CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Pretty nice overnight runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 3-6” for Pike south of and there’ll be a stripe of 7-8” amounts 2-4 north of Pike 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Enjoy whatever inches we get from this--Wed. night begins our return to taint.....more toward rain than to anything wintry in the next few. Meanwhile, fwiw: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 As stated earlier this morning, the NWS Taunton office issued Winter Storm Watches for the SE MA, RI and Cape Cod. This area is expected to see more than 5" of snow with my forecast for amounts between 5-9" of snow, consensus currently is between 4-8" for Cape Cod. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Latest lightning detection shows lightning over the TN Valley in association with the southern stream moisture plume developing on the southeast flank of the upper-level shortwave over the Midwest. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Still a lot of model differences. Mesos seem rather bullish including euro. RGEM certainly is not, and GFS is advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Still a lot of model differences. Mesos seem rather bullish including euro. RGEM certainly is not, and GFS is advisory. You meant Reggie is bullish pike south. I just looked at the 6z run. It also lingers snow in same area thru early afternoon tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 How does BOX not have advisory for the rest of MA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: You meant Reggie is bullish pike south. I just looked at the 6z run. It also lingers snow in same area thru early afternoon tomorrow Reggie is bullish for BID. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Reggie is bullish for BID. It’s got 3-6” pike south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: It’s got 3-6” pike south Meh. Either way, some large differences still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: It’s got 3-6” pike south I bet we end up with a couple hours of sleet down here. The low is getting close enough to the area now. It has definitely increased the precip though. That would make every snowfall, except for the squall a mixed event this season.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Just now, Spanks45 said: I bet we end up with a couple hours of sleet down here. The low is getting close enough to the area now. It has definitely increased the precip though. That would make every snowfall, except for the squall a mixed event this season.... I don't think the mix line moves any closer than 20 miles south of the Cape Cod area, and that includes the south coasts of MA, RI, and CT. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: I bet we end up with a couple hours of sleet down here. The low is getting close enough to the area now. It has definitely increased the precip though. That would make every snowfall, except for the squall a mixed event this season.... In DXR? I’m not sure about that. Maybe if it really amps up, but trends overnight didn’t do that at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 That BOX map seems reasonable. Enjoy it SE SNE peeps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 15 hours ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Like I said, "suggest". 1-3" is what I see for the Cape. Not 6"+. I don't think anyone is seeing that. 4-5" looks to be it for a couple weenie spots. (Interior SE MA perhaps) I see a general 2-4" for SNE up into CNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 SPC HREF is sort of bullish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: You are not taking into account the model consensus or trends this morning for a better organized and stronger trough entering the region from the Great Lakes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: You are not taking into account the model consensus or trends this morning for a better organized and stronger trough entering the region from the Great Lakes. Actually I am. I see the Cape transitioning to sleet/rain with the closer surface track. Just off the Cape about 20 miles should do well, around the Brockton, Easton, Sharon, Foxboro area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: Actually I am. I see the Cape transitioning to sleet/rain with the closer surface track. Just off the Cape about 20 miles should do well, around the Brockton, Easton, Sharon, Foxboro area. dynamics and heavier precip rates will offset any low-level warmth from a closer tracking storm center. Remember the storm is bringing cold air into it as it intensifies, it is still south of the ACK area and around the benchmark which is still favorable for snow on Cape Cod. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianW Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 17, 2019 Author Share Posted February 17, 2019 1 minute ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: dynamics and heavier precip rates will offset any low-level warmth from a closer tracking storm center. Remember the storm is bringing cold air into it as it intensifies, it is still south of the ACK area and around the benchmark which is still favorable for snow on Cape Cod. You prob have about a 50/50 shot at flipping to rain. Euro flips MVY/ACK...really close for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Just now, ORH_wxman said: You prob have about a 50/50 shot at flipping to rain. Euro flips MVY/ACK...really close for you. Yeah not as close as you might think, 25 miles is huge in storms like this, it could mean the difference of mixing and getting over 8" of snow. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 45 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: In DXR? I’m not sure about that. Maybe if it really amps up, but trends overnight didn’t do that at all I hope not, but I see more reasons why we do than why we don't...2-4" is a good call, the 6z EURO backed off the snow from 0z, so wait to see what 12z brings..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 11 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Yeah not as close as you might think, 25 miles is huge in storms like this, it could mean the difference of mixing and getting over 8" of snow. I'd say it's closer than you think. Not trying to b a dink, but you need to be realistic. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 17 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Actually I am. I see the Cape transitioning to sleet/rain with the closer surface track. Just off the Cape about 20 miles should do well, around the Brockton, Easton, Sharon, Foxboro area. I dont see it getting close to there. Maybe EWB to Canal at most. The Islands is a sure bet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitzbuhel Craver Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 What kind of ratios are we talking about? Doesn’t seem overly cold, 10:1, 9:1? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: I'd say it's closer than you think. Not trying to b a dink, but you need to be realistic. The cape is def in the game for a mix. I told him last night to keep that in mind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 3 hours ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: EURO is 6-7" for SEMA and Cape Cod. 3k Nam also Looking good in SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Just now, SouthCoastMA said: The cape is def in the game for a mix. I told him last night to keep that in mind RGEM would be snow for him. Hi res RGEM is like flurries outside the Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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