cptcatz Posted September 9, 2019 Share Posted September 9, 2019 2 minutes ago, yoda said: 12z EURO would like to know about these tropical systems you are talking about He's just a late bloomer but eventually joins the party Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 9, 2019 Share Posted September 9, 2019 2 minutes ago, cptcatz said: He's just a late bloomer but eventually joins the party EURO 1006mb SLP vs GFS 954mb Plus EURO comes from a devloping low off of the just NW of PR at 192... GFS has the TC from before the Windward Islands Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted September 9, 2019 Share Posted September 9, 2019 2 minutes ago, yoda said: EURO 1006mb SLP vs GFS 954mb Plus EURO comes from a devloping low off of the just NW of PR at 192... GFS has the TC from before the Windward Islands It's almost the exact same route that Dorian took through the Caribbean. Does anyone know how the GFS and Euro looked at this point for Dorian? Tropical Tidbits only goes back to September 2. I'd love to see the models from mid-August. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted September 9, 2019 Share Posted September 9, 2019 14 minutes ago, bluewave said: The Euro had to play catch-up with the initial formation of Dorian. https://mobile.twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1165274788564209664 https://mobile.twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1164956582926405632 Very interesting. This soon-to-be-95L could be another big one then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted September 9, 2019 Share Posted September 9, 2019 The 18z GFS decimates the entire state of Florida 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 9, 2019 Share Posted September 9, 2019 6 minutes ago, cptcatz said: The 18z GFS decimates the entire state of Florida Kinda unrealistic how quick it recovers after being swallowed up by Hispanola, but... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted September 9, 2019 Share Posted September 9, 2019 39 minutes ago, cptcatz said: The 18z GFS decimates the entire state of Florida Keep us posted 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 10, 2019 Share Posted September 10, 2019 1 hour ago, olafminesaw said: Kinda unrealistic how quick it recovers after being swallowed up by Hispanola, but... Yeah that system would be destroyed under that circumstance unless it was moving 25 kts as it crossed Hispaniola Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted September 10, 2019 Share Posted September 10, 2019 5 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said: Yeah that system would be destroyed under that circumstance unless it was moving 25 kts as it crossed Hispaniola The GFS shows a dynamic outflow setup over the Bahamas/Straits prior to Florida landfall. That's probably why the dramatic intensification. Or the model is on crack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 10, 2019 Share Posted September 10, 2019 10 hours ago, Floydbuster said: The GFS shows a dynamic outflow setup over the Bahamas/Straits prior to Florida landfall. That's probably why the dramatic intensification. Or the model is on crack. Ya, more like the model is on Crack...especially this far out. Interesting to see how it all evolves though going forward??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seminole Posted September 10, 2019 Share Posted September 10, 2019 12z Euro picking up on what the GFS has been hinting at albeit much weaker and slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwxman Posted September 11, 2019 Share Posted September 11, 2019 LOL at the long range 6z GFS. Basically the entire east coast will be shut down after that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRSno Posted September 11, 2019 Share Posted September 11, 2019 19 hours ago, Seminole said: 12z Euro picking up on what the GFS has been hinting at albeit much weaker and slower. 0z looks much more GFS like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 11, 2019 Share Posted September 11, 2019 29 minutes ago, jjwxman said: LOL at the long range 6z GFS. Basically the entire east coast will be shut down after that one. The track is almost identical to Wilma until it gets past Florida. System would have quite the PRE as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 11, 2019 Share Posted September 11, 2019 36 minutes ago, jjwxman said: LOL at the long range 6z GFS. Basically the entire east coast will be shut down after that one. Maybe this is IT????? The End!! lol Sometimes the big ones shine a lil brighter out there in the distance... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 11, 2019 Share Posted September 11, 2019 5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Maybe this is IT????? The End!! lol Sometimes the big ones shine a lil brighter out there in the distance... It helps that the models aren't really developing the system until it reaches the islands and by then it's really far South and West for a recurve OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted September 11, 2019 Share Posted September 11, 2019 95L up to 60% on the 5 day 8:00 am NHC update. .ZCZC MIATWOAT ALLTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA Tropical Weather Outlook...CorrectedNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL800 AM EDT Wed Sep 11 2019 Delete word and correct number For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Widespread cloudiness and showers extending from the southeasternBahamas northward over the southwestern Atlantic for a fewhundred miles are associated with a surface trough of low pressure.Limited development of this system is anticipated today ortomorrow, however conditions are forecast to become a little morefavorable for development over the weekend, and a tropicaldepression could form as the disturbance moves slowly toward thewest-northwest across the Florida Straits or South Florida and overthe eastern Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of development, thisdisturbance could produce periods of locally heavy rainfall andgusty winds across the Bahamas through Thursday, and across Floridaduring the weekend.* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted September 11, 2019 Share Posted September 11, 2019 12z brings it right through the Bahamas including the islands that just got the eye of Dorian... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 11, 2019 Share Posted September 11, 2019 56 minutes ago, cptcatz said: 12z brings it right through the Bahamas including the islands that just got the eye of Dorian... Well, if there's an upside to that....it's very Weak. Sure it'll be a lot of rain perhaps...but a 992 is not much of a Cane.... I know, I know, it's the last thing that area needs. But it probably won't play out that way anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted September 11, 2019 Share Posted September 11, 2019 Is it me or does 95L look like it's getting better organized with every frame on satellite? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted September 11, 2019 Share Posted September 11, 2019 41 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Well, if there's an upside to that....it's very Weak. Sure it'll be a lot of rain perhaps...but a 992 is not much of a Cane.... I know, I know, it's the last thing that area needs. But it probably won't play out that way anyway. Dorian was also progged to be very weak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 11, 2019 Share Posted September 11, 2019 4 minutes ago, psv88 said: Dorian was also progged to be very weak Very True..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seminole Posted September 11, 2019 Share Posted September 11, 2019 36 minutes ago, cptcatz said: Is it me or does 95L look like it's getting better organized with every frame on satellite? https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/conus_band.php?sat=G16&band=GEOCOLOR&length=24 Sure seems that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 11, 2019 Share Posted September 11, 2019 47 minutes ago, cptcatz said: Is it me or does 95L look like it's getting better organized with every frame on satellite? That is a big area of disturbed weather for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 11, 2019 Share Posted September 11, 2019 Euro in the Southern Bahamas Day 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 11, 2019 Share Posted September 11, 2019 Things will change dramatically over the next few days. But what an ominous track/look on the day 10 Euro for the East coast with that deep trough digging in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 11, 2019 Share Posted September 11, 2019 Interesting to say the Least..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 11, 2019 Share Posted September 11, 2019 2 hours ago, cptcatz said: 12z brings it right through the Bahamas including the islands that just got the eye of Dorian... Most of Abaco Island and Grand Bahama are already destroyed. The only downside is that it could stop some of the recovery effort, but the damage is already done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted September 11, 2019 Share Posted September 11, 2019 36 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Things will change dramatically over the next few days. But what an ominous track/look on the day 10 Euro for the East coast with that deep trough digging in. Potential Gloria redux in the making. Long way to go though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted September 11, 2019 Share Posted September 11, 2019 40 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Things will change dramatically over the next few days. But what an ominous track/look on the day 10 Euro for the East coast with that deep trough digging in. Yeah, and take a look at what the EPS control run does with it past hour 240. Yipes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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