USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 On 2/16/2019 at 9:09 PM, dendrite said: If I lived on Cape Cod I would expect rain even under a polar vortex. Expand Then you would be very wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 On 2/16/2019 at 9:04 PM, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Where are you getting the Cape and islands a mix? No model shows that the 18z NAM went colder for the area, back to all snow. Not even the CMC shows rain. Expand NAM soundings are marginal and suggest rain as precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 On 2/16/2019 at 9:09 PM, weathafella said: There’s a risk all the way to the pike though obviously much lower further north. Expand Please explain this to me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 On 2/16/2019 at 9:00 PM, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Oh ok, even though every model brings those amounts close if not to that amount for Cape Cod? With a strengthening/redeveloping secondary low south of Long Island, NY I would think Cape and Islands would be favored for the heaviest snow amounts like past storms given NE ocean enhancement. Expand Just a quick run through Bufkit for CHH I see 6.1" for the NAM, 3.7 for the NAM3km, and 4.5" for the GFS. So possible not probable, which means confidence for a watch probably isn't there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 On 2/16/2019 at 9:10 PM, Baroclinic Zone said: NAM soundings are marginal and suggest rain as precip. Expand Where? The soundings I get on Coolwx.com which I find very accurate, don't show any rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 James good luck man. I’ve seen this movie play out before ....flat zonal flying flow . Either amped to Toronto or weak flying south of us. Out of 20 impulses about 19 have fallen to either camp. Not impressed. This winter blows. 1-2” region wide ill gladly go down with that call if I have to Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
New York Blizzard Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 On 2/16/2019 at 9:08 PM, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Yet you show only 1-3" of accumulations. Expand He’s saying you’re going to taint but in my opinion you may be the jackpot this time around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 On 2/16/2019 at 8:44 PM, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: 18z NAM increases precipitation to around .50-.75" of QPF, 5-8" of snow for Cape Cod Expand BOX has upped their map into 2019 HECS territory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 On 2/16/2019 at 9:07 PM, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: I'm sorry folks, Cape Cod is not changing over to rain. Expand Rgem shows a few inches from NYC to coastal SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 I think those would all be snow Bob. He's done by 15z Mon anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 This may be similar to that Saturday night February event last winter that occurred in the middle of a shit pattern and nobody believed NYC or anyone was getting 4-8 inches and they did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 On 2/16/2019 at 9:10 PM, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Please explain this to me? Expand This system like all of them will have warm layers especially in far southern New England. I would not be surprised if there’s another bump north with the best dynamics. MPM to Ray to dendrite should do the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 Pretty decent cj signal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 On 2/16/2019 at 9:15 PM, weathafella said: This system like all of them will have warm layers especially in far southern New England. I would not be surprised if there’s another bump north with the best dynamics. MPM to Ray to dendrite should do the best. Expand The secondary low is not that far north, neither is the primary, I don't see the northern models fairing well at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 On 2/16/2019 at 9:18 PM, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: The secondary low is not that far north, neither is the primary, I don't see the northern models fairing well at all. Expand Good luck. Still several mode cycles to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 On 2/16/2019 at 9:19 PM, weathafella said: Good luck. Still several mode cycles to go. Expand Still chances for a stronger moisture output too, if this storm wasn't expected to be dynamic at all, then why are models over .50" of QPF for the coastline and south coast of CT, RI, and SE MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 On 2/16/2019 at 9:15 PM, weathafella said: This system like all of them will have warm layers especially in far southern New England. I would not be surprised if there’s another bump north with the best dynamics. MPM to Ray to dendrite should do the best. Expand Warm layers Why? There is no primary going thru DET or BUF and they don’t show up on soundings.... 850’s cold 925’s cold 700-800 layer ...nothing warm or near 0c Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 On 2/16/2019 at 9:18 PM, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: The secondary low is not that far north, neither is the primary, I don't see the northern models fairing well at all. Expand It is going to come down to the secondary low. I do expect this to come slightly further north but wouldn't be shocked to see this stay south with the low off the NJ coast like the Nam shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 On 2/16/2019 at 9:15 PM, dendrite said: I think those would all be snow Bob. He's done by 15z Mon anyway. Expand Like I said, "suggest". 1-3" is what I see for the Cape. Not 6"+. I don't think anyone is seeing that. 4-5" looks to be it for a couple weenie spots. (Interior SE MA perhaps) I see a general 2-4" for SNE up into CNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 On 2/16/2019 at 9:21 PM, Snow88 said: It is going to come down to the secondary low. I do expect this to come slightly further north but wouldn't be shocked to see this stay south with the low off the NJ coast like the Nam shows. Expand The flow is flying and zonal . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 On 2/16/2019 at 9:22 PM, Baroclinic Zone said: Like I said, "suggest". 1-3" is what I see for the Cape. Not 6"+. I don't think anyone is seeing that. 4-5" looks to be it for a couple weenie spots. (Interior SE MA perhaps) I see a general 2-4" for SNE up into CNE. Expand You are going against every piece of model guidance we have, this isn't March, where the sun angle becomes a problem and this isn't December where the ocean is a problem. This is the middle of February. There is no southeasterly wind direction where the warmer air will come northward. The surface winds at worst are out of the NE or E. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 On 2/16/2019 at 9:23 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said: The flow is flying and zonal . There is no NE component to tack and there is no time for this to slow down. I could see an argument for slight ENE track but barely Expand Models slow down the flow off the East Coast, as the secondary low takes shape and starts to intensify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 On 2/16/2019 at 9:22 PM, Baroclinic Zone said: Like I said, "suggest". 1-3" is what I see for the Cape. Not 6"+. I don't think anyone is seeing that. 4-5" looks to be it for a couple weenie spots. (Interior SE MA perhaps) I see a general 2-4" for SNE up into CNE. Expand Yeah...we'll see. Someone will probably pop off a fluffy 6" somewhere. I still think further north jacks because of ratios and some prolonged H7 light weenie snows whereas down by you may win the QPF battle. But dry layers, lift, thermals, etc are still getting ironed out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 JGW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 James asks what everyone thinks and then gets pissed when he gets answers he doesn't like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 On 2/16/2019 at 9:24 PM, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Models slow down the flow off the East Coast, as the secondary low takes shape and starts to intensify. Expand James your really trying hard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 On 2/16/2019 at 9:20 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said: Warm layers Why? There is no primary going thru DET or BUF and they don’t show up on soundings.... 850’s cold 925’s cold 700-800 layer ...nothing warm or near 0c Expand I think this low passes closer than currently modeled. Hopefully I’m wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 On 2/16/2019 at 9:23 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said: The flow is flying and zonal . Expand Yeah there’s also confluence. I’m not sure this is coming north which is why I’m most excited for coastal CT down to NYC as I’ve probably been all winter. That said I would be surprised if anyone sees over 4-5 inches there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 On 2/16/2019 at 9:28 PM, SnowGoose69 said: Yeah there’s also confluence. Expand Yeah but the northern stream is slowly lifting out while the SE ridge goes bonkers. It's not like the typical PV squeeze play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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