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Feb 18 overrunning threat


ORH_wxman

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8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s got 3-6” pike south 

I bet we end up with a couple hours of sleet down here. The low is getting close enough to the area now. It has definitely increased the precip though. That would make every snowfall, except for the squall a mixed event this season....

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Just now, Spanks45 said:

I bet we end up with a couple hours of sleet down here. The low is getting close enough to the area now. It has definitely increased the precip though. That would make every snowfall, except for the squall a mixed event this season....

I don't think the mix line moves any closer than 20 miles south of the Cape Cod area, and that includes the south coasts of MA, RI, and CT.

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3 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

I bet we end up with a couple hours of sleet down here. The low is getting close enough to the area now. It has definitely increased the precip though. That would make every snowfall, except for the squall a mixed event this season....

In DXR? I’m not sure about that. Maybe if it really amps up, but trends overnight didn’t do that at all

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2 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

You are not taking into account the model consensus or trends this morning for a better organized and stronger trough entering the region from the Great Lakes.

Actually I am.  I see the Cape transitioning to sleet/rain with the closer surface track.  Just off the Cape about 20 miles should do well, around the Brockton, Easton, Sharon, Foxboro area.

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Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

Actually I am.  I see the Cape transitioning to sleet/rain with the closer surface track.  Just off the Cape about 20 miles should do well, around the Brockton, Easton, Sharon, Foxboro area.

dynamics and heavier precip rates will offset any low-level warmth from a closer tracking storm center.  Remember the storm is bringing cold air into it as it intensifies, it is still south of the ACK area and around the benchmark which is still favorable for snow on Cape Cod.

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1 minute ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

dynamics and heavier precip rates will offset any low-level warmth from a closer tracking storm center.  Remember the storm is bringing cold air into it as it intensifies, it is still south of the ACK area and around the benchmark which is still favorable for snow on Cape Cod.

You prob have about a 50/50 shot at flipping to rain. Euro flips MVY/ACK...really close for you. 

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45 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

In DXR? I’m not sure about that. Maybe if it really amps up, but trends overnight didn’t do that at all

I hope not, but I see more reasons why we do than why we don't...2-4" is a good call, the 6z EURO backed off the snow from 0z, so wait to see what 12z brings.....

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17 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Actually I am.  I see the Cape transitioning to sleet/rain with the closer surface track.  Just off the Cape about 20 miles should do well, around the Brockton, Easton, Sharon, Foxboro area.

I dont see it getting close to there. Maybe EWB to Canal at most. The Islands is a sure bet

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