hawkeye_wx Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 12z UK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 12z Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 I'll set the over/under for 6.0" here. It's not going to be overly impressive snow growth but the DGZ is pretty deep for the first 12 hours with modest lift throughout. Based on how "fluffy" the last event was, I'd expect something fairly similar again (but with more QPF). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 Looks like the NAM 12k is the only model able to throw a few rouge juicy runs up here. Lets Go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 Looking like 2-3" here. Maybe higher end if lake component is robust enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 WWA hoisted for southern Wisconsin. Expecting 3-4" here over an 18 hour period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConvectiveIA Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 This event suggests a 6 inch snowfall here at home. We already have 4 inches on the ground now. Definitely the snowiest winter I’ve seen here since I moved here in early 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConvectiveIA Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 20 hours ago, mimillman said: I’ll be in Boston for this one, but hopefully we’ll have something fun to track for mid week. Speaking of which, Boston hasn’t done great this year. No it hasn’t at all. My sister lives near Hartford and they have barely got any snow this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 advisory map looks a little strange with LOT bypassing a good portion of its CWA. Though I agree 2-4" over 12-18 hr period on a Sunday in late winter it probably is nor necessary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 advisory map looks a little strange with LOT bypassing a good portion of its CWA. Though I agree 2-4" over 12-18 hr period on a Sunday in late winter it probably is nor necessary.ILX advisory for their northeastern counties is for inclusion of freezing drizzle on top of snow accums up to 2". Without that, they probably wouldn't have issued. If freezing drizzle looks more likely to occur down in southern LOT CWA, we may need to expand the advisory and perhaps include the Chicago metro counties not in headline for map purposes. Agree that a long duration 2-3/2-4" snowfall on a Sunday otherwise probably doesn't need one.Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Side note... this system is going to clinch an above average snowfall season at ORD (the whole snow season, not necessarily DJF). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: Side note... this system is going to clinch an above average snowfall season at ORD (the whole snow season, not necessarily DJF). The irony of that with no snow on the ground as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: Side note... this system is going to clinch an above average snowfall season at ORD (the whole snow season, not necessarily DJF). Chicago proper has to be at least 12” behind that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 0z nam continues to be quite dry for most of IL. Except for far nw IL and far northern IL. It is either onto something with the dry air to the east or is overestimating it. The 12km that is. 3km isn't as bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 17, 2019 Author Share Posted February 17, 2019 Not really too much to add, as things pretty much look on track for a 4-5" type event for the QCA. One difference showing up in the past few model cycles is we're slowing down the onset a bit. Precip lasts longer into tomorrow night though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Yea the system definitely slowed down. This thread is pretty dead tonight. Lol. And the one I started for the next storm. Guess we're the only ones enjoying winter. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Just now, StormChaser4Life said: Yea the system definitely slowed down. This thread is pretty dead tonight. Lol. And the one I started for the next storm. Guess we're the only ones enjoying winter. Lol I'm here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Snow should be starting here fairly soon. DSM down to 1/2 mile. Things still look good here for 4-8”. Hopefully I can reach 6” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 6 minutes ago, AppsRunner said: Snow should be starting here fairly soon. DSM down to 1/2 mile. Things still look good here for 4-8”. Hopefully I can reach 6” You you look to get into some nice banding. Probably will pivot over you 31 minutes ago, Baum said: I'm here. Whoot! Party! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Is it just me or does that snow band seem more north than models forecasted? Precip needs to fill in south or areas south of I80 are going to be in trouble. Hrrr and rap both show precip blowing up in the next few hours in MO but I'm skeptical Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConvectiveIA Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 22 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: Is it just me or does that snow band seem more north than models forecasted? Precip needs to fill in south or areas south of I80 are going to be in trouble. Hrrr and rap both show precip blowing up in the next few hours in MO but I'm skeptical Not sure but the snow is very heavy just south of I80 in Des Moines and we already have a few inches. The snow is expected to continue for upwards of 24 hours from now so to answer your question I’m pretty sure stuff will fill in south for us. Can’t say for sure areas east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 7 minutes ago, ConvectiveIA said: Not sure but the snow is very heavy just south of I80 in Des Moines and we already have a few inches. The snow is expected to continue for upwards of 24 hours from now so to answer your question I’m pretty sure stuff will fill in south for us. Can’t say for sure areas east. Yea you guys are golden. Further east not so sure. I'm bored. Need something. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 2 hours ago, Baum said: I'm here. Me Too! Lol. I love Winter and never get tired of it. We've certainly had a better Winter here then theyve had on the East Coast, but its been much better for the Western portion of the subforum. Last Winter I ended up with 62.5" of snow, however about 53" had fallen by this point. So far this Winter season, I am at 23.9". I see with this event Chicago is going to lock in an above average snow season. I had mentioned earlier, Chicago had only beaten Detroit one Winter out of the last 8. This Winter they are well ahead. Detroit seasonal average is at 42.4", and so far this season, 24.2" has fallen so we have a ways to go. I am liking tomorrow for some fresh snow however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 4-6+" of snow has fallen in the greater Des Moines area in only three hours tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Model guidance, including hi res guidance has continued to struggle/waffle back and forth with the low level dry air across portions of northern Illinois. The most drastic runs were the extended HRRR/RAP runs yesterday along with many NAM runs as well. The last two GFS runs 0/6z have both trended a bit snowier and the 6z NAM and nest came in snowier as well (mainly talking for north central/northeast Illinois). To add to those models, the 9z RAP trended much snowier across a large portion of northern Illinois, including the Chicago metro area with 4-5" for DKB/ARR/DPA/ORD. If these higher amounts of 3-4" locally 5" across northeast Illinois/Chicago metro area end up verifying, this will be a big win for solely the RGEM which has held steady for many runs now showing those amounts. It is always interesting to watch setups like these with fairly good WAA and enough forcing run into dry easterly flow at the surface and what ends up winning out. The last few HRRR runs has trended toward the new guidance as well and is a bit snowier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 A little bit surprised that there's a thunderstorm heading towards Indianapolis right now. If any of you get hit by that batch of precip certainly let me know what's falling, it'd be helpful. My guess based on CC is it's a lot of sleet or small hail for the city and aggregates north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Interesting based on Thundersnow's remarks that LOT came in with slightly lower totals out in Dupage this morning. I'm up near Sheboygan and MKX added us to the advisory due to Lake enhancement concerns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Snowing moderately here with 3-5" possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tuanis Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Great flakes, solid rates. Hope it keep up, love a sledding Sunday with the kids. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Going with 2-5" here. Hopefully no last minute shifts south, because lots of dry air to the north is going to create a tight gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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