Baum Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 ^ always get a kick how jaded the board gets if we've had a decent run of winter weather by mid February. Only 30 days ago the board would have been lit up stressing over every model run for a potential moderate event like this. Here's hoping we can have an eventful run through mid March and than a quick change to a warm spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 I'm going to go with 3-4 here. Looks like it could mix just to my south but if we can stay cold enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 ^ always get a kick how jaded the board gets if we've had a decent run of winter weather by mid February. Only 30 days ago the board would have been lit up stressing over every model run for a potential moderate event like this. Here's hoping we can have an eventful run through mid March and than a quick change to a warm spring.I'm in same boat as you. Pass on nonsense of last March-April unless we get a big dog locally.Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 On 2/15/2019 at 6:18 PM, RCNYILWX said: I'm in same boat as you. Pass on nonsense of last March-April unless we get a big dog locally. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk That stuff last March and April was misery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 I’ll be in Boston for this one, but hopefully we’ll have something fun to track for mid week. Speaking of which, Boston hasn’t done great this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 21 minutes ago, mimillman said: I’ll be in Boston for this one, but hopefully we’ll have something fun to track for mid week. Speaking of which, Boston hasn’t done great this year. super bowl and world series. here's hoping their next 10 inch snow is 2028. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 NAM looks a touch snowier this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 Just now, Baum said: NAM looks a touch snowier this way. 21z SREF 3” mean ORD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 2 hours ago, mimillman said: I’ll be in Boston for this one, but hopefully we’ll have something fun to track for mid week. Speaking of which, Boston hasn’t done great this year. Boston is having an epically bad winter. Season to date they are at 4.8", average to date 29.0". And they were forecast to have a historically snowy Winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 1 minute ago, michsnowfreak said: Boston is having an epically bad winter. Season to date they are at 4.8", average to date 29.0". And they were forecast to have a historically snowy Winter. Thing is, for them that can be overcome with one system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 3 minutes ago, mimillman said: Thing is, for them that can be overcome with one system I prefer frequency vs one 20" snow. And it's Baston..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 5 hours ago, Jackstraw said: I'm going to go with 3-4 here. Looks like it could mix just to my south but if we can stay cold enough Never doubt that WAA, especially this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 16, 2019 Author Share Posted February 16, 2019 Things are looking on track for a nice advisory event for many of us. Forecast soundings from the 3km NAM show the DGZ deepening as Sunday afternoon goes on over Iowa/northern IL, so hopefully we can keep lift going as long as possible to take advantage of that. 4"+ looks like a good possibility for a good chunk of the DVN cwa. One thing's for sure, it's nice not to have to worry about p-type, or potential ultra-sharp gradients with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 3k NAM is trending this towards a DAB event for chunks of LOT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 3k NAM is trending this towards a DAB event for chunks of LOT. Looks like it's playing catchup. 12z run bumped up from 06z run pretty significantly. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 Too bad this wave is dampening as it goes east. Good part of Iowa up to the Mississippi River get a solid advisory to possibly warning criteria snow. Though it falls over a long duration. Nam snowfall output looks very odd. It is very blotchy and sporadic. Doesn't make sense with the simulated reflectivity it is showing. RAP and HRRR to me have a more realistic snow swath Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 Also not to change subjects but we could probably start a thread for the mid week system. GFS and Euro are pretty consistent with that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 3 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: Also not to change subjects but we could probably start a thread for the mid week system. GFS and Euro are pretty consistent with that Smelt it dealt it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 Too bad this wave is dampening as it goes east. Good part of Iowa up to the Mississippi River get a solid advisory to possibly warning criteria snow. Though it falls over a long duration. Nam snowfall output looks very odd. It is very blotchy and sporadic. Doesn't make sense with the simulated reflectivity it is showing. RAP and HRRR to me have a more realistic snow swath I believe the NAM12 is suffering from unrealistic dry air issues that cause that splotchiness to the output. Have seen this issue several times the past few winters. Best way to compare is how you did with the simulated reflectivity vs the QPF/snow output. Other models look much more realistic as you said, including RAP/HRRR. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 12Z 12K NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 3K NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 10 hours ago, michsnowfreak said: Boston is having an epically bad winter. Season to date they are at 4.8", average to date 29.0". And they were forecast to have a historically snowy Winter. A person actually forecasted a "historically snowy winter"? Talk about setting yourself up for failure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 Most models seem like D-1" here. NAM trying to spit out 2-4". Even the HRRR and RGEM aren't as amped as the NAM. We are in the prime DGZ with some ul support, though it's shearing out as it heads east. Not expecting much more than an inch, but there's a chance for a bit of a surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 30 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said: Most models seem like D-1" here. NAM trying to spit out 2-4". Even the HRRR and RGEM aren't as amped as the NAM. We are in the prime DGZ with some ul support, though it's shearing out as it heads east. Not expecting much more than an inch, but there's a chance for a bit of a surprise. I agree. The 12z NAM setup would be interesting if it pans out with easterly flow and favourable ratios. Will be curious to see what the HRRR shows once it gets into normal 18 hour range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 23 minutes ago, blizzardof96 said: I agree. The 12z NAM setup would be interesting if it pans out with easterly flow and favourable ratios. Will be curious to see what the HRRR shows once it gets into normal 18 hour range. Enjoying UWO? You're looking to become a met? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 Hard to see how this goes poorly here. P&C up to 5-9” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 Looking more likely a 2-5” event across the area now.Lake enhancement likely as well.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 I'm going with 4" in Cedar Rapids. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 2 hours ago, snowstormcanuck said: A person actually forecasted a "historically snowy winter"? Talk about setting yourself up for failure. Multiple pros were forecasting 200% seasonal snowfall up and down the east coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 1 hour ago, snowstormcanuck said: Enjoying UWO? You're looking to become a met? I’m definitely enjoying UWO, thanks for asking! I’ll be finishing up my BSc in Physics next year. From there I’ll likely be persuing Medicine or Research. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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