Hoth Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 11 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: According to the Euro, just south of 84 will see a bit of a mix at some point, but had more moisture this run. Snowfall wise, there was a strip of 4-6 inches from Danbury up to Waterbury on eastward..looked much better than 6z... You're probably fine. Inland enough and with a bit of elevation. I was referring more to my area four miles off the water. Was just hoping to get one all-snow event this winter, but doesn't seem to be in the cards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Tomorrow is one of those events where it snows all day long, yet when you shovel after work there's like 2" of fluff. Except for SE MA where there might be 4" of fluff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 18z hrrr has accumulating snow over by 7am for wct. Just a general 1-3” across the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitzbuhel Craver Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: 18z hrrr has accumulating snow over by 7am for wct. Just a general 1-3” across the state. Ouch. That’s a sobering account right there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: 18z hrrr has accumulating snow over by 7am for wct. Just a general 1-3” across the state. Sounds like what the HRRR did during the January 13-14th event in DC. It showed the NORLUN as just a couple of flurries and was off by 4-6" Not saying it's that bad here, but I'd use other models for this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 12 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: 18z hrrr has accumulating snow over by 7am for wct. Just a general 1-3” across the state. It has been showing that for a few runs now, hopefully just the hrrr being what it is outside of 6 hrs. That being said, this winter has found every way not to snow around here, so maybe it's right. At least we dont have to fight the mid-feb sun angle...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 2 hours ago, wxsniss said: I don't have experience using HREFs.... do you have thoughts on their performance relative to other short-term guidance for winter weather, and what timeframe they become useful? TIA All I could find online: "HREF version 2.0 will be implemented in November 2017 and makes it more like the SSEO. It adds a new member from a second HiresW WRF-ARW run configured similarly to the National Severe Storms Laboratory ARW run. The 24-hour time lag used in HREF 1.0 is reduced to the two most recent runs for each system." It really IS other short term guidance. It poor man's ensemble that includes the hi-res NAM, ARW, NMM, and NSSL WRF. So it gives a good idea of what the hi-res models are doing, but also comes with QPF caveats that hi-res models come with (e.g. too much terrain influence at times). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 19 minutes ago, Hoth said: You're probably fine. Inland enough and with a bit of elevation. I was referring more to my area four miles off the water. Was just hoping to get one all-snow event this winter, but doesn't seem to be in the cards. Hopefully that bit of warm air aloft dissipates as we get closer and non of us have to worry about it. I'm a few miles south of 84, so it's kind of a toss up... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Nam is pretty juiced again. Better tomorrow aftn too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Haven't been paying much attention to this one. Hopefully it amounts to more than 3" of slop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Nam is pretty juiced again. Better tomorrow aftn too. It looked a hair colder too where it has been marginal... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 NGW pike south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 1 minute ago, Morch Madness said: NGW pike south NGW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 29 minutes ago, Amped said: Sounds like what the HRRR did during the January 13-14th event in DC. It showed the NORLUN as just a couple of flurries and was off by 4-6" Not saying it's that bad here, but I'd use other models for this event. Yea, I’d favor everything else for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Nam is pretty juiced again. Better tomorrow aftn too. Surprising ... I figured it was collapsing into the consensus ..right around .4 or so, off those .6ers it it was selling yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnno Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Wow nammy CT Love Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 1 minute ago, moneypitmike said: NGW? NAM gone wild Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: NGW? Nam Gone Wild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 NAM is not only juicier for the region overall but colder too, less mixing on the Cape, but the Islands, unfortunately, see mixing still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 The HRRR and NAM 3km simulated reflecitivity are both a good match for the current radar. But the HRRR has the best accumulation well to the north of the hi-res NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeonPeon Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 The 3k NAM has been one of the more consistent pieces, less generous to near the pike and north. It also continues the theme of this being a 3-5 inch deal in the goods, with the odd lolly. The overall output of the NAM just looks odd though. I can buy it flipping near the coast, unfortunately, but I don't buy such a nice even producer, off such an ugly, weak piece of energy. It's just nice to have something to track. It'd be nicer if there was a higher ceiling on this event, but beggars can't be choosers, and whether it's 2-3 inches with some slop down here, or 4 or 5 inches, I've finally got a realistic opportunity to show the kid what snow actually is, and watch him flip out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Blizz to Ginx to Bob to Diane could get warning snows on la NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Just now, HoarfrostHubb said: Blizz to Ginx to Bob to Diane could get warning snows on la NAM Ryan doing naked snow angels outside the studio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 NWS upped the snowfall forecast to 3-6" here in Enfield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Blizz to Ginx to Bob to Diane could get warning snows on la NAM I guess im at the point this winter where I'll believe it when i see it. Not a cloud in the sky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Just now, #NoPoles said: I guess im at the point this winter where I'll believe it when i see it. Not a cloud in the sky. Look south and west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 I have to say those Kuchera maps, or any snow maps for that matter, are just not great. Clear stripe of warning snowfall through SNE. Actually breaking down lift, RH, and temps in Bufkit and the same NAM would struggle to 4". There is good lift over BDL between 03-07z, but definite drying concerns after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Nice move north with the WAA thump even on 3K. We take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 My area is going to really need mid level banding, so I wish that the mid level lows did not open up...I'd be more confident in that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 19 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: I have to say those Kuchera maps, or any snow maps for that matter, are just not great. Clear stripe of warning snowfall through SNE. Actually breaking down lift, RH, and temps in Bufkit and the same NAM would struggle to 4". There is good lift over BDL between 03-07z, but definite drying concerns after that. ...you've bothered to analyze, and props for that effort ... You've come to what we've all suspected - or at least I ... Those products usually I cut in half as a perfunctory first requirement per their usage.. I come to find that even in the best circumstances, verification will never tally 100 % of those fantasies. ...About 80 tops, but that's for upper tier events with huge environmental controlling parameters in play. In situ like this is an autopilot 1/2 er. What's liable to happen now just because we're having this discussion is... some unforeseen mechanics will stripe a foot across the region ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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