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2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season


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The trend today is to the east with 95L, the ICON and UKIE keep the storm moving N or NNW off the east coast of Florida and it sounds like the 18Z Euro took a big step in that direction.....if that is the case then this could potentially end up a stronger storm and close enough to directly impact areas still dealing with the effects of Dorian....

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Something I would like to point out as a reminder about the NHC Outlook's hatched regions with respect to potential cyclone development: These are not intended to be a representation of track nor to be confused as track guidance, they are merely to show a most probable region for a disturbance / area of invest to undergo cyclogenesis. Too many times I see reference to these discussed as forecast track, when in reality, any cyclogenesis that occurs could begin to track towards another direction once a system has been classified. For example, 95L's sharp wave axis or area of low pressure could form a vortex at highest forecast probability anywhere within that hatched zone, but the classified depression or tropical cyclone could immediately begin tracking west from initialization, north or even northeast.

 

I am not accusing anyone of this in current discussion with 95L, but I have certainly seen it done here in the past and elsewhere. Additonally, this is also why the NHC will usually use arrows from an invest's location to a hatched region when they feel it will not develop at its current location. In that case, you can assume some track for the disturbance in an official sense, but only to the region of expected higher probs for cyclogenesis. Before any of this, it's just model slag discussion really.

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18 minutes ago, TPAwx said:

To say the Euro had a different solution overnight on 95L is an understatement.

Cat 3 off Carolinas and then landfall in southern NJ as a Cat 2.

Yeah, that would be quite the solution at 216.  2 hurricanes off the Atlantic seaboard would be quite the all-time satellite photo and would most likely melt down the forum...

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27 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Sandy was captured by a trough, the Euro has it pushed inland by a strong high. Kinda similar track, totally different synoptics.

Not really. There was a huge push from the N ATL with anomalous ridging. In fact that train wreck was the catalyst for the insane north to west bend , maybe as much or more than the trough absorbing it. 

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2 minutes ago, tarheelwx said:

I think the GFS rolls almost everything out to sea at this range. At least anything near the Bahamas or Southeast coast. 

TW

Although I know these models often have fantasy stuff in the long range, sometimes they do latch onto the right solution but for the wrong reason during that timeframe. The mid-range is when you see them go all "opposite" of what they hinted at in the long range though. :lol:

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I don't think any of them are saying this is Sandy wire to wire. We all know that nothing will probably rival that storm in our lifetimes but Sandy is the first thought when I saw that also. Yes, not as big nor slow but anytime the models have a storm consistently like they've been having, it's probably happening. Just going to be a question of where does it track? It is a great setup for an EC threat.

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We're probably going to get another TD by tonight. 8AM update gives 60% chance 48hrs, 90% chance within 5 days on the tropical wave out in the MDR. Models have it eventually following the weakness in the ridge left behind from Humberto but a lot can change. The 00z Euro takes the system very close to Barbuda this weekend. 

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Today's 12z Euro ends with 97L getting blocked just northeast of the Bahamas, even moving back south in the last frame.  And then it has the next wave getting pretty strong way out in the Atlantic.  Not sure what you people are saying about questioning the activity... it looks like wave after wave is developing now.

ecmwf_uv850_vort_atl_fh168-240.gif

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