MJO812 Posted September 21, 2019 Share Posted September 21, 2019 33 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: 18Z GFS has a solution a bit like the 12Z Euro. System comes north and then gets stuck before being pushed back west or southwest 12z geps also show that solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted September 22, 2019 Share Posted September 22, 2019 Convection has really blown up on 99L in the past few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 22, 2019 Share Posted September 22, 2019 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2019 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Updated for the low pressure area near the Windward Islands. The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Jerry, located a few hundred miles north of Puerto Rico. Updated: A strong tropical wave, accompanied by a broad low pressure area located between Barbados and Tobago, is producing showers and thunderstorms that are showing signs of organization. In addition, recent satellite-derived surface wind data and observations from Barbados indicate that the disturbance is producing winds to near tropical storm force in the eastern portion of the system. Further development of this disturbance is expected over the next couple of days, and a tropical depression or tropical storm will likely form while it moves westward and then northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the Windward Islands and over the eastern Caribbean Sea. The system is then expected to turn northward, moving near Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands on Tuesday. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and strong gusty winds are likely over much of the Lesser Antilles during the next couple of days and will likely spread across Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands by Monday night or Tuesday. Interests across the eastern Caribbean should monitor the progress of this disturbance since tropical storm watches and warnings could be required for portions of the Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands on Sunday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 22, 2019 Share Posted September 22, 2019 And there you go.... the 00z Euro has 99L getting caught under the ridge. It sends a strengthening system steadily wsw into Cuba, a la Ike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted September 22, 2019 Share Posted September 22, 2019 Almost all the models take this system straight back west under the monster ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted September 23, 2019 Author Share Posted September 23, 2019 After this, I can't imagine much more named storms unless a La Nina develops (we are in nowhere land). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 23, 2019 Share Posted September 23, 2019 12z GFS doesn't have much in the MDR developing after Lorenzo recurves way out to sea in the middle of the ATL... there looks to be a system way out that forms and meanders in the Yucatan Peninsula as we get towards the end of the first week of October... and then looks like some homebrew at the very end of the run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STxVortex Posted September 23, 2019 Share Posted September 23, 2019 NHC is now mentioning a "Disturbance 1" near the northeastern tip of Yucatan, it has a 10%/2day-20%/5day chance of becoming TD Melissa or 100L. I'd bet that this is the same wave that had been appearing on the earlier forecasts to the ESE of Jamaica and was dropped a couple days ago. Looks to be headed for Veracruz or Tampico, MX, but I'll just get a little nervous anyway :] . Anything around the very warm Bay of Campeche at this time of year has a chance of cooking off. ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2019 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Jerry, located several hundred miles southwest of Bermuda, on Tropical Storm Karen, located over the eastern Caribbean Sea, and recently upgraded Tropical Storm Lorenzo located several hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands. 1. A broad and elongated area of low pressure is located near the northeast tip of the Yucatan peninsula. This system is currently producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the southeast Gulf of Mexico. Some gradual development of the disturbance is possible while it moves slowly westward across the southwestern Gulf of Mexico during the next several days before it reaches the northeast coast of Mexico late Friday or Saturday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Lorenzo are issued under WMO header WTNT33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT3. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Lorenzo are issued under WMO header WTNT23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT3. Forecaster Zelinsk https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/xgtwo/two_atl_2d0.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 Harvey part II in the fantasy land 0z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 2 hours ago, Scott747 said: Harvey part II in the fantasy land 0z GFS. I saw that yesterday with the 18z GFS. I was like WTF is that coming across the GOM and slamming into TX (and figured it couldn't be Karen)?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 Levi Cowan from Tropical Tidbits will be on the Weather Geeks show tomorrow - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted September 25, 2019 Share Posted September 25, 2019 Looks like this time next week we could have a developing system coming off of Africa and another one in the western Caribbean. The African one looks like a low rider with a big ridge above it, could make it across the Atlantic without turning out to sea. The Caribbean one would make landfall somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 26, 2019 Share Posted September 26, 2019 Lorenzo should become intense enough to get the N. Atlantic Basin above the century mark for ACE. @ 88.8 we are just above climatological mean of 76.4 for this date in the season. This season should finish well above average as we may have a few more MDR systems. Of course there is always the western Caribbean to watch out for in Oct. At this time, the N. Atl. and N. Indian are the only basins above seasonal average for calendar date. The N. Hemisphere as a whole is below average @ date with 332.3 (373.1). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 26, 2019 Share Posted September 26, 2019 13 hours ago, cptcatz said: Looks like this time next week we could have a developing system coming off of Africa and another one in the western Caribbean. The African one looks like a low rider with a big ridge above it, could make it across the Atlantic without turning out to sea. The Caribbean one would make landfall somewhere. The 00z Euro has a pretty deep trough digging in days 9-10 that would likely break down the ridge and pull the system North as it approaches 40W. Hopefully that trough is overdone. The 06z GFS looks similar for the same time period. