2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[yoda]

This is cool... from Cowan

https://mobile.twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1187423031238561793

 

[NavarreDon]

Interesting solution by the 18Z GFS hours 30-42!


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[NavarreDon]

97L gets it cherry on the 8:00pm.




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[yoda]

3 minutes ago, NavarreDon said:

97L gets it cherry on the 8:00pm.




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Still no well defined center though still per the 8pm TWO

[Hurricane Agnes]

Latest (8 am) on this disturbance, and it is expected to get caught up in the front that will be moving across the central U.S. -

Quote

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Oct 25 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Satellite imagery indicates that the circulation of the low
pressure system over the western Gulf of Mexico is becoming
better defined, and that the associated shower and thunderstorm
activity continues to show signs of organization.  It appears likely
that a short-lived tropical cyclone will form later today.  However,
the system is forecast to merge with a cold front and become
post-tropical tonight over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico.
Regardless of development, gale-force winds are expected behind the
cold front over the western Gulf of Mexico today and Saturday. For
more information, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National
Weather Service.  An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the system later today, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

2. Shower activity has increased this morning near the center of a
large non-tropical low centered a few hundred miles southwest of
the western Azores.  Some additional development of this system is
possible during the next couple of days as it moves generally
east-northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

Forecaster Beven

 

 

 

Quick Lin

With all that convection, it'll certainly be a wet system.  The temps in the GOM are still pretty warm.

[NavarreDon]

Advisories forthcoming

Tropical Weather Discussion
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
945 AM EDT Fri Oct 25 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special outlook issued to update discussion of systems in the Gulf
of Mexico and southwest of the Azores.

1. Updated: Visible satellite imagery and surface observations indicate
that a tropical cyclone is forming in the western Gulf of Mexico,
and advisories will be initiated on this system later this morning.
The system is forecast to merge with a cold front and become post-
tropical tonight over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Gale-force
winds are expected behind the cold front over the western Gulf of
Mexico today and Saturday. For more information, see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. An Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the
system later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.


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[yoda]

Should be a short lived TC before it becomes post-tropical in about 12 hours lol

[yoda]

In addition... looks like there could also be another short-lived TC out by the Azores as well per the updated TWO:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
945 AM EDT Fri Oct 25 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special outlook issued to update discussion of systems in the Gulf
of Mexico and southwest of the Azores.

2. Updated: Recent satellite derived winds indicate that the small
non-tropical low centered a few hundred miles southwest of the
western Azores is producing tropical-storm-force winds near the
center. The thunderstorm activity is becoming better organized and
if this trend continues a tropical or subtropical cyclone could form
later today. The low is forecast to move toward the east-northeast
for the next day or so and interests in the Azores should monitor
the progress of this system. For more information, see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

Forecaster Avila

[Hurricane Agnes]

TD-17 is born -

Quote

000
WTNT32 KNHC 251431
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Seventeen Advisory Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172019
1000 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 2019

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A GALE-FORCE POST-TROPICAL LOW TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.6N 94.4W
ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM SSW OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal tropical cyclone watches or warnings in
effect.

Please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service and products from local National Weather Service forecast
offices for information on the non-tropical watches and warnings
associated with this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Seventeen was located near latitude 25.6 North, longitude 94.4 West.
The depression is moving toward the north near 16 mph (26 km/h).  A
motion toward the north-northeast at a faster forward speed is
expected this afternoon through Sunday.  On the forecast track, the
center of the cyclone should move across the northwestern Gulf of
Mexico this afternoon and then move over the northern Gulf coast
tonight or Saturday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is expected today, and the depression could
become a tropical storm this afternoon.  The cyclone is then
expected to merge with a cold front and become a post-tropical low
with gale-force winds tonight before the center reaches the Gulf
coast.  An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled
to investigate the depression this afternoon.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Gale-force winds associated with this system should spread
over portions of the northern Gulf coast tonight and Saturday
morning.

