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2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season


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2 hours ago, cptcatz said:

Today's 12z Euro ends with 97L getting blocked just northeast of the Bahamas, even moving back south in the last frame.  And then it has the next wave getting pretty strong way out in the Atlantic.  Not sure what you people are saying about questioning the activity... it looks like wave after wave is developing now.

ecmwf_uv850_vort_atl_fh168-240.gif

My apologies...It seemed that some thought it the setup favored more activity getting closer to the coast. Could've misread that, though...sorry for derailing the thread.

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1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

My apologies...It seemed that some thought it the setup favored more activity getting closer to the coast. Could've misread that, though...sorry for derailing the thread.

I'm still kind of new to tropical weather tracking, but is it even possible to predict activity getting closer to the coast? I thought actual tracks of the storms were more luck as the storm played out rather than being able to predict well weeks or months in advance. 

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Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

I haven’t followed closely but it looks like there’s persistent convection and a low level center that formed. Proximity to land is an issue but it certainly looks close to me.

NHC only has a yellow tag on it... 30% before "landfall" late tonight...  Maybe it will be reviewed after the season but I think its too late

 

This was the NHC 8am disco on it:

2. Shower activity associated with a broad area of low pressure located
over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico near the central Texas coast
has changed little in organization. However, some slight development
is still possible before the system moves inland along the
northwestern Gulf coast later tonight or early Wednesday. Regardless
of development, this disturbance is expected to produce areas of
very heavy rainfall and possible flash flooding along the coastal
regions of southwestern Louisiana and central and upper Texas
tonight and Wednesday, and over eastern Texas and western Louisiana
on Thursday. For additional information, see products issued by your
local weather forecast office and the Weather Prediction Center.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

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BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eleven Special Advisory Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112019
1200 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS NEAR THE TEXAS COAST...
...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING...


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CDT...1700 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.7N 95.4W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM SSW OF FREEPORT TEXAS
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SW OF GALVESTON TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the coast of Texas
from Sargent to Port Bolivar.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Sargent to Port Bolivar

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next few hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 PM CDT (1700 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven
was located near latitude 28.7 North, longitude 95.4 West. The
depression is moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h), and
this general motion is expected to continue through early
Wednesday. A north-northwestward motion is expected Wednesday night
and Thursday.  On the forecast track, the center of the depression
will move inland over the Upper Texas coast later today, and move
farther inland tonight and Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is possible before the center moves
onshore.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  The depression is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulation of 5 to 10 inches with isolated maximum of 15 inches
across the upper coastal region of Texas into far southwest
Louisiana through Thursday.  This rainfall may produce life-
threatening flash floods.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the
warning area this afternoon and evening.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Just now, hlcater said:

And we have TS Imelda at 1pm CDT.

And landfall too?

Tropical Storm Imelda Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112019
1245 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019

...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM IMELDA...

Surface observations indicate that the depression has strengthened
as it nears the coast and has become Tropical Storm Imelda, with
maximum sustained winds near 40 mph (65 km/h). A National Ocean
Service observing site at Freeport, Texas, recently reported a
sustained wind of 40 mph (65 km/h) and a wind gust of 47 mph (76
km/h).


SUMMARY OF 1245 PM CDT...1745 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.9N 95.3W
ABOUT 0 MI...0 KM S OF FREEPORT TEXAS
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM SW OF GALVESTON TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brennan/Brown
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5 minutes ago, Floydbuster said:

By all accounts, things are gonna be very active in the next few weeks. We'll see if Karen and Lorenzo make their way off Africa before that wave season shuts down.

According to the last few Euro runs, it has Karen forming off the coast of Africa and getting huge in the mid-Atlantic and Lorenzo forming in the southeast Caribbean, both within the next week or so.

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23 minutes ago, Floydbuster said:

By all accounts, things are gonna be very active in the next few weeks. We'll see if Karen and Lorenzo make their way off Africa before that wave season shuts down.

