2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[NavarreDon]

NHC ups 5 day to 40%

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5

 

[NavarreDon]

Saw this from the 12Z euro....




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[Amped]

 

Looks kind of lopsided.   Probably good for heavy rains and a couple  of weak tornadoes. Not good considering how much rain they've had in the MS Valley.  TS Lee 2011 comes to mind as an analog. This seems to be moving a little faster though.

[Floydbuster]

Please stay west! I have a Myrtle Beach vacation this upcoming weekend

[MattPetrulli]

00z Euro shifting west and bringing into Beaumont, TX area with a lot of rain and as a strong TS.

[cheese007]

3 hours ago, MattPetrulli said:

00z Euro shifting west and bringing into Beaumont, TX area with a lot of rain and as a strong TS.

Odds of develooment up to 70%

[NavarreDon]

8:00 am EDT NHC

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Jul 8 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A trough of low pressure located over central Georgia is forecast to
move southward toward the northeastern Gulf of Mexico, where a broad
area of low pressure is expected to form in a couple of days.  Some
gradual development is possible thereafter and a tropical depression
is likely to form by the end of the week while the low meanders near
the northern Gulf Coast.  Regardless of development, this system has
the potential to produce heavy rainfall along portions of the
northern and eastern U.S. Gulf Coast later this week.  For more
information about the rainfall threat, please see products issued by
your local weather forecast office and the NOAA Weather Prediction
Center.  Interests along the northern Gulf Coast and the Florida
peninsula should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Forecaster Stewart

[hlcater]

Random question here, does anyone know if the FV3 is ocean coupled?

[Jackstraw]

21 hours ago, hlcater said:

Random question here, does anyone know if the FV3 is ocean coupled?

From its performance up around our area I'm wondering if it's atmosphere coupled lol.

[NavarreDon]

Anyone notice the 18Z GFS around hour 240ish?


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[Jackstraw]

16 hours ago, NavarreDon said:

Anyone notice the 18Z GFS around hour 240ish?


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"TWA 517, do you want to report a UFO?"   Kidding.  There are some hints of a trough in the gulf around that time frame on some of the models so we'll see if that blip pops back up.

[janetjanet998]

models drive a front into the gulf....got to watch the tail end this time of year

euro shows hints of this 

[MattPetrulli]

4 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said:

models drive a front into the gulf....got to watch the tail end this time of year

euro shows hints of this 

Gulf should rebound rather quickly too, if it hasn't already. Gotta watch.

[janetjanet998]

42 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said:

Gulf should rebound rather quickly too, if it hasn't already. Gotta watch.

and the river at NOLA will be above 15 feet well into August.... 

they just announced today they are keeping the spillway up north open longer (was going to close this week)

and up north isn't exactly dry (not hugely wet) as a front moves from north to south dumping rain in the watershed..

plus once they close the spillway... about 125,000 cfs of extra water will flow downstream ..at 16 feet the flow is 1,250,000 bfs at NOLA

so the closing of the spillway will off set some any reduction of flow from up  north

to sum up: NOLA still at risk from storm surge going up river

The Bonnet Carre Spillway will have to remain open longer than officials were hoping for as rainwater from once Hurricane Barry makes it’s way down the Mississippi River.

Corps of Engineers spokesperson Ricky Boyett says before they can close the Spillway, the river must drop to 21 feet at the structure, but that’s just not happening…

“Right now what we are really waiting on is for the rain to finish. As Barry moves up the valley, it’s putting more rain in the river and ultimately that rain has to come down to us.”

21 feet at the Spillway would put the river around 16 feet in New Orleans.

Boyett says they aren’t concerned that the additional water will put any of the levee system in danger.

“We’re not seeing a rise, what we’re seeing is an extended fall. It’s going to level out for about a week or so, and then we will start to see a slow fall.”

https://kpel965.com/bonnet-carre-to-remain-open/

[Windspeed]

Gulf should rebound rather quickly too, if it hasn't already. Gotta watch.

Most if not all of the upwelling occurred in the central and NW GOM. The eastern GOM is still at or above normal. Air temps are running in the mid-to-upper 90s through the end of the month regardless. You are correct in that it won't take very long for the western half of the GOM to rebound for August.

[Windspeed]

[MattPetrulli]

5 hours ago, Windspeed said:

8 hours ago, MattPetrulli said:

Gulf should rebound rather quickly too, if it hasn't already. Gotta watch.

Most if not all of the upwelling occurred in the central and NW GOM. The eastern GOM is still at or above normal. Air temps are running in the mid-to-upper 90s through the end of the month regardless. You are correct in that it won't take very long for the western half of the GOM to rebound for August.

Even right now it's still warm enough for tropical systems

[Amped]

The Warm Eddy in the gulf looks like it's in a similar spot to 2005 fwiw.

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

9 hours ago, Amped said:

The Warm Eddy in the gulf looks like it's in a similar spot to 2005 fwiw.

I had a feeling we could have a big hit this year. It will be hard though with El Nino conditions present, and only 12-13 named storms looking likely. 

[MattPetrulli]

Looks like most tropical activity is done for the month unless we get quick development close to home. Wave train should be in business towards August, however.

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

On ‎7‎/‎19‎/‎2019 at 9:31 AM, MattPetrulli said:

Looks like most tropical activity is done for the month unless we get quick development close to home. Wave train should be in business towards August, however.