RAINFALL: The depression and rainfall ahead of the system along and
north of the frontal boundary across the Central Gulf coast is
expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches
with maximum totals of 8 inches across the Central Gulf coast into
the Lower Mississippi Valley through Saturday morning.  These rains
may produce flash flooding across the Central Gulf coast into the
Lower Mississippi Valley.

COASTAL FLOODING: Above-normal tides and associated coastal
flooding are possible across portions of the northern Gulf coast.
Please see products from local National Weather Service forecast
offices for additional information.

TORNADOES:  A couple tornadoes are possible through tonight across
southeast portions of Louisiana and Mississippi into southwest
Alabama.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

Quote

000
WTNT42 KNHC 251432
TCDAT2

Tropical Depression Seventeen Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172019
1000 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 2019

Satellite imagery indicates that the low pressure system in the
western Gulf of Mexico has developed a well-defined circulation.
In addition, a cluster of strong convection is located near and to
the northeast of the low-level center.  Thus, advisories are being
initiated on Tropical Depression Seventeen.  The initial intensity
is set at 30 kt, and it is possible based on last night's
scatterometer data that this is conservative.

A deep-layer baroclinic trough over the southern Plains states
should steer the cyclone north-northeastward with an increase in
forward speed during the next couple of days, with the center
crossing the northern Gulf coast tonight or Saturday morning.  The
track guidance is in good agreement, and the forecast track lies
close to the various consensus models.

A surface cold front associated with the baroclinic trough is
quickly approaching the center of the depression, and the tropical
cyclone is expected to merge with the front during the next 12 h.
Based on this, the cyclone is expected to become a gale-force
post-tropical low before it reaches the northern Gulf coast.  The
low should weaken after landfall, with dissipation expected just
after 48 h.  There is a chance that the system could briefly become
a tropical storm this afternoon before it merges with the cold
front.  However, even if this occurs it will make little difference
to the impacts on the northern Gulf coast.

Key messages:

1. Since depression is expected to merge with a cold front and
become post-tropical by tonight, hazards related to wind, rainfall
and coastal flooding will be covered by products issued by local
National Weather Service forecast offices, available at weather.gov


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/1500Z 25.6N  94.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  26/0000Z 28.2N  93.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  26/1200Z 32.6N  91.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  27/0000Z 38.1N  89.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  27/1200Z 43.2N  85.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  28/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

You can see a bit of the naked swirl in the SW part of the blob of convection.

[hawkeye_wx]

The system out by the Azores seems to be a pretty clear tropical cyclone.

[Windspeed]

Increasingly warm core now and has eye-like feature. This should be upgraded to a named storm at least.

[NorthHillsWx]

Looks like another funky tropical/subtropical named storm in the Atlantic is upcoming. The system in the far Northern Atlantic certainly seems to be producing storms around the center and has at least a subtropical appearance now. NHC upgraded it to 50% this morning. Given the recent increase in convection and the fact it's already sporting 45 kt wind I'd expect an upgrade to another named system this evening, as long as recent trends continue.

[yoda]

4 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Looks like another funky tropical/subtropical named storm in the Atlantic is upcoming. The system in the far Northern Atlantic certainly seems to be producing storms around the center and has at least a subtropical appearance now. NHC upgraded it to 50% this morning. Given the recent increase in convection and the fact it's already sporting 45 kt wind I'd expect an upgrade to another named system this evening, as long as recent trends continue.

You are correct.  NHC will begin advisories on STS Rebekah at 5pm

[NavarreDon]

On 11/2/2019 at 9:35 PM, WxWatcher007 said:

It was a good run with a lot of tracking. See y’all next season.

Hold on!!!

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 AM EST Tue Nov 19 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad area of low pressure located about 250 miles northeast of
the northern Leeward Islands is gradually becoming better organized
and the associated shower and thunderstorm activity has been
developing closer to the center since yesterday. If this trend
continues, then a tropical or subtropical depression or storm could
form in the next day or so while the system moves northwestward and
then northward over the open Atlantic. The low is forecast to
interact with a frontal system by midweek and further development is
unlikely after that time. For more information, see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.