2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Look what showed up, +SST anomalies on the STJ part of both sides of North America, like we had last year. (I wonder if it will be a similar season of hits.)

[ncforecaster89]

For me, we’re still too far out in time to even provide a reasonable best educated guess regarding what may be in store for the upcoming season.  Come June 1, we’ll have a much better idea of where we stand relative to the state of the important atmospheric and oceanic indicators, and their likely influence on the peak months of the 2019 season.  

As such, thought I’d share a few interesting continental USA hurricane landfall statistics (dating back to 1851) that are relative to the 2019 season.

1) There have been at least one major hurricane landfall, for three consecutive years/seasons, on 5 different occasions.  These periods are 1854-1856, 1898-1900, 1915-1919, 1947-1950, and 1957-1961.

2) There have been at least one category 4 or greater landfall, in three consecutive seasons, on two different occasions.  These are the periods of 1947-1950 & 1959-1961.

In addition, the 1957 and 1958 seasons each had a hurricane that struck the continental USA as a borderline category three/four hurricane; Audrey in 1957 as a direct landfall and Helene in 1958 as a powerful Cat 4 hurricane that hit the NC coastline with 110 kt maximum sustained winds...while remaining just offshore.  

3) Each of the two periods, of at least 3 consecutive years with a category four hurricane landfall, had at least one make landfall somewhere on the east coast of the USA.

The Big Question:  Will the 2019 Atlantic basin hurricane season produce the continental USA hurricane landfalls required to join, any or all of, the 3 year periods listed above?

[Stormfly]

I'll take Hazel redux for $1000, Alex.

[Windspeed]

Dr. Phil Klotzbach @ CSU has introduced the following website to house and track seasonal forecasts from private and public entities:

 

http://seasonalhurricanepredictions.bsc.es/

 

 

[yoda]

STS Andrea has formed

[yoda]

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
550 PM EDT Mon May 20 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that
the low pressure system located several hundred miles southwest of
Bermuda has developed a well-defined center with maximum sustained
winds of about 40 mph.  A special advisory will be issued on
Subtropical Storm Andrea by 6:30 PM EDT or 2230 UTC.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.

Forecaster Zelinsky/Cangialosi

[downeastnc]

This makes this the 5th season in a row with a named STS or TS before June 1

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

2 hours ago, downeastnc said:

This makes this the 5th season in a row with a named STS or TS before June 1

All of which wouldn’t have been named pre satellite era. Regardless it’s an interesting trend when you include the early satellite era. Increasing SS temps should continue the earlier starts to the season. Eventually we could see seasons similar to the Wpac which essentially run year round.

[Yanksfan]

On 5/21/2019 at 11:34 AM, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

All of which wouldn’t have been named pre satellite era. Regardless it’s an interesting trend when you include the early satellite era. Increasing SS temps should continue the earlier starts to the season. Eventually we could see seasons similar to the Wpac which essentially run year round.

I agree. With the Changing climate, pre June 1st named storms could very well become the norm. I can envision seeing the NHC start the season on May1st in the not so distant future.

[Windspeed]

I agree. With the Changing climate, pre June 1st named storms could very well become the norm. I can envision seeing the NHC start the season on May1st in the not so distant future.

May storms are still infrequent. We have seen named subtropical and purely tropical systems in December as well. But the average still favors June through November. We would really need to see the standard deviation spread on the calendar beyond a single system, even if we have had a named storm in May the last few years. Water temps are still not quite there until around late May for any increase in climatological favorability.

[Roger Smith]

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/52312-2019-hurricane-all-named-tropical-storms-forecast-contest/

2019 tropical season forecast contest thread open. 

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

-AO showing up. Could be a big season for SE, US and Gulf hits. 

[Roger Smith]

I see there's a new invest candidate in the western Caribbean. 

The seasonal forecast contest will remain open past deadline tonight through the weekend or until that storm gets a more definite forecast posted.

See two posts back for the link to the contest. 

[Windspeed]

There may be enough time for a TS to become fairly organized prior to landfall Thur/Fri along the NW to central gulf coast. Though in a sheared environment and asymmetric in structure, the low may support severe supercells that ride over the Southeast and Tennessee Valley into the weekend.

[Windspeed]

Meh, the disturbance in the western GOM probably has degraded from "iffy" to unlikely at this point. There is still disorganized convection and perhaps a broad mid-level low, possibly even weak surface circulation near Brownsville. Despite current trends the HWRF continues to develop a deeper asymmetric tropical storm that gets pulled NNE-NE into LA, but unless the disturbance takes a drastic turn in consolidating convection, I'm giving up expecting anything other than weaker lows merging over ETX and MS Valley. Still significant impacts from severe storms and flash flooding over next 2-5 days to watch from those points, east.