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 26, 2019 Share Posted September 26, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 26, 2019 Share Posted September 26, 2019 The Euro still has quick development of another Cape Verde system towards the end of next week. This time around the ridging looks to be a bit stronger, at least until the system reaches the Central MDR. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSLwx Posted September 26, 2019 Share Posted September 26, 2019 I was just at a meeting with a South Florida Water Management District board member. I told her that a great many people follow their Hurricane Model Plots page during the season and that their radar was especially helpful in following Dorian over the Bahamas. She was very pleased, and said she would mention it at a future meeting. If you'd like to join me saying a quick thank you, click on the orange "Ask Us" tab at the top of this page. They do read them! https://www.sfwmd.gov/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted September 29, 2019 Share Posted September 29, 2019 On 9/26/2019 at 3:01 PM, PSLwx said: I was just at a meeting with a South Florida Water Management District board member. I told her that a great many people follow their Hurricane Model Plots page during the season and that their radar was especially helpful in following Dorian over the Bahamas. She was very pleased, and said she would mention it at a future meeting. If you'd like to join me saying a quick thank you, click on the orange "Ask Us" tab at the top of this page. They do read them! https://www.sfwmd.gov/ Thanks alot. They'll probably get rid of it now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted September 29, 2019 Share Posted September 29, 2019 It's always amazing to me to see that storm tops can be nearly -90C in the tropics (Tropical Storm Narda) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted September 30, 2019 Share Posted September 30, 2019 The past couple days of GFS runs all have a powerful hurricane forming in the south Caribbean in a couple weeks. It's obviously really far down the road but will be interesting to see if the models keep it up. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 30, 2019 Share Posted September 30, 2019 11 hours ago, cptcatz said: The past couple days of GFS runs all have a powerful hurricane forming in the south Caribbean in a couple weeks. It's obviously really far down the road but will be interesting to see if the models keep it up. 6z still has it. This is the time of the year for those storms to pop up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 30, 2019 Share Posted September 30, 2019 6z still has it. This is the time of the year for those storms to pop up. Such development is very typical of the pattern. The fantasy storm is developing out of a SW Caribbean-Central American surface trough/gyre, not entirely different from Nate in '17 or Michael in '18. Essentially westward propagating tropical waves move into contact and interact with said gyre, amplifying low-level convergence. All you need is a decent upper level high in place and voila. Also steering currents and place of cyclogenesis is critical, of course; and some monster storms have developed out of these features over the years: Mitch, Otto, Wilma, Kate, Michael being the most notable. Hopefully anything that does develop remains weak or doesn't go through one of the aforementioned major hurricane landfall scenarios. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted September 30, 2019 Share Posted September 30, 2019 12z GFS still has the big Caribbean storm at the end of the run, and the 12z Euro shows a small African wave trying to develop this Wednesday. The model shows it barely getting across the Atlantic, but if it makes it into the eastern Caribbean, that could be another one to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 30, 2019 Share Posted September 30, 2019 12z GFS still has the big Caribbean storm at the end of the run, and the 12z Euro shows a small African wave trying to develop this Wednesday. The model shows it barely getting across the Atlantic, but if it makes it into the eastern Caribbean, that could be another one to watch.MJO has moved into a suppressive phase. But we'll see where everything lines up in about 10 days. In the meantime it should be quiet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted October 2, 2019 Share Posted October 2, 2019 18z GFS now shows two storms brewing in the Caribbean around October 13. The western one still very big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted October 4, 2019 Share Posted October 4, 2019 Still some hints of possible development in the Caribbean Sea towards the end of some model runs. The African wave train has slowed and we are getting out of the MDR season. I would focus on the Caribbean, Gulf, and Atlantic Coasts in the coming weeks, especially if some of these first fronts of the season making it through hang up over the warm waters of this area. I think we will still see a few more systems before all is said and done 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted October 5, 2019 Share Posted October 5, 2019 The GFS is still loving that storm developing in the south Caribbean on October 13, although it keeps going back and forth on it moving north towards Cuba or west into Central America. It's been forecasting it for over a week now... attached is 9/28, 10/2 and today, all showing 18z October 13. Pretty darn consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted October 8, 2019 Share Posted October 8, 2019 1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said: That (southern) area of disturbed weather off the SE coast actually looks pretty good all things considered. There's clearly a low level swirl with convection displaced to the northeast. 40% odds for development now. 12z Euro is more robust on odds of development in the next 24 hours. It's been bringing tons of much needed rain here in SE Florida. It's been thunderstorming almost nonstop for the past two days in Boca Raton. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted October 8, 2019 Share Posted October 8, 2019 I can't remember seeing so many suspect areas/formations/storms at or above 30N as this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 9, 2019 Share Posted October 9, 2019 GFS keeps insisting on an impressive storm in the Caribbean next week. Most other models are not too bullish and show a minimal TS at best. This system originates from South America, which is kind of unusual and one of the reasons I'm not sold on the idea. A lot of heat potential in the western Carib, if something can stall over water long enough its an easy CAT 5 like Wilma or Mitch. There hasn't been a major in the western Carib in a long time. Mathew didn't really make it past the eastern tip of Cuba. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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