clskinsfan Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 The NAM vs. the Euro.....I think I know where I would put my chips. Just saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 5 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: The NAM vs. the Euro.....I think I know where I would put my chips. Just saying. Seriously. I mean I get looking at all pieces of data/models but to have supposedly the best model in the world giving the area 3-6" inside of 100 hours is what I would want on my side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 10 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: The NAM vs. the Euro.....I think I know where I would put my chips. Just saying. I agree to an extent...but I have also found over the years that going with the model that shows the least snow often verifies the best, unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 Icon isn't much better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 Icon totally dry with the Saturday threat...but its ok because its really WET with the cutter right after it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 SOOOOOO close! ICON does suck so mostly just having fun until the reliable guidance actually kills our hopes and dreams soon. No idea if its right but IF the Saturday wave does wash out the Sunday wave likely will cut. It was the return flow behind the first wave that kept the second wave south of us. No weaker/south wave 1 goes the further north wave 2 goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Icon totally dry with the Saturday threat...but its ok because its really WET with the cutter right after it that's a way different dry than the NAM tho you had me worried addendum the ICON sucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I agree to an extent...but I have also found over the years that going with the model that shows the least snow often verifies the best, unfortunately. euro is rock solid except when it shows us snow. Then it becomes a terrible model like the others. IF it was a cutter, all the models would be showing it. Of course, when it comes to our snow....we get this ridiculous spread from models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Icon totally dry with the Saturday threat...but its ok because its really WET with the cutter right after it If i had to take a gun to my head bet...i would take the bet that we get a inch total from all 3 events combined Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 4 inches, no inches, 6 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 4 minutes ago, Ji said: If i had to take a gun to my head bet...i would take the bet that we get a inch total from all 3 events combined lol... well I kind of see the fail pathway this weekend... the saturday wave is pretty weak sauce and could easily wash out and that creates a cutter Sunday. But the only saving grace there would be a stronger Sunday system would increase the chances of snow Tuesday. Always save the best for last! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 Case in point...the ICON has a 1035 high parked over Albany as the Tuesday storm comes in...and forces a thump of snow even though the SLP is cutting to Detroit. With even a slightly ok track it would be a good snowstorm with that antecedent pressure pattern and air-mass. Of course relax that high at all with that track and its simply another cutter all rainstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: lol... well I kind of see the fail pathway this weekend... the saturday wave is pretty weak sauce and could easily wash out and that creates a cutter Sunday. But the only saving grace there would be a stronger Sunday system would increase the chances of snow Tuesday. Always save the best for last! I'm