[Windspeed]

High risk for flooding has been issued today for portions of Texas and Louisiana by the NWS/WPC due to the tropical disturbance over the western GOM.

[Windspeed]

2019 hurricane forecast & landfall probabilities raised by Colorado State

https://www.artemis.bm/news/2019-hurricane-forecast-landfall-probabilities-raised-by-colorado-state/

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

Big tropical AEW is over the eastern Atlantic Ocean now, showing rotation in the mid-levels and within the convection, deep convection has developed with the wave.  Anyone if this has a chance to develop?

[Windspeed]

Big tropical AEW is over the eastern Atlantic Ocean now, showing rotation in the mid-levels and within the convection, deep convection has developed with the wave.  Anyone if this has a chance to develop?

There is a strong MCS along the ITCZ boundary there that is attached to an inverted wave axis stretched back over Guinea and Sierra Leone. There is clearly mid level rotation on visible, but microwave does not show anything at the surface yet. If it persists, not impossible that an MCV/LLC could cutoff at the surface, but it would need to move WNW and break away from the ITCZ boundary. 

 

OTOH, if you will glance at the central Atlantic, you will easily notice a very strong and persistent westerly upper level jet out of the Caribbean very typical of this time of year. Anything that would come out of the eastern MDR is going to get shredded until that subtropical jet lifts out.

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

2 hours ago, Windspeed said:

There is a strong MCS along the ITCZ boundary there that is attached to an inverted wave axis stretched back over Guinea and Sierra Leone. There is clearly mid level rotation on visible, but microwave does not show anything at the surface yet. If it persists, not impossible that an MCV/LLC could cutoff at the surface, but it would need to move WNW and break away from the ITCZ boundary. 

 

OTOH, if you will glance at the central Atlantic, you will easily notice a very strong and persistent westerly upper level jet out of the Caribbean very typical of this time of year. Anything that would come out of the eastern MDR is going to get shredded until that subtropical jet lifts out.

Thanks for the reply Windspeed.

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

Does anyone know if that wave is legit off the west coast of  Africa?

[NCWX]

Local Meteorologist said the long term models are showing a possible system 12 days out forming off the east coast of GA and taking a possible path similar to Bertha.  I can’t find anything like that.  Or was he smoking something?   Thanks for any insight.   

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

There is a system developing deep convection over the NW Bahamas, any chance this becomes a storm?

[ldub23]

Looks like a fairly  active season to me.

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

Anyone think there is something to see in the area of activity just east of Barbados, like a couple of hundred miles, there is some semblance of a partial low-level circulation present.

[Windspeed]

A boundary is forecast to stall and linger over the north GOM next week. An MCS currently organizing over Kansas may push SSE with the boundary and move off the Panhandle coastline possibly developing a sharp surface trough / area of low pressure, which some of the globals are trying to close off into a tropical or sub tropical cyclone. At least something to watch for development towards the mid-to-late week timeframe.

[NavarreDon]

A boundary is forecast to stall and linger over the north GOM next week. An MCS currently organizing over Kansas may push SSE with the boundary and move off the Panhandle coastline possibly developing a sharp surface trough / area of low pressure, which some of the globals are trying to close off into a tropical or sub tropical cyclone. At least something to watch for development towards the mid-to-late week timeframe.

Obviously keeping a close eye on this. So many variables but a possibility. At work still, has there been any consistency with today’s model runs?


.

[Windspeed]

Even though we are still beyond 72 hrs from a trackable feature, if one does indeed resolve, there are already two different camps between the GFS vs ECMWF runs over the past few days. Though both models do have a sharp surface trough / low pressure system over the SE US & NE GOM, the ECMWF is more aggressive in southern advancement of that boundary and an attached 850-700 mb vortex. Cyclogenesis on the Euro is much further south out over the GOM, versus the GFS runs which keeps the feature either inland or in closer proximity to land.

Granted we are still early into in these model runs and confidence should remain low for now. If given a scenario of better modeling agreement on the eventual placement of the surface trough, even with a disturbance positioned out over the GOM doesn't guarantee TC development. That being said, last night's 0z ECMWF was the most aggressive in development so far:

[NavarreDon]

TAE has this graphic on their homepage basically picturing what Windspeed is saying above.




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[Sickman]

Western Tennessee is prime lemon country.