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Feb 18 overrunning threat


ORH_wxman

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Still have my caution flags about DGZ RH for most of the day Monday over SNE, but there is definitely like a 4-5 hour window there Sunday night where SNE can do some work. HRRRX is showing around near 1"/hr rates for areas between 03 and 09z. Could definitely see someone pull 4-5" before the radar shreds.

Eastern areas probably have a better chance to see things linger. And I would not be shocked at all if someone like Mitch pulled out a decent event. The forcing just deforms right over that area. 

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11 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Still have my caution flags about DGZ RH for most of the day Monday over SNE, but there is definitely like a 4-5 hour window there Sunday night where SNE can do some work. HRRRX is showing around near 1"/hr rates for areas between 03 and 09z. Could definitely see someone pull 4-5" before the radar shreds.

Eastern areas probably have a better chance to see things linger. And I would not be shocked at all if someone like Mitch pulled out a decent event. The forcing just deforms right over that area. 

The low levels get pretty cold later in the game..like -8 to -10 near 850-900mb. The low level IVT stuff could do okay over E MA with salt nuclei on that profile. There's a window of a few hours though in between the initial surge and the later IVT stuff where the midlevels dryslot and it's not yet that cold in the lower levels. Could be even some FZDZ briefly during that or really ugly flakes. 

Here's ORH at 21z. I kind of like the light NE to E flow in the 900-950 layer. 

 

IMG_2488.GIF

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

The low levels get pretty cold later in the game..like -8 to -10 near 850-900mb. The low level IVT stuff could do okay over E MA with salt nuclei on that profile. There's a window of a few hours though in between the initial surge and the later IVT stuff where the midlevels dryslot and it's not yet that cold in the lower levels. Could be even some FZDZ briefly during that or really ugly flakes. 

Here's ORH at 21z. I kind of like the light NE to E flow in the 900-950 layer. 

E MA could definitely benefit. The HRRR is showing a pretty uniform simulated reflectivity, which supports the DGZ staying saturated. 

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12 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Still have my caution flags about DGZ RH for most of the day Monday over SNE, but there is definitely like a 4-5 hour window there Sunday night where SNE can do some work. HRRRX is showing around near 1"/hr rates for areas between 03 and 09z. Could definitely see someone pull 4-5" before the radar shreds.

Eastern areas probably have a better chance to see things linger. And I would not be shocked at all if someone like Mitch pulled out a decent event. The forcing just deforms right over that area. 

Agree, posted the same. Looks like things get more showery and snowgrowth worsens after about 12z Mon.

Some of the accumulation depicted thereafter comes from more showery activity with poor snowgrowth unless lower level lift can produce something, so the 6+" spots in the 4-8" range will be rare I think. As currently depicted...

 

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3 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

You mean it could become a mix?  Or heavier snowfall?

Mix, obviously.  As on the nam.  Which would have me with 2 with a low warning level event in every direction, and the cape in the slop too.

Not exactly an unfamiliar position.  I tend to think there's a limit on this thing though, and it's one or those mediocre events we do ok in.  In tbe circumstances this winter, that feels like a win to me.

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Just now, NeonPeon said:

Mix, obviously.  As on the nam.  Which would have me with 2 with a low warning level event in every direction, and the cape in the slop too.

Not exactly an unfamiliar position.  I tend to think there's a limit on this thing though, and it's one or those mediocre events we do ok in.  In tbe circumstances this winter, that feels like a win to me.

This is becoming less mediocre and a more impactful event for us.

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Just now, HoarfrostHubb said:

Don’t forget to log off a third of NAM qpf amounts...although I’m not sure if that old rule of thumb still holds true

Looks like a nice little event.  I hope Scooter, Diane, and James do well

It only holds true if it is the only model showing the amounts it would, however, the consensus guidance shows the same amounts, so you can discredit the NAM QPF amounts like everyone wants too.

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4 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

It only holds true if it is the only model showing the amounts it would, however, the consensus guidance shows the same amounts, so you can discredit the NAM QPF amounts like everyone wants too.

Flag on the play. NAM is the highest QPF amount for CHH, and especially so for interior SNE.

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