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Feb 18 overrunning threat


ORH_wxman

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17 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Don’t forget to log off a third of NAM qpf amounts...although I’m not sure if that old rule of thumb still holds true

Looks like a nice little event.  I hope Scooter, Diane, and James do well

I’m doing ok relatively speaking. James and Diane are defintely in a rut.

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22 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The low levels get pretty cold later in the game..like -8 to -10 near 850-900mb. The low level IVT stuff could do okay over E MA with salt nuclei on that profile. There's a window of a few hours though in between the initial surge and the later IVT stuff where the midlevels dryslot and it's not yet that cold in the lower levels. Could be even some FZDZ briefly during that or really ugly flakes. 

Here's ORH at 21z. I kind of like the light NE to E flow in the 900-950 layer. 

KBOS 15z-21z looks even better, temps down to -12 or so in 900-850, saturated, with good easterly fetch off ocean in the 900-850 level, and hopefully (I guess depending on where IVT convergence sets up?) we get some lift. Not the surest mechanics for snowfall but this isn't the season to be picky. The bulk of our accumulation would come before dawn.

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5 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

KBOS 15z-21z looks even better, temps down to -12 or so in 900-850, saturated, with good easterly fetch off ocean in the 900-850 level, and hopefully (I guess depending on where IVT convergence sets up?) we get some lift. Not the surest mechanics for snowfall but this isn't the season to be picky. The bulk of our accumulation would come before dawn.

Yeah the lift will be key. There is weak lift in that 900mb region during the afternoon. 

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Yeah pretty good consensus for widespread 3-6 much of SNE... chances for higher will depend on amplifying this a tick more and quality of lingering activity after 12z Mon

 

Can’t believe this may be our biggest snowfall of the season Jerry. I’m trying to be more selective about what I spend time analyzing / posting time, but we’ve had slim pickings this year.

 

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