From the Meteosat it's looking like the wave train is full steam ahead.  There are several strong and a couple weaker ones lined up like a bowling ball return. We'll see how it pans out, but with the activity over equatorial Africa and the incoming Kelvin Wave it could get very very interesting.  Seems #10 and the next wave models have are going to have some decent SAL to fight off so we shall watch the battle begin. :guitar:

 

7WwVkkNbNaUCa.jpg

534T84cElAuRp.jpg

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99L is looking pretty juicy this morning. It's really far South in the MDR but NHC gave it 20/30% chance of development over the next 2/5 days. The 06z GFS actually has some development followed by an eventual landfall near the Venezuela, Guyana border. The Euro pretty much has this following Jerry, developing both this system and the one behind it into powerful hurricanes.

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31 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

99L is looking pretty juicy this morning. It's really far South in the MDR but NHC gave it 20/30% chance of development over the next 2/5 days. The 06z GFS actually has some development followed by an eventual landfall near the Venezuela, Guyana border. The Euro pretty much has this following Jerry, developing both this system and the one behind it into powerful hurricanes.

Also because the upper air environment and upper level winds are forecast to become less conducive for development once the wave gets to near the Caribbean Sea

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As per comments above on the active pattern over equatorial Africa, this is the first time I recall the NHC calling attention to a wave actually still over land in Africa, although I'll admit I don't look at this graphic every day.  Do others recall seeing a wave over Africa being evaluated like this?  NHC has a 70% chance of formation over the next 5 days, which is also quite high for a system that is over land.  

two_atl_5d0.png

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If I recall, it happened with the wave that became Irma two years ago, but that wasn't quite as deep into Africa when NHC first mentioned it.

As per comments above on the active pattern over equatorial Africa, this is the first time I recall the NHC calling attention to a wave actually still over land in Africa, although I'll admit I don't look at this graphic every day.  Do others recall seeing a wave over Africa being evaluated like this?  NHC has a 70% chance of formation over the next 5 days, which is also quite high for a system that is over land.  
two_atl_5d0.png&key=855eed0b5c51b1c250be282d1feefb408fbb6e6c5ef5fe77c5ba85d32d9081b2


Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

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11 hours ago, RU848789 said:

As per comments above on the active pattern over equatorial Africa, this is the first time I recall the NHC calling attention to a wave actually still over land in Africa, although I'll admit I don't look at this graphic every day.  Do others recall seeing a wave over Africa being evaluated like this?  NHC has a 70% chance of formation over the next 5 days, which is also quite high for a system that is over land.  

two_atl_5d0.png

Here's the update on that map (with the downgrade of Jerry) -

EE-nMyrU4AAZG9G.png

Looks like they plan to look at that latest system (Windward Islands one) later today (with another recon planned for tomorrow) - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD.shtml

Quote

000
NOUS42 KNHC 201821
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0220 PM EDT FRI 20 SEPTEMBER 2019
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 21/1100Z TO 22/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2019
         TCPOD NUMBER.....19-115 CORRECTION

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. HURRICANE JERRY
       FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 74
       A. 22/1200Z
       B. AFXXX 0910A JERRY
       C. 22/1000Z
       D. 23.6N 68.0W
       E. 22/1130Z TO 22/1500Z
       F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

    2. SUSPECT AREA (SE OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS)
       FLIGHT ONE - NOAA 42          FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 76
       A. 21/1800Z                   A. 22/1130Z,1730Z
       B. NOAA2 01DDA INVEST         B. AFXXX 0112A CYCLONE
       C. 21/1430Z                   C. 22/0915Z
       D. 10.0N 56.0W                D. 11.5N 60.0W
       E. 21/1730Z TO 21/2130Z       E. 22/1100Z TO 22/1730Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT           F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

 

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Likewise NCEP forecasts a strong heat ridge over the eastern CONUS the remainder of the month into Oct. Don't just assume modeling will follow suite with every MDR to Caribbean system from here on out. It only takes one getting missed by a weakness and slipping under an ECONUS ridge at the right time to end up as far west as the Gulf. Ridge and trough interactions are dynamic, not held within stasis.

 

Even looking at current global modeling, a case in point. Look at the location of fantasy hurricane moving under the ridge into an amped CONUS pattern. That would spell trouble:388d4ed927ade4105cec4bb25692ad16.jpg

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