hazwoper Posted September 4, 2019 Share Posted September 4, 2019 12 hours ago, cptcatz said: Because it would bring catastrophic storm surge flooding into Chesapeake Bay, NYC Harbor, and Boston Harbor, while bringing flooding rains and torrential winds to Washington, Baltimore, NJ, NYC, and Boston. Nope. A storm slamming perpendicular into the east coast at any one major city location would be the worst possible track (i.e.straight into the Ches. bay, SNJ/Del Bay, LI, etc.) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted September 4, 2019 Share Posted September 4, 2019 Last two GFS runs (6z and 12z) now show it fizzling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LandofLincoln Posted September 4, 2019 Share Posted September 4, 2019 46 minutes ago, cptcatz said: Last two GFS runs (6z and 12z) now show it fizzling. And the Euro hasn't been showing it for a few runs now. Looking less and less likely with each run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted September 5, 2019 Share Posted September 5, 2019 6 hours ago, cptcatz said: Last two GFS runs (6z and 12z) now show it fizzling. Shocker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 5, 2019 Share Posted September 5, 2019 "Wimpy" Fernand has dumped 10" IMBY and counting. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted September 5, 2019 Share Posted September 5, 2019 9 hours ago, wxmx said: "Wimpy" Fernand has dumped 10" IMBY and counting. LOL Wow! That storm is almost an afterthought with Dorian literally getting all the attention. Hopefully you don't have any damage. How much more you expecting. Have to ask considering it's not being talked about Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 5, 2019 Share Posted September 5, 2019 11 minutes ago, BombsAway1288 said: LOL Wow! That storm is almost an afterthought with Dorian literally getting all the attention. Hopefully you don't have any damage. How much more you expecting. Have to ask considering it's not being talked about 24 hours rainfall, as reported near the airport, 507mm (20 inches)... Slight rain at the moment, and not big accumulations are expected, although the next few 2-3 days we are still expecting precipitation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anthony96 Posted September 6, 2019 Share Posted September 6, 2019 What a hurricane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted September 6, 2019 Share Posted September 6, 2019 20 minutes ago, Anthony96 said: What a hurricane That's what the're saying in the Bahama's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 6, 2019 Share Posted September 6, 2019 On 9/4/2019 at 1:35 PM, cptcatz said: Last two GFS runs (6z and 12z) now show it fizzling. Its back on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 6, 2019 Share Posted September 6, 2019 3 hours ago, Snow88 said: Its back on the GFS NHC gave it a 70% chance of development within 5 days. Spaghetti models are pretty locked into the idea of slow development and a West track. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted September 6, 2019 Share Posted September 6, 2019 13 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: NHC gave it a 70% chance of development within 5 days. Spaghetti models are pretty locked into the idea of slow development and a West track. If it can stick together and make its way into the Caribbean Sea or Gulf of Mexico, it could have the potential to really ramp up. I don't think Dorian caused any upwelling in those areas so the water should be prime for intensification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LandofLincoln Posted September 6, 2019 Share Posted September 6, 2019 Heading to Antigua next Tuesday through Monday the following week. Have to say I'm rooting against this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kyle-1 Posted September 6, 2019 Share Posted September 6, 2019 12z ECMWF still doesn't show development for 94L. Considering how poorly it did with Dorian, increasing ensemble support, combined with it being peak season, makes me doubt that scenario. 06z/12z GFS picked it up again, but 18z has dropped it in favor of the wave immediately behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted September 6, 2019 Share Posted September 6, 2019 7 hours ago, LandofLincoln said: Heading to Antigua next Tuesday through Monday the following week. Have to say I'm rooting against this one. don't be a buzzkill Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LandofLincoln Posted September 6, 2019 Share Posted September 6, 2019 5 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said: don't be a buzzkill Hey I’m fine with the 18z GFS solution, because I’ll be out of the area by then. But I’d rather not see my vacation have to be ended early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted September 7, 2019 Share Posted September 7, 2019 The GFS doesn't know what to do with this thing. Keeps stalling it/slowing it down north of the Turks though. Dangerous area if it did end up there. Whats the Euro have? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted September 7, 2019 Share Posted September 7, 2019 5 hours ago, BombsAway1288 said: The GFS doesn't know what to do with this thing. Keeps stalling it/slowing it down north of the Turks though. Dangerous area if it did end up there. Whats the Euro have? It looks like it stalls 94L but then kinda merges it with the wave behind it which then develops it into a nice storm but keeps it out to sea. Will be interesting to see how it plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted September 7, 2019 Share Posted September 7, 2019 Now the 12z's Euro and GFS are in general agreement with a storm developing just north of Puerto Rico. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 8, 2019 Share Posted September 8, 2019 Though 94L comes and goes with modeling development, and should continue getting watched, it is the following wave exiting the west African coast I believe will be our first CV longtracker with potential impacts. Gabrielle is technically a CV long tracker. At any rate, the new tropical wave should remain southerly in track through the MDR and strong signals of ridging next week may even drive it through the Lesser Antilles as a Caribbean runner. It already has a broad closed low and should detach itself from the ITCZ / monsoonal trough not too long after it emerges. This is way in advance and obviously subject to change, but it just has that look as well as decent low-level versus upper-level modeling support over the next 5-7 days. We are entering the height of the Cape Verde season climatological speaking, but you still have to have a favorable MDR. It looks like September into October will remain active. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted September 8, 2019 Share Posted September 8, 2019 The last two GFS runs now show the wave behind 94L becoming Dorian 2.0... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 8, 2019 Share Posted September 8, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted September 8, 2019 Share Posted September 8, 2019 At the end of the run the GFS wants to take out the rest of the Bahamas! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 8, 2019 Share Posted September 8, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aperson Posted September 8, 2019 Share Posted September 8, 2019 6 hours ago, Windspeed said: I feel like Ventrice busts a lot but I thought his posts on this domain were really interesting, especially given the timing and infrequency of SHem SSW events: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted September 9, 2019 Author Share Posted September 9, 2019 Southern Hemisphere stratosphere doesn't mean much I think except for general "warming-neutralizing". 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 9, 2019 Share Posted September 9, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 9, 2019 Share Posted September 9, 2019 12z GFS still develops 94L as the system approaches the lesser Antilles, very close to where Dorian formed. The track is then close to Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 9, 2019 Share Posted September 9, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 9, 2019 Share Posted September 9, 2019 12z EURO would like to know about these tropical systems you are talking about... finally develops a weak system Days 9 and 10... but it's nothing like the 12z GFS -- not even close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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