There is a 700mb vort northwest of Puerto Rico and north of Hispaniola by about 100-140 miles, there is also a surface low developing presently, with a low-level circulation developing.  There is a strong hint of this occurring by watching the low-level cumulus field.

[jbenedet]

Think there’s a 50/50 chance we see a lemon over the north central Gulf as this UL trough digs south over the next 24 hrs. Seems to be increasing model support for a weak surface low, collocated with deep convection near LA, tracking east, pretty close to the coast. Little chance this has the environment or time to develop into something more meaningful. Just something to watch. 

[NavarreDon]

19 hours ago, jbenedet said:

Think there’s a 50/50 chance we see a lemon over the north central Gulf as this UL trough digs south over the next 24 hrs. Seems to be increasing model support for a weak surface low, collocated with deep convection near LA, tracking east, pretty close to the coast. Little chance this has the environment or time to develop into something more meaningful. Just something to watch. 

Nice call out on this. MOB talks about it in their morning short term:

 

.SHORT TERM /Wednesday Through Thursday night/...A large upper
trof extending from the eastern states into the north central Gulf
steadily weakens during the period while an upper high remains
anchored over the 4 Corners region. Another upper ridge over the
western Atlantic gradually begins to build into the eastern Gulf
meanwhile as the upper trof weakens. At the beginning of the
period, a cold front will be located just off the mid Atlantic
coast, across northern Florida, and extending westward across the
northern Gulf. The frontal boundary lingers generally in place
through Thursday night and gradually weakens. That said, there is
the potential for a surface low to develop somewhere along the
weakening frontal boundary, and this development would occur in a
rather weakly sheared environment (generally <10 knots 1000-400
mb). While nearly all guidance shows no significant development
of a surface low along the boundary, weak boundaries like this
that stall in the Gulf within a weakly sheared environment have
later on sometimes spawned tropical systems. For that reason, the
National Hurricane Center has introduced a 20 percent chance of
tropical cyclone development mainly within the time period
beginning Thursday and lasting into Saturday. Note that this
potential system is not associated with Tropical Depression Three,
currently located between the Bahamas and the Florida peninsula,
which is expected to meanwhile drift northward. For the forecast,
have gone with mostly dry conditions through the period except for
small pops near the coast and will need to closely monitor for
the possibility of a system developing in the Gulf and how this
might affect the area. Highs on Wednesday will be mostly in the
upper 80s then around 90 on Thursday. Lows Wednesday night range
from the mid 60s inland to around 70 at the coast, with a modest
warming trend for Thursday night when lows range from the mid 60s
well inland to the lower 70s closer to the coast. A low risk of
rip currents is expected through the period. /29

[NavarreDon]

NHC down to 10% on 48hr and 5 day due to dry air & shear......sounds familiar for the N Gulf!


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[MattPetrulli]

 

 

[Windspeed]

The one very deep wave over interior Africa already has a decent surface low in conjunction to an abundant moisture envelope. The CCKW should still be in place when it emerges into the Atlantic MDR for the first week of August, so we'll have something to watch. However, keep in mind that Azores 500 mb ridging is still kicking in overdrive right now. Though upper level Westerlies have relaxed out of the W. Atl and Caribbean, deep MDR development is still questionable until strong Easterly mid-level flow can relax somewhat. Easterly shear is still a deterrent and it easing will allow SAL to relax, amplifying moisture and convective instability out of the southern ITCZ.

[MattPetrulli]

A number of 06z GEFS ensembles develop this wave in the Bahamas and recurve it.

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

11 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Figured it was a matter of time before we got the lemon. Convection looks robust today. We'll see how it holds up as it runs into that ribbon of shear and dry air to the northwest. 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Jul 28 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A persistent area of cloudiness and thunderstorms located over the
eastern Caribbean Sea is associated with a tropical wave. This
disturbance is expected to move west-northwestward to northwestward
across the north-central Caribbean Sea during the next few days,
producing locally heavy rainfall and possibly some flooding across
Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. Little development of the disturbance is
expected due to interaction with land.  However, the system is
forecast to emerge over the Straits of Florida by the end of the
week where environmental conditions could be a little more conducive
for development to occur.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Stewart

WxWatcher, I don't think the wave is running into the shear, there is a large upper-level anticyclone over the wave axis and area of highest vorticity at the surface.  This upper-level anticyclone will push and prevent the shear from interfering with the wave and its potential development.  Satellite imagery suggests there is a surface trough or area of convergence in the low levels that are developing under the convection.  Also, our tropical wave entering the Atlantic Ocean from the west African coastline is showing tremendous signs of a surface low present and it is spinning already with deep convection.  Could see two tropical storms develop this upcoming work week.  The eastern Atlantic Ocean tropical wave could be a long term threat to the Eastern USA.

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

We have invest-95L now.  It is the wave in the Eastern Caribbean Sea.

[MattPetrulli]

11 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

WxWatcher, I don't think the wave is running into the shear, there is a large upper-level anticyclone over the wave axis and area of highest vorticity at the surface.  This upper-level anticyclone will push and prevent the shear from interfering with the wave and its potential development.  Satellite imagery suggests there is a surface trough or area of convergence in the low levels that are developing under the convection.  Also, our tropical wave entering the Atlantic Ocean from the west African coastline is showing tremendous signs of a surface low present and it is spinning already with deep convection.  Could see two tropical storms develop this upcoming work week.  The eastern Atlantic Ocean tropical wave could be a long term threat to the Eastern USA.

Very strong area of shear+land interference