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Feb 18 overrunning threat


ORH_wxman

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12 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Still chances for a stronger moisture output too, if this storm wasn't expected to be dynamic at all, then why are models over .50" of QPF for the coastline and south coast of CT, RI, and SE MA.

QPF is pretty often biased high in areas where the DGZ is unsaturated. In drizzle you're lucky to tick off a couple hundredths, but model QPF will be more like 0.10-0.15". I wouldn't bank on the full QPF amounts.

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9 minutes ago, dendrite said:

James asks what everyone thinks and then gets pissed when he gets answers he doesn't like.

His passion for it all is perhaps inspirational ... if not adorable ... but for the life of me, I cannot detect any way to clamp down the utterly unstoppable spin-up to fervency that originates from that I.P. address at the mere sight of a single blue toned QPF pixel ...  carried away into an imaginative surrealism of cryo dystopic horror

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3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

His passion for it all is perhaps inspirational ... if not adorable ... but for the life of me, I cannot detect any way to clamp down the utterly unstoppable spin-up to fervency that originates from that I.P. address at the mere sight of a single blue toned QPF pixel ...  carried away into an imaginative surrealism of cryo dystopic horror

Perfect 

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2 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

It's funny to see the conversation about a jackpot on this (yes, I've been part of it).  It's a small system.  Someone might say I got 3X what you got--and the difference is 3" vs. 1".  Or perhaps we'll see 2 vs. 4.  In this winter it seems like a lot, but it ain't.

If you ever read the threads from the NC crowd you’d understand why.  We’ve morphed in s sense based on our 2019 winter...

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My gut is the entire thing ends up north of current consensus. The upper level shortwave/vorticity is pretty far northwest. If it ends up too "straight" and loses its cyclonic curvature, then maybe I could see everything squashed into a weenie band on the south coast or near it...but my gut says north because the shortwave is strong before it enters the confluence and typically I feel like models try and decay them too quickly. 

W'ell see. But I feel like someone between the pike and S NH/S VT will get the surprise weenie band with ratios. 

Someone like scooter is going to get currier and ives for hours I think after the main synoptic stuff moves out. The 850-900 layer gets pretty cold so o wouldn't be surprised at good ratios during this time too. There could also be another low level qpf max down in CT/RI. 

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45 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Yeah there’s also confluence.  I’m not sure this is coming north which is why I’m most excited for coastal CT down to NYC as I’ve probably been all winter.  That said I would be surprised if anyone sees over 4-5 inches there 

NYC will be mostly rain, snows will be well north. 

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6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

My gut is the entire thing ends up north of current consensus. The upper level shortwave/vorticity is pretty far northwest. If it ends up too "straight" and loses its cyclonic curvature, then maybe I could see everything squashed into a weenie band on the south coast or near it...but my gut says north because the shortwave is strong before it enters the confluence and typically I feel like models try and decay them too quickly. 

W'ell see. But I feel like someone between the pike and S NH/S VT will get the surprise weenie band with ratios. 

Someone like scooter is going to get currier and ives for hours I think after the main synoptic stuff moves out. The 850-900 layer gets pretty cold so o wouldn't be surprised at good ratios during this time too. There could also be another low level qpf max down in CT/RI. 

I am definitely hoping.  I can definitely see some this being one of those storms that produces localized pockets of larger than consensus snow totals while others get a coating.  

The comment about snow totals is what is confusing me a little with the current NWS forecast.  I am thinking they are likely using the standard 10:1 ratio in their forecast to just give a general idea of the spatial representative-ness of the snow totals, but like you said, I can definitely see these being adjusted higher with new model consensus.  Although if this year taught me anything, is not to get too excited.

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16 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

My gut is the entire thing ends up north of current consensus. The upper level shortwave/vorticity is pretty far northwest. If it ends up too "straight" and loses its cyclonic curvature, then maybe I could see everything squashed into a weenie band on the south coast or near it...but my gut says north because the shortwave is strong before it enters the confluence and typically I feel like models try and decay them too quickly. 

W'ell see. But I feel like someone between the pike and S NH/S VT will get the surprise weenie band with ratios. 

Someone like scooter is going to get currier and ives for hours I think after the main synoptic stuff moves out. The 850-900 layer gets pretty cold so o wouldn't be surprised at good ratios during this time too. There could also be another low level qpf max down in CT/RI. 

That’s pretty much how I feel. WAA thump at first may have decent ratios and could be south. Another band from lift in DGZ in the area you mentioned. Then the erly ocean enhancement in ern MA extending to ORH hills. Also see weak CF enhancement possible near BOS area. But the WAA could end up north with good 850 SW flow moving over cold dome.

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On air tv meteorologists are quite conservative with this storm, even though they would be better off if they forecasted what the guidance suggests, 4-8" from Hartford, CT to Boston, Ma points southward to the South Coasts of CT, RI, and MA.  I think SE MA and Cape Cod will see the most, in a band of OE snows, and a band that comes from the development of the secondary cyclogenesis of the low-pressure center which deepens from 1008mb while near NJ coast to around 995mb southeast of ACK.

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13 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

On air tv meteorologists are quite conservative with this storm, even though they would be better off if they forecasted what the guidance suggests, 4-8" from Hartford, CT to Boston, Ma points southward to the South Coasts of CT, RI, and MA.  I think SE MA and Cape Cod will see the most, in a band of OE snows, and a band that comes from the development of the secondary cyclogenesis of the low-pressure center which deepens from 1008mb while near NJ coast to around 995mb southeast of ACK.

Would you expect anything less? I would be going conservative also given this winter, unlike you who would be saying 6-8" across all of Cape Cod.

I think BOX's map is spot on FWIW

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