NJwx85 Posted September 11, 2019 Share Posted September 11, 2019 1 minute ago, bdgwx said: Yeah, and take a look at what the EPS control run does with it past hour 240. Yipes! Don't currently have access. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted September 11, 2019 Share Posted September 11, 2019 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Don't currently have access. 932mb near Boston. Edit: That was the 0Z cycle. 12Z cycle isn't out that far yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRSno Posted September 11, 2019 Share Posted September 11, 2019 7 minutes ago, bdgwx said: 932mb near Boston. Edit: That was the 0Z cycle. 12Z cycle isn't out that far yet. 12z GFS has it up to Boston too at 288h, although I'm sure it'll change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted September 11, 2019 Share Posted September 11, 2019 So it mostly shows an out to sea solution? TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 11, 2019 Share Posted September 11, 2019 14 minutes ago, tarheelwx said: So it mostly shows an out to sea solution? TW Too early to say Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted September 11, 2019 Share Posted September 11, 2019 95L gets its cherry, 50% 2 day, 70% 5 day.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anemone Posted September 12, 2019 Share Posted September 12, 2019 35 minutes ago, NavarreDon said: 95L gets its cherry, 50% 2 day, 70% 5 day. . This one's going straight for Alabama. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 12, 2019 Share Posted September 12, 2019 This one's going straight for Alabama. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 12, 2019 Share Posted September 12, 2019 The trend today is to the east with 95L, the ICON and UKIE keep the storm moving N or NNW off the east coast of Florida and it sounds like the 18Z Euro took a big step in that direction.....if that is the case then this could potentially end up a stronger storm and close enough to directly impact areas still dealing with the effects of Dorian.... 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 12, 2019 Share Posted September 12, 2019 Something I would like to point out as a reminder about the NHC Outlook's hatched regions with respect to potential cyclone development: These are not intended to be a representation of track nor to be confused as track guidance, they are merely to show a most probable region for a disturbance / area of invest to undergo cyclogenesis. Too many times I see reference to these discussed as forecast track, when in reality, any cyclogenesis that occurs could begin to track towards another direction once a system has been classified. For example, 95L's sharp wave axis or area of low pressure could form a vortex at highest forecast probability anywhere within that hatched zone, but the classified depression or tropical cyclone could immediately begin tracking west from initialization, north or even northeast. I am not accusing anyone of this in current discussion with 95L, but I have certainly seen it done here in the past and elsewhere. Additonally, this is also why the NHC will usually use arrows from an invest's location to a hatched region when they feel it will not develop at its current location. In that case, you can assume some track for the disturbance in an official sense, but only to the region of expected higher probs for cyclogenesis. Before any of this, it's just model slag discussion really. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted September 12, 2019 Share Posted September 12, 2019 To say the Euro had a different solution overnight on 95L is an understatement. Cat 3 off Carolinas and then landfall in southern NJ as a Cat 2. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted September 12, 2019 Share Posted September 12, 2019 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LSC97wxnut Posted September 12, 2019 Share Posted September 12, 2019 18 minutes ago, TPAwx said: To say the Euro had a different solution overnight on 95L is an understatement. Cat 3 off Carolinas and then landfall in southern NJ as a Cat 2. Yeah, that would be quite the solution at 216. 2 hurricanes off the Atlantic seaboard would be quite the all-time satellite photo and would most likely melt down the forum... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 12, 2019 Share Posted September 12, 2019 LOL at the 00z Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted September 12, 2019 Share Posted September 12, 2019 Is that Sandy? LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 12, 2019 Share Posted September 12, 2019 9 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Is that Sandy? LOL. That was my first thought too...wow that looks eerily similar. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 12, 2019 Share Posted September 12, 2019 41 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: LOL at the 00z Euro Alot of blocking to the east. 6z spaghetti models were mostly on the east coast. Nhc gives this a 80 percent chance of developing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 12, 2019 Share Posted September 12, 2019 21 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Is that Sandy? LOL. 11 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: That was my first thought too...wow that looks eerily similar. Not quite on the same level Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 12, 2019 Share Posted September 12, 2019 19 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: That was my first thought too...wow that looks eerily similar. Sandy was captured by a trough, the Euro has it pushed inland by a strong high. Kinda similar track, totally different synoptics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 12, 2019 Share Posted September 12, 2019 20 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Not quite on the same level Neither the 0z or 6z GFS have the storm until days later and then roll is right out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted September 12, 2019 Share Posted September 12, 2019 27 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: Sandy was captured by a trough, the Euro has it pushed inland by a strong high. Kinda similar track, totally different synoptics. Not really. There was a huge push from the N ATL with anomalous ridging. In fact that train wreck was the catalyst for the insane north to west bend , maybe as much or more than the trough absorbing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted September 12, 2019 Share Posted September 12, 2019 25 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said: Neither the 0z or 6z GFS have the storm until days later and then roll is right out to sea. I think the GFS rolls almost everything out to sea at this range. At least anything near the Bahamas or Southeast coast. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 12, 2019 Share Posted September 12, 2019 2 minutes ago, tarheelwx said: I think the GFS rolls almost everything out to sea at this range. At least anything near the Bahamas or Southeast coast. TW Although I know these models often have fantasy stuff in the long range, sometimes they do latch onto the right solution but for the wrong reason during that timeframe. The mid-range is when you see them go all "opposite" of what they hinted at in the long range though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted September 12, 2019 Share Posted September 12, 2019 I don't think any of them are saying this is Sandy wire to wire. We all know that nothing will probably rival that storm in our lifetimes but Sandy is the first thought when I saw that also. Yes, not as big nor slow but anytime the models have a storm consistently like they've been having, it's probably happening. Just going to be a question of where does it track? It is a great setup for an EC threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted September 12, 2019 Share Posted September 12, 2019 Euro op stays offshore but brings a sustained strong fetch up to the NE. A few ensembles cut across the FL peninsula but most stay offshore. Mostly good news relative to 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted September 14, 2019 Author Share Posted September 14, 2019 ENSO Subsurface getting more La Nina like for an active October, possibly. it will take a pattern change... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 16, 2019 Share Posted September 16, 2019 We're probably going to get another TD by tonight. 8AM update gives 60% chance 48hrs, 90% chance within 5 days on the tropical wave out in the MDR. Models have it eventually following the weakness in the ridge left behind from Humberto but a lot can change. The 00z Euro takes the system very close to Barbuda this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted September 16, 2019 Share Posted September 16, 2019 A little surprised the Gulf disturbance doesn't have higher probs. At the least this is going to be a flooding concern in the Houston area as the developing low gets trapped under the ridge for 2-3 days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted September 16, 2019 Share Posted September 16, 2019 Today's 12z Euro ends with 97L getting blocked just northeast of the Bahamas, even moving back south in the last frame. And then it has the next wave getting pretty strong way out in the Atlantic. Not sure what you people are saying about questioning the activity... it looks like wave after wave is developing now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted September 16, 2019 Share Posted September 16, 2019 This year's ridging just doesn't seem as strong as we've seen in the last couple of seasons. This is why storms like Dorian, Humberto and now possibly 97L do the whole "slow down" and "stalling" stuff. There isn't enough of a dominant pushing ridge. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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