AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 The first wave will probably trend wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 21 minutes ago, snjókoma said: Germany was our enemy not so long ago. Not sure why we care about their weather models. I care about their wx model as much as I do your posts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 Nice little ice storm north and west of the cities at 120 on the Canadian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 14 minutes ago, Ji said: it looks like how our storm yesterday looked for a while in modeling that ended up being a crap storm for DC metro. Congrats to you though When I am in here I try to be metro centric as much as possible. Besides in those setups rooting for you is good for me too because if you do OK then I can do GREAT. When DC gets totally skunked I can eek out a pretty decent event like I did but a BIG time storm is not likely. Usually for me to get 10" plus I need your area to get a few inches at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 11 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Gfs was a net positive at 12z . Wave 1 north Wave 2 south...baby steps That is kind of the relationship I see here... stronger wave one will pull the boundary south for wave 2. If we get the perfect balance we could get both. Hell...get the absolute perfect balance...just enough wave one, get wave 2 south of us THEN bomb it out...and we get all 3! Of course the glass half empty side says... the wrong balance and we fail fail fail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 10 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Cmc looks a bit better for wave 1 CMC has been in its own world with a way north solution for a while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 11 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Quite frankly I think we need to root the opposite way for wave 2...I'm wondering if a cutter solution actually end up being better for the big system we aren't talking about in this thread... if its close...root for snow. We have no idea what mid week will look like by the time we get there. No way you turn down snow now for snow later unless the snow now is pitiful and the threat later is a high probability blockbuster. The only time I was mad about snow now vs later was in 2015 when we had a great amplifying trough with 2 waves and the frontrunner took a bit too much energy and ended up pulling what would have been a real blockbuster OTS. AND...in my case it was only 2-3" so I was willing to kick that at a chance at a BIG snow a day later. DC got like 4" so for them it was a better deal. But in this case...next week is WAY out there, might not even be a big deal, and Sunday has decent potential if it breaks right so just root for the snow in front of you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: if its close...root for snow. We have no idea what mid week will look like by the time we get there. No way you turn down snow now for snow later unless the snow now is pitiful and the threat later is a high probability blockbuster. The only time I was mad about snow now vs later was in 2015 when we had a great amplifying trough with 2 waves and the frontrunner took a bit too much energy and ended up pulling what would have been a real blockbuster OTS. AND...in my case it was only 2-3" so I was willing to kick that at a chance at a BIG snow a day later. DC got like 4" so for them it was a better deal. But in this case...next week is WAY out there, might not even be a big deal, and Sunday has decent potential if it breaks right so just root for the snow in front of you. I guess I'm a bit more down on wave 1 because it feels like a DC special again that central MD may miss out on (unless it trends north to a perfect spot). But did wave 2 look much better this run? It's still a cutter here, isn't it? And overall, the models seem locked into the fact that we are gonna have a huge moisture bomb coming right at us a week from now. So unless that changes...heck yeah I wanna root for anything that'll help that be mostly or all snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 6 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: I guess I'm a bit more down on wave 1 because it feels like a DC special again that central MD may miss out on (unless it trends north to a perfect spot). But did wave 2 look much better this run? It's still a cutter here, isn't it? And overall, the models seem locked into the fact that we are gonna have a huge moisture bomb coming right at us a week from now. So unless that changes...heck yeah I wanna root for anything that'll help that be mostly or all snow! We will probably miss Saturday south, Sunday north, and next week will end up ejecting in 2 waves...the weak frontrunner will go south and the main one will amp up and cut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 FV3 precip for Saturday FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 6 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Yep ..the ol' amp happy bias it's a clear connection...CMC is trending south with wave 1 and north with wave 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 well i'm happy with gfs and cmc as long as the euro is still playing nice then nice 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: We will probably miss Saturday south, Sunday north, and next week will end up ejecting in 2 waves...the weak frontrunner will go south and the main one will amp up and cut. from your key board to mother natures ears...I think you might have nailed this one. Unless we can get an aleet to canx the uncanx...then I don't know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 13, 2019 Author Share Posted February 13, 2019 FV3 gets precip to the M/D Saturday and then has snow for most of MD and NoVA Sunday before ending as a little light rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: We will probably miss Saturday south, Sunday north, and next week will end up ejecting in 2 waves...the weak frontrunner will go south and the main one will amp up and cut. Troll...lol I haven't given up on any of these...just haven't been impressed on the top end if these. Would be okay if we can get 3-5" on Saturday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 Ukie time...where’s yoda? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 12 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: FV3 gets precip to the M/D Saturday and then has snow for most of MD and NoVA Sunday before ending as a little light rain. That model predicts snow everytime Ji farts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 My envelope of I 70 to I 64 with the bullseye somewhere in between stands. Euro will be a tad South of 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 11 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Troll...lol I haven't given up on any of these...just haven't been impressed on the top end if these. Would be okay if we can get 3-5" on Saturday! I was just kidding...kinda. I don't have any idea how these go, way too many moving parts. But what I just said is the legit fail scenario! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: That model predicts snow everytime Ji farts That's a bit of an exaggeration. It needs at least morning dew and a NE breeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 i'm willing to put money up for beans for Ji how does this venmo thing work again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 Bet the Euro comes in slightly north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 49 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Gfs was a net positive at 12z . Wave 1 north Wave 2 south...baby steps Yep. Keep things tightly spaced, or we gonna cut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 42 minutes ago, MD Snow said: Nice little ice storm north and west of the cities at 120 on the Canadian. Boy it sure does have a lot of shortwaves to look at. Good grief. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tplbge Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Bet the Euro comes in slightly north. I think models will draft south for the next day. And just when everybody gives up, we get nam'd at 0z tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 9 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Looking at mslp placement and strength probably similar to Gfs if not further south Edit..yep meteo has it missing south If all models had this thing running perfect overhead today I would be far more nervous about a bad outcome than right now. It's narrow so no matter what someone is getting their feelings hurt. Hopefully not mine. I like where my yard is for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 5 minutes ago, tplbge said: I think models will draft south for the next day. And just when everybody gives up, we get nam'd at 0z tomorrow. Interesting opinion given that the GFS has trended north for the past day and a half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: If all models had this thing running perfect overhead today I would be far more nervous about a bad outcome than right now. It's narrow so no matter what someone is getting their feelings hurt. Hopefully not mine. I like where my yard is for now. Oh come now...ya got a foot last month! The ones with the true hurt would be central MD if it misses us...#forumdivider (And this is why we need next week to work out...lol But since wave 1 and 2 are right in front of us, that's the most tangible thing we got right now!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 8 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: Interesting opinion given that the GFS has trended north for the past day and a half. Of course! It’s playing catch up to the King. We should always keep that in mind when the Euro is steadily leading the way. Then again, I’ll forget I even posted this worthless response by the time18z rolls in. LOLz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 2 minutes ago, Scraff said: Of course! It’s playing catch up to the King. We should always keep that in mind when the Euro is steadily leading the way. Then again, I’ll forget I even posted this worthless response by the time18z rolls in. LOLz. Not sure the Euro is steadily leading the way. It had a 150 mile jump north from 12Z to 18Z yesterday. Perhaps it is steadying itself now since the 0Z was in between its previous 2 runs, but it wasn't so steady yesterday at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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