OceanStWx Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 12 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Still chances for a stronger moisture output too, if this storm wasn't expected to be dynamic at all, then why are models over .50" of QPF for the coastline and south coast of CT, RI, and SE MA. QPF is pretty often biased high in areas where the DGZ is unsaturated. In drizzle you're lucky to tick off a couple hundredths, but model QPF will be more like 0.10-0.15". I wouldn't bank on the full QPF amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 9 minutes ago, dendrite said: James asks what everyone thinks and then gets pissed when he gets answers he doesn't like. His passion for it all is perhaps inspirational ... if not adorable ... but for the life of me, I cannot detect any way to clamp down the utterly unstoppable spin-up to fervency that originates from that I.P. address at the mere sight of a single blue toned QPF pixel ... carried away into an imaginative surrealism of cryo dystopic horror Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: His passion for it all is perhaps inspirational ... if not adorable ... but for the life of me, I cannot detect any way to clamp down the utterly unstoppable spin-up to fervency that originates from that I.P. address at the mere sight of a single blue toned QPF pixel ... carried away into an imaginative surrealism of cryo dystopic horror Perfect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Longest pack of the winter started last week. 2-2.5” of concrete Otg. Minus 1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 It's funny to see the conversation about a jackpot on this (yes, I've been part of it). It's a small system. Someone might say I got 3X what you got--and the difference is 3" vs. 1". Or perhaps we'll see 2 vs. 4. In this winter it seems like a lot, but it ain't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 2 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: It's funny to see the conversation about a jackpot on this (yes, I've been part of it). It's a small system. Someone might say I got 3X what you got--and the difference is 3" vs. 1". Or perhaps we'll see 2 vs. 4. In this winter it seems like a lot, but it ain't. If you ever read the threads from the NC crowd you’d understand why. We’ve morphed in s sense based on our 2019 winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 Didn’t seem like much change on the gfs. An inch here or there is noise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Didn’t seem like much change on the gfs. An inch less here or there is noise. An inch more is worth a few Pages or weenie high fives . We less Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 18z GFS focuses heaviest QPF over Cape and Islands, mix occurs over ACK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxextreme Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 Joining late to this conversation, trying to get myself excited over this storm, but cant pull myself to be excited. Looking like two inches for me, enough to coat the iced concrete snow outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 16, 2019 Author Share Posted February 16, 2019 My gut is the entire thing ends up north of current consensus. The upper level shortwave/vorticity is pretty far northwest. If it ends up too "straight" and loses its cyclonic curvature, then maybe I could see everything squashed into a weenie band on the south coast or near it...but my gut says north because the shortwave is strong before it enters the confluence and typically I feel like models try and decay them too quickly. W'ell see. But I feel like someone between the pike and S NH/S VT will get the surprise weenie band with ratios. Someone like scooter is going to get currier and ives for hours I think after the main synoptic stuff moves out. The 850-900 layer gets pretty cold so o wouldn't be surprised at good ratios during this time too. There could also be another low level qpf max down in CT/RI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 2-4” regionwide, relax. Just chipping away at the deficit with a toothpick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 45 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Yeah there’s also confluence. I’m not sure this is coming north which is why I’m most excited for coastal CT down to NYC as I’ve probably been all winter. That said I would be surprised if anyone sees over 4-5 inches there NYC will be mostly rain, snows will be well north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 The 18z rgem was run by a Canadian version of Snow88. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxextreme Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: My gut is the entire thing ends up north of current consensus. The upper level shortwave/vorticity is pretty far northwest. If it ends up too "straight" and loses its cyclonic curvature, then maybe I could see everything squashed into a weenie band on the south coast or near it...but my gut says north because the shortwave is strong before it enters the confluence and typically I feel like models try and decay them too quickly. W'ell see. But I feel like someone between the pike and S NH/S VT will get the surprise weenie band with ratios. Someone like scooter is going to get currier and ives for hours I think after the main synoptic stuff moves out. The 850-900 layer gets pretty cold so o wouldn't be surprised at good ratios during this time too. There could also be another low level qpf max down in CT/RI. I am definitely hoping. I can definitely see some this being one of those storms that produces localized pockets of larger than consensus snow totals while others get a coating. The comment about snow totals is what is confusing me a little with the current NWS forecast. I am thinking they are likely using the standard 10:1 ratio in their forecast to just give a general idea of the spatial representative-ness of the snow totals, but like you said, I can definitely see these being adjusted higher with new model consensus. Although if this year taught me anything, is not to get too excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 16 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: My gut is the entire thing ends up north of current consensus. The upper level shortwave/vorticity is pretty far northwest. If it ends up too "straight" and loses its cyclonic curvature, then maybe I could see everything squashed into a weenie band on the south coast or near it...but my gut says north because the shortwave is strong before it enters the confluence and typically I feel like models try and decay them too quickly. W'ell see. But I feel like someone between the pike and S NH/S VT will get the surprise weenie band with ratios. Someone like scooter is going to get currier and ives for hours I think after the main synoptic stuff moves out. The 850-900 layer gets pretty cold so o wouldn't be surprised at good ratios during this time too. There could also be another low level qpf max down in CT/RI. That’s pretty much how I feel. WAA thump at first may have decent ratios and could be south. Another band from lift in DGZ in the area you mentioned. Then the erly ocean enhancement in ern MA extending to ORH hills. Also see weak CF enhancement possible near BOS area. But the WAA could end up north with good 850 SW flow moving over cold dome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 Either way it will be fairly widespread 2-4 from various reasons with maybe a weenie 5 or 6 somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Connecticut Appleman Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 16 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: The 18z rgem was run by a Canadian version of Snow88. I wouldn't mind that outcome, but.. Sad commentary that a potential increase of an inch has become a moral victory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 On air tv meteorologists are quite conservative with this storm, even though they would be better off if they forecasted what the guidance suggests, 4-8" from Hartford, CT to Boston, Ma points southward to the South Coasts of CT, RI, and MA. I think SE MA and Cape Cod will see the most, in a band of OE snows, and a band that comes from the development of the secondary cyclogenesis of the low-pressure center which deepens from 1008mb while near NJ coast to around 995mb southeast of ACK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Either way it will be fairly widespread 2-4 from various reasons with maybe a weenie 5 or 6 somewhere. KU in this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 The secondary could intensify at a quicker pace, which would allow a higher output of moisture from the secondary low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 34 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: 2-4” regionwide, relax. Just chipping away at the deficit with a toothpick. I just watched the Shawshank Redemption.......this is just Andy Dufrain digging through his cell wall with his little rock hammer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 BDL FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 Anyone, when does the 18z EURO come out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderblizzard Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 Just now, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Anyone, when does the 18z EURO come out? In about an hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 13 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: On air tv meteorologists are quite conservative with this storm, even though they would be better off if they forecasted what the guidance suggests, 4-8" from Hartford, CT to Boston, Ma points southward to the South Coasts of CT, RI, and MA. I think SE MA and Cape Cod will see the most, in a band of OE snows, and a band that comes from the development of the secondary cyclogenesis of the low-pressure center which deepens from 1008mb while near NJ coast to around 995mb southeast of ACK. Would you expect anything less? I would be going conservative also given this winter, unlike you who would be saying 6-8" across all of Cape Cod. I think BOX's map is spot on FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 7 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: I just watched the Shawshank Redemption.......this is just Andy Dufrain digging through his cell wall with his little rock hammer. That movie never gets old. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 2 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Anyone, when does the 18z EURO come out? Breathe buddy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: That movie never gets old. Agreed--one of the best of all time. The antithesis of this winter--one of the worst of all time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 We take in SWCT, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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