it now Still 1008mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Just now, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Still 1008mb And now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Lowest surface pressure is 1007.0mb over West Virginia. That is probably the new location of the parent/primary low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Final call...we bump jimmy a bit. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2019/02/early-presidents-day-snowfall-final-call.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Should have bumped all zones one notch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Nammy Rampy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 I think we should start an observations thread, the precipitation is breaking out across western PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Just now, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: I think we should start an observations thread, the precipitation is breaking out across western PA. We still have model guidance to come before it starts. Ok my obs-clouds in the SW sky. 33F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Just now, weathafella said: We still have model guidance to come before it starts. Ok my obs-clouds in the SW sky. 33F Mostly sunny skies, cloudy to the southwest, temperature of 31F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 WHAT THE HECK?? I just took took a break from the Daytona 500 and noticed I’m in a Winter Storm Warning?? It’s like my Own personal Central SNE WSW!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 5 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: I think we should start an observations thread, the precipitation is breaking out across western PA. Do it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 3-5 should do it here I think. Maybe get lucky with the stuff floating in during aftn but have more confidence in 3-5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 hi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 RPM anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 5 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: hi Tblizz meh’ing himself to a jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: 3-5 should do it here I think. Maybe get lucky with the stuff floating in during aftn but have more confidence in 3-5. I think that BOX map looks really good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: RPM anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 After being meh it’s widespread 2-4” mothufukkas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 GFS looked a little wetter for most of SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 17 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Mostly sunny skies, cloudy to the southwest, temperature of 31F Temperatures are coldest today near the water. BOS is 32 with a 070 wind vector. Ocean is as cold as it gets. Won’t hurt tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Why all the terrible swearing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Just now, weathafella said: Temperatures are coldest today near the water. BOS is 32 with a 070 wind vector. Ocean is as cold as it gets. Won’t hurt tomorrow. I dropped 5 degrees earlier when wind turned NE. Evapo cooling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Just now, weathafella said: Temperatures are coldest today near the water. BOS is 32 with a 070 wind vector. Ocean is as cold as it gets. Won’t hurt tomorrow. That is why I don't think we mix, that would be the only reason people are predicting mixing on the Cape. Storm doesn't track closer than the benchmark. Also the HRRR is stronger with the return of moisture into SNE. The latest run which is 21z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 For such a small storm this is sure a bit of a complex forecast. The indications of a narrow band or perhaps moderate...maybe heavy snow is quite interesting. Part of me is wondering if some of the latest trends towards a more potent band are a bit overdone...the 18z NAM develops a pretty intense looking area of fronto right over N CT, but the question is why? The degree of WAA doesn't seem that particularly intense and temperature gradients across a horizontal distance and vertically (I don't think) are anything big to right home about. Bufkit soundings do show sufficient ice crystals, but RH is a little questionable. I went C-2'' yesterday for CT...I guess may bump to 1-3'' (I could see some getting 4'' I suppose), but sort of a fine line to rely on what may be a narrow band/zone of snow to yield widespread amounts of 4''. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: For such a small storm this is sure a bit of a complex forecast. The indications of a narrow band or perhaps moderate...maybe heavy snow is quite interesting. Part of me is wondering if some of the latest trends towards a more potent band are a bit overdone...the 18z NAM develops a pretty intense looking area of fronto right over N CT, but the question is why? The degree of WAA doesn't seem that particularly intense and temperature gradients across a horizontal distance and vertically (I don't think) are anything big to right home about. Bufkit soundings do show sufficient ice crystals, but RH is a little questionable. I went C-2'' yesterday for CT...I guess may bump to 1-3'' (I could see some getting 4'' I suppose), but sort of a fine line to rely on what may be a narrow band/zone of snow to yield widespread amounts of 4''. You do look at every piece of guidance right? There’s not one piece of guidance only showing c-2 or even 1-3” for CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: That is why I don't think we mix, that would be the only reason people are predicting mixing on the Cape. Storm doesn't track closer than the benchmark. Also the HRRR is stronger with the return of moisture into SNE. The latest run which is 21z I mean the models that mix you mix you because of a warm layer between 900 and 800 mb, not boundary layer temps. So I don't think the water was ever a factor really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: You do look at every piece of guidance right? I look at everything with the exception of the snow maps. Don't care for them. Soundings do show some nice omega into the snow growth zone so I'm sure it will come down quite nicely in spots. But we're relying on a very narrow band of heavier snow to produce more than 2-3''. I'm thinking we see more in the way of embedded heavier echos (so very brief over a particular location) and maybe a 3-4 hour window of heavier snows (maybe like 1/2'' per hour rates) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Just now, OceanStWx said: I mean the models that mix you mix you because of a warm layer between 900 and 800 mb, not boundary layer temps. So I don't think the water was ever a factor really. Why is there a warm layer? It must be the primary tracking that far north into northern PA. Latest HIRES guidance backs off the rain mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 I feel the same way as I did in the 80s. Excited for hopefully all snow 3-5”. Wow. We have cole full circle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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