Maestrobjwa Posted September 16, 2019 Share Posted September 16, 2019 2 hours ago, cptcatz said: Today's 12z Euro ends with 97L getting blocked just northeast of the Bahamas, even moving back south in the last frame. And then it has the next wave getting pretty strong way out in the Atlantic. Not sure what you people are saying about questioning the activity... it looks like wave after wave is developing now. My apologies...It seemed that some thought it the setup favored more activity getting closer to the coast. Could've misread that, though...sorry for derailing the thread. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted September 16, 2019 Share Posted September 16, 2019 1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said: My apologies...It seemed that some thought it the setup favored more activity getting closer to the coast. Could've misread that, though...sorry for derailing the thread. I'm still kind of new to tropical weather tracking, but is it even possible to predict activity getting closer to the coast? I thought actual tracks of the storms were more luck as the storm played out rather than being able to predict well weeks or months in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 17, 2019 Share Posted September 17, 2019 Euro continues to show an active pattern ahead in the Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 17, 2019 Share Posted September 17, 2019 5 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: 98L looks decent... I don't think it will have enough time to develop into a TD before it moves inland later tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 17, 2019 Share Posted September 17, 2019 Just now, WxWatcher007 said: I haven’t followed closely but it looks like there’s persistent convection and a low level center that formed. Proximity to land is an issue but it certainly looks close to me. NHC only has a yellow tag on it... 30% before "landfall" late tonight... Maybe it will be reviewed after the season but I think its too late This was the NHC 8am disco on it: 2. Shower activity associated with a broad area of low pressure located over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico near the central Texas coast has changed little in organization. However, some slight development is still possible before the system moves inland along the northwestern Gulf coast later tonight or early Wednesday. Regardless of development, this disturbance is expected to produce areas of very heavy rainfall and possible flash flooding along the coastal regions of southwestern Louisiana and central and upper Texas tonight and Wednesday, and over eastern Texas and western Louisiana on Thursday. For additional information, see products issued by your local weather forecast office and the Weather Prediction Center. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 17, 2019 Share Posted September 17, 2019 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: On the other hand, it’s very close to land. Idk. Couldn't it conceivably continue to organize over land for a bit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 17, 2019 Share Posted September 17, 2019 50 minutes ago, yoda said: I don't think it will have enough time to develop into a TD before it moves inland later tonight They should just name it for media purposes. It’s way easier for some of these rip and readers on air to say Jerry for the next two weeks than Imelda. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted September 17, 2019 Share Posted September 17, 2019 Looks like we have a TD on the Texas coast, per Houston radar. Not much time till it moves ashore which is pretty lucky as it is organizing rather quickly. If it was slightly further offshore I'd say a 2007 Humberto-like system could be in the cards, very similar organization and location Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted September 17, 2019 Share Posted September 17, 2019 That system will cause severe flooding in Houston, it appears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted September 17, 2019 Share Posted September 17, 2019 Just like that, NHC has designated a TD. Expected to become a storm shortly. Pretty interesting to watch the rapid organization over the last 12 hours. Big rain-maker for Texas 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 17, 2019 Share Posted September 17, 2019 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eleven Special Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112019 1200 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS NEAR THE TEXAS COAST... ...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING... SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CDT...1700 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.7N 95.4W ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM SSW OF FREEPORT TEXAS ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SW OF GALVESTON TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the coast of Texas from Sargent to Port Bolivar. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Sargent to Port Bolivar A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next few hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 PM CDT (1700 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven was located near latitude 28.7 North, longitude 95.4 West. The depression is moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through early Wednesday. A north-northwestward motion is expected Wednesday night and Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of the depression will move inland over the Upper Texas coast later today, and move farther inland tonight and Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible before the center moves onshore. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce total rainfall accumulation of 5 to 10 inches with isolated maximum of 15 inches across the upper coastal region of Texas into far southwest Louisiana through Thursday. This rainfall may produce life- threatening flash floods. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area this afternoon and evening. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 17, 2019 Share Posted September 17, 2019 And just like that, it has been upgraded to TS Imelda. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 17, 2019 Share Posted September 17, 2019 There are already TS force sustained winds being observed. I suspect this may be the shortest classified TD on record as they may upgrade momentarily. lol...Somebody want to do the honors and make a thread? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted September 17, 2019 Share Posted September 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, Windspeed said: There are already TS force sustained winds being observed. I suspect this may be the shortest classified TD on record as they may upgrade momentarily. lol... Somebody want to do the honors and make a thread? And we have TS Imelda at 1pm CDT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 17, 2019 Share Posted September 17, 2019 Just now, hlcater said: And we have TS Imelda at 1pm CDT. And landfall too? Tropical Storm Imelda Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112019 1245 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019 ...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM IMELDA... Surface observations indicate that the depression has strengthened as it nears the coast and has become Tropical Storm Imelda, with maximum sustained winds near 40 mph (65 km/h). A National Ocean Service observing site at Freeport, Texas, recently reported a sustained wind of 40 mph (65 km/h) and a wind gust of 47 mph (76 km/h). SUMMARY OF 1245 PM CDT...1745 UTC...INFORMATION --------------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.9N 95.3W ABOUT 0 MI...0 KM S OF FREEPORT TEXAS ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM SW OF GALVESTON TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES $$ Forecaster Brennan/Brown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted September 17, 2019 Share Posted September 17, 2019 Whew, today certainly became a fun day on the tropical front! Rapidly forming TS, New TD on it's way to becoming a hurricane, and Humberto growing and making it's push to a major while threatening Bermuda! Also plenty of development in the Eastern Pacific... It's like it's mid-September or something! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 17, 2019 Share Posted September 17, 2019 Active times ahead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted September 17, 2019 Share Posted September 17, 2019 Mid September and a big ole juicy CCKW...name a more iconic duo 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted September 18, 2019 Share Posted September 18, 2019 By all accounts, things are gonna be very active in the next few weeks. We'll see if Karen and Lorenzo make their way off Africa before that wave season shuts down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted September 18, 2019 Share Posted September 18, 2019 5 minutes ago, Floydbuster said: By all accounts, things are gonna be very active in the next few weeks. We'll see if Karen and Lorenzo make their way off Africa before that wave season shuts down. According to the last few Euro runs, it has Karen forming off the coast of Africa and getting huge in the mid-Atlantic and Lorenzo forming in the southeast Caribbean, both within the next week or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted September 18, 2019 Share Posted September 18, 2019 23 minutes ago, Floydbuster said: By all accounts, things are gonna be very active in the next few weeks. We'll see if Karen and Lorenzo make their way off Africa before that wave season shuts down. From the Meteosat it's looking like the wave train is full steam ahead. There are several strong and a couple weaker ones lined up like a bowling ball return. We'll see how it pans out, but with the activity over equatorial Africa and the incoming Kelvin Wave it could get very very interesting. Seems #10 and the next wave models have are going to have some decent SAL to fight off so we shall watch the battle begin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 20, 2019 Share Posted September 20, 2019 99L is looking pretty juicy this morning. It's really far South in the MDR but NHC gave it 20/30% chance of development over the next 2/5 days. The 06z GFS actually has some development followed by an eventual landfall near the Venezuela, Guyana border. The Euro pretty much has this following Jerry, developing both this system and the one behind it into powerful hurricanes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 20, 2019 Share Posted September 20, 2019 31 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: 99L is looking pretty juicy this morning. It's really far South in the MDR but NHC gave it 20/30% chance of development over the next 2/5 days. The 06z GFS actually has some development followed by an eventual landfall near the Venezuela, Guyana border. The Euro pretty much has this following Jerry, developing both this system and the one behind it into powerful hurricanes. Also because the upper air environment and upper level winds are forecast to become less conducive for development once the wave gets to near the Caribbean Sea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted September 20, 2019 Share Posted September 20, 2019 As per comments above on the active pattern over equatorial Africa, this is the first time I recall the NHC calling attention to a wave actually still over land in Africa, although I'll admit I don't look at this graphic every day. Do others recall seeing a wave over Africa being evaluated like this? NHC has a 70% chance of formation over the next 5 days, which is also quite high for a system that is over land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted September 20, 2019 Share Posted September 20, 2019 If I recall, it happened with the wave that became Irma two years ago, but that wasn't quite as deep into Africa when NHC first mentioned it. As per comments above on the active pattern over equatorial Africa, this is the first time I recall the NHC calling attention to a wave actually still over land in Africa, although I'll admit I don't look at this graphic every day. Do others recall seeing a wave over Africa being evaluated like this? NHC has a 70% chance of formation over the next 5 days, which is also quite high for a system that is over land. Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 21, 2019 Share Posted September 21, 2019 11 hours ago, RU848789 said: As per comments above on the active pattern over equatorial Africa, this is the first time I recall the NHC calling attention to a wave actually still over land in Africa, although I'll admit I don't look at this graphic every day. Do others recall seeing a wave over Africa being evaluated like this? NHC has a 70% chance of formation over the next 5 days, which is also quite high for a system that is over land. Here's the update on that map (with the downgrade of Jerry) - Looks like they plan to look at that latest system (Windward Islands one) later today (with another recon planned for tomorrow) - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD.shtml Quote 000 NOUS42 KNHC 201821 REPRPD WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL. 0220 PM EDT FRI 20 SEPTEMBER 2019 SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD) VALID 21/1100Z TO 22/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2019 TCPOD NUMBER.....19-115 CORRECTION I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. HURRICANE JERRY FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 74 A. 22/1200Z B. AFXXX 0910A JERRY C. 22/1000Z D. 23.6N 68.0W E. 22/1130Z TO 22/1500Z F. SFC TO 15,000 FT 2. SUSPECT AREA (SE OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS) FLIGHT ONE - NOAA 42 FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 76 A. 21/1800Z A. 22/1130Z,1730Z B. NOAA2 01DDA INVEST B. AFXXX 0112A CYCLONE C. 21/1430Z C. 22/0915Z D. 10.0N 56.0W D. 11.5N 60.0W E. 21/1730Z TO 21/2130Z E. 22/1100Z TO 22/1730Z F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 21, 2019 Share Posted September 21, 2019 The models are showing all the interests in the Atlantic following each other staying way ots in the Atlantic. The coast might be safe for now but we still have to watch homegrown storms especially in October Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 21, 2019 Share Posted September 21, 2019 Likewise NCEP forecasts a strong heat ridge over the eastern CONUS the remainder of the month into Oct. Don't just assume modeling will follow suite with every MDR to Caribbean system from here on out. It only takes one getting missed by a weakness and slipping under an ECONUS ridge at the right time to end up as far west as the Gulf. Ridge and trough interactions are dynamic, not held within stasis. Even looking at current global modeling, a case in point. Look at the location of fantasy hurricane moving under the ridge into an amped CONUS pattern. That would spell trouble: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted September 21, 2019 Share Posted September 21, 2019 The 12z Euro has an interesting development of current 99L. It has it going north through the eastern Caribbean and then turning to the southwest before meandering a little. This could be an interesting one to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted September 21, 2019 Share Posted September 21, 2019 18Z GFS has a solution a bit like the 12Z Euro. System comes north and then gets stuck before being pushed back west or southwest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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