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Feb 18 overrunning threat


ORH_wxman
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Just now, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

I think they could be given the northeasterly winds at the surface

Northeast surface winds aren't going to matter a whole lot, you want to saturate 700 mb or so, and that's a westerly flow. So we need models to be wrong to our west.

There is that first wave Sunday night that more or less is an equal opportunity light snow, but by Monday morning all the RH is north.

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7 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Northeast surface winds aren't going to matter a whole lot, you want to saturate 700 mb or so, and that's a westerly flow. So we need models to be wrong to our west.

There is that first wave Sunday night that more or less is an equal opportunity light snow, but by Monday morning all the RH is north.

Yeah agree. The cloud physics aren’t very impressive as modeled.

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2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Northeast surface winds aren't going to matter a whole lot, you want to saturate 700 mb or so, and that's a westerly flow. So we need models to be wrong to our west.

There is that first wave Sunday night that more or less is an equal opportunity light snow, but by Monday morning all the RH is north.

Why this has no semblance to the firehouse analog. There is no prolonged easterly fetch at any level.

Also, the mechanics, whether overrunning / CCB / IVT event are not solid and long-lasting... the mesos look more spotty and showery but the hope is it will add up.

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2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I'm not sure there is the confidence in 6+ to with a watch.

Oh ok, even though every model brings those amounts close if not to that amount for Cape Cod?  With a strengthening/redeveloping secondary low south of Long Island, NY I would think Cape and Islands would be favored for the heaviest snow amounts like past storms given NE ocean enhancement.

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1 minute ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Oh ok, even though every model brings those amounts close if not to that amount for Cape Cod?  With a strengthening/redeveloping secondary low south of Long Island, NY I would think Cape and Islands would be favored for the heaviest snow amounts like past storms given NE ocean enhancement.

You'll be flirting with sleet, poor snow growth, and dry air in the DGZ. Not a lot of confidence in a watch yet.

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1 minute ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Oh ok, even though every model brings those amounts close if not to that amount for Cape Cod?  With a strengthening/redeveloping secondary low south of Long Island, NY I would think Cape and Islands would be favored for the heaviest snow amounts like past storms given NE ocean enhancement.

Beware of 2 things:

1.  Taint

2.  Proximity to dry slotting

Good luck 

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2 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Oh ok, even though every model brings those amounts close if not to that amount for Cape Cod?  With a strengthening/redeveloping secondary low south of Long Island, NY I would think Cape and Islands would be favored for the heaviest snow amounts like past storms given NE ocean enhancement.

Your making assumptions based on QPF output and snow ratios that are likely not 100% accurate.

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ACK deals with the taint, not CHH and the Cape Cod area.  All models show the mix line only reaching ACK, that is 25 miles to the south.  The storm intensifies rapidly to the south of LI, and sustains cold air over the region.  NAM/GFS/CMC/3 km NAM/EURO/EURO means all show accumulating snow over 4" for the Cape and Islands, no changeover, only guidance to show a mix is the SREFs mean and we all know how accurate that is.  Again lift is strong to intense in the DGZ over CHH according to the Coolwx.com maps.

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Just now, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

ACK deals with the taint, not CHH and the Cape Cod area.  All models show the mix line only reaching ACK, that is 25 miles to the south.  The storm intensifies rapidly to the south of LI, and sustains cold air over the region.  NAM/GFS/CMC/3 km NAM/EURO/EURO means all show accumulating snow over 4" for the Cape and Islands, no changeover, only guidance to show a mix is the SREFs mean and we all know how accurate that is.  Again lift is strong to intense in the DGZ over CHH according to the Coolwx.com maps.

I thought the SREFs were good for trends?

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