USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 On 2/16/2019 at 8:34 PM, OceanStWx said: I mean one concern I see with modeling is the poor RH in the DGZ over parts of SNE. Definitely more saturation to the north. Expand Could the lift in the DGZ actually offset the poor RH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 On 2/16/2019 at 8:39 PM, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Could the lift in the DGZ actually offset the poor RH Expand If it's not saturated you aren't going to grow any crystals. You could get snizzle/drizzle, but you aren't going to get snow. The best case scenario is that modeling is wrong about saturation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 On 2/16/2019 at 8:41 PM, OceanStWx said: If it's not saturated you aren't going to grow any crystals. You could get snizzle/drizzle, but you aren't going to get snow. The best case scenario is that modeling is wrong about saturation. Expand I think they could be given the northeasterly winds at the surface Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 On 2/16/2019 at 8:42 PM, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: I think they could be given the northeasterly winds at the surface Expand Northeast surface winds aren't going to matter a whole lot, you want to saturate 700 mb or so, and that's a westerly flow. So we need models to be wrong to our west. There is that first wave Sunday night that more or less is an equal opportunity light snow, but by Monday morning all the RH is north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 18z NAM increases precipitation to around .50-.75" of QPF, 5-8" of snow for Cape Cod Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 On 2/16/2019 at 8:44 PM, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: 18z NAM increases precipitation to around .50-.75" of QPF, 5-8" of snow for Cape Cod Expand The 3K and 12K prior to 40 went opposite directions. The 12 seems to have gone warmer and north while the 3 is south and colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 On 2/16/2019 at 8:49 PM, SnowGoose69 said: The 3K and 12K prior to 40 went opposite directions. The 12 seems to have gone warmer and north while the 3 is south and colder Expand Go with the 3KM, it is a higher resolution model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 On 2/16/2019 at 8:44 PM, OceanStWx said: Northeast surface winds aren't going to matter a whole lot, you want to saturate 700 mb or so, and that's a westerly flow. So we need models to be wrong to our west. There is that first wave Sunday night that more or less is an equal opportunity light snow, but by Monday morning all the RH is north. Expand Yeah agree. The cloud physics aren’t very impressive as modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 On 2/16/2019 at 8:34 PM, OceanStWx said: I mean one concern I see with modeling is the poor RH in the DGZ over parts of SNE. Definitely more saturation to the north. Expand Evident in EURO H7 RH fields....blogging about that now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 On 2/16/2019 at 8:52 PM, CoastalWx said: Yeah agree. The cloud physics aren’t very impressive as modeled. Expand Everyone loves their Currier and Ives in February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 Anyone think Cape and Islands could see a Winter Storm Watch issued? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 On 2/16/2019 at 8:44 PM, OceanStWx said: Northeast surface winds aren't going to matter a whole lot, you want to saturate 700 mb or so, and that's a westerly flow. So we need models to be wrong to our west. There is that first wave Sunday night that more or less is an equal opportunity light snow, but by Monday morning all the RH is north. Expand Why this has no semblance to the firehouse analog. There is no prolonged easterly fetch at any level. Also, the mechanics, whether overrunning / CCB / IVT event are not solid and long-lasting... the mesos look more spotty and showery but the hope is it will add up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 On 2/16/2019 at 8:55 PM, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Anyone think Cape and Islands could see a Winter Storm Watch issued? Expand I'm not sure there is the confidence in 6+ to with a watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 On 2/16/2019 at 8:50 PM, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Go with the 3KM, it is a higher resolution model Expand Take a look at the modeled radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 On 2/16/2019 at 8:56 PM, OceanStWx said: I'm not sure there is the confidence in 6+ to with a watch. Expand Oh ok, even though every model brings those amounts close if not to that amount for Cape Cod? With a strengthening/redeveloping secondary low south of Long Island, NY I would think Cape and Islands would be favored for the heaviest snow amounts like past storms given NE ocean enhancement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 First Call: https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2019/02/snowy-but-manageable-presidents-day-in.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 When ACK sees mix of rain/snow, CHH sees all snow, you can expect CHH to see heavier snows. NAM brings the area 6-10" of snow with a 10, 12:1 ratio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 On 2/16/2019 at 9:00 PM, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Oh ok, even though every model brings those amounts close if not to that amount for Cape Cod? With a strengthening/redeveloping secondary low south of Long Island, NY I would think Cape and Islands would be favored for the heaviest snow amounts like past storms given NE ocean enhancement. Expand You'll be flirting with sleet, poor snow growth, and dry air in the DGZ. Not a lot of confidence in a watch yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 On 2/16/2019 at 9:00 PM, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Oh ok, even though every model brings those amounts close if not to that amount for Cape Cod? With a strengthening/redeveloping secondary low south of Long Island, NY I would think Cape and Islands would be favored for the heaviest snow amounts like past storms given NE ocean enhancement. Expand Beware of 2 things: 1. Taint 2. Proximity to dry slotting Good luck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 On 2/16/2019 at 9:00 PM, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Oh ok, even though every model brings those amounts close if not to that amount for Cape Cod? With a strengthening/redeveloping secondary low south of Long Island, NY I would think Cape and Islands would be favored for the heaviest snow amounts like past storms given NE ocean enhancement. Expand Your making assumptions based on QPF output and snow ratios that are likely not 100% accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 On 2/16/2019 at 9:03 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: First Call: https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2019/02/snowy-but-manageable-presidents-day-in.html Expand Where are you getting the Cape and islands a mix? No model shows that the 18z NAM went colder for the area, back to all snow. Not even the CMC shows rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 On 2/16/2019 at 9:04 PM, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Where are you getting the Cape and islands a mix? No model shows that the 18z NAM went colder for the area, back to all snow. Not even the CMC shows rain. Expand Cmc is cold even down here. Similiar to the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 ACK deals with the taint, not CHH and the Cape Cod area. All models show the mix line only reaching ACK, that is 25 miles to the south. The storm intensifies rapidly to the south of LI, and sustains cold air over the region. NAM/GFS/CMC/3 km NAM/EURO/EURO means all show accumulating snow over 4" for the Cape and Islands, no changeover, only guidance to show a mix is the SREFs mean and we all know how accurate that is. Again lift is strong to intense in the DGZ over CHH according to the Coolwx.com maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 On 2/16/2019 at 9:04 PM, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Where are you getting the Cape and islands a mix? No model shows that the 18z NAM went colder for the area, back to all snow. Not even the CMC shows rain. Expand Should not affect accumulations much....just near the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 I'm sorry folks, Cape Cod is not changing over to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 On 2/16/2019 at 9:07 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Should not affect accumulations much....just near the end. Expand Yet you show only 1-3" of accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 On 2/16/2019 at 9:07 PM, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: ACK deals with the taint, not CHH and the Cape Cod area. All models show the mix line only reaching ACK, that is 25 miles to the south. The storm intensifies rapidly to the south of LI, and sustains cold air over the region. NAM/GFS/CMC/3 km NAM/EURO/EURO means all show accumulating snow over 4" for the Cape and Islands, no changeover, only guidance to show a mix is the SREFs mean and we all know how accurate that is. Again lift is strong to intense in the DGZ over CHH according to the Coolwx.com maps. Expand I thought the SREFs were good for trends? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 On 2/16/2019 at 9:08 PM, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Yet you show only 1-3" of accumulations. Expand Compared to the crippling 2-4" across the bridge? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 If I lived on Cape Cod I would expect rain even under a polar vortex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 On 2/16/2019 at 9:07 PM, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: I'm sorry folks, Cape Cod is not changing over to rain. Expand There’s a risk all the way to the pike though obviously much lower further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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