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Feb 18 overrunning threat


ORH_wxman

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8 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Oh ok, even though every model brings those amounts close if not to that amount for Cape Cod?  With a strengthening/redeveloping secondary low south of Long Island, NY I would think Cape and Islands would be favored for the heaviest snow amounts like past storms given NE ocean enhancement.

Just a quick run through Bufkit for CHH I see 6.1" for the NAM, 3.7 for the NAM3km, and 4.5" for the GFS. So possible not probable, which means confidence for a watch probably isn't there.

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2 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Please explain this to me?

This system like all of them will have warm layers especially in far southern New England.  I would not be surprised if there’s  another bump north with the best dynamics. MPM to Ray to dendrite should do the best.

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1 minute ago, weathafella said:

This system like all of them will have warm layers especially in far southern New England.  I would not be surprised if there’s  another bump north with the best dynamics. MPM to Ray to dendrite should do the best.

The secondary low is not that far north, neither is the primary, I don't see the northern models fairing well at all.

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4 minutes ago, weathafella said:

This system like all of them will have warm layers especially in far southern New England.  I would not be surprised if there’s  another bump north with the best dynamics. MPM to Ray to dendrite should do the best.

Warm layers 

Why? 

There is no primary going thru DET or BUF

and they don’t show up on soundings....

850’s cold 925’s cold 700-800 layer ...nothing warm or near 0c

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1 minute ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

The secondary low is not that far north, neither is the primary, I don't see the northern models fairing well at all.

It is going to come down to the secondary low. I do expect this to come slightly further north but wouldn't be shocked to see this stay south with the low off the NJ coast like the Nam shows.

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1 minute ago, dendrite said:

I think those would all be snow Bob. He's done by 15z Mon anyway.

Like I said, "suggest".  1-3" is what I see for the Cape.  Not 6"+.

I don't think anyone is seeing that.  4-5" looks to be it for a couple weenie spots. (Interior SE MA perhaps)

I see a general 2-4" for SNE up into CNE.

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Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

Like I said, "suggest".  1-3" is what I see for the Cape.  Not 6"+.

I don't think anyone is seeing that.  4-5" looks to be it for a couple weenie spots. (Interior SE MA perhaps)

I see a general 2-4" for SNE up into CNE.

You are going against every piece of model guidance we have, this isn't March, where the sun angle becomes a problem and this isn't December where the ocean is a problem.  This is the middle of February.  There is no southeasterly wind direction where the warmer air will come northward.  The surface winds at worst are out of the NE or E.

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Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

Like I said, "suggest".  1-3" is what I see for the Cape.  Not 6"+.

I don't think anyone is seeing that.  4-5" looks to be it for a couple weenie spots. (Interior SE MA perhaps)

I see a general 2-4" for SNE up into CNE.

Yeah...we'll see. Someone will probably pop off a fluffy 6" somewhere. I still think further north jacks because of ratios and some prolonged H7 light weenie snows whereas down by you may win the QPF battle. But dry layers, lift, thermals, etc are still getting ironed out.

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5 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Warm layers 

Why? 

There is no primary going thru DET or BUF

and they don’t show up on soundings....

850’s cold 925’s cold 700-800 layer ...nothing warm or near 0c

I think this low passes closer than currently modeled.  Hopefully I’m wrong 

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4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

The flow is flying and zonal .

Yeah there’s also confluence.  I’m not sure this is coming north which is why I’m most excited for coastal CT down to NYC as I’ve probably been all winter.  That said I would be surprised if anyone sees over 4-5 inches there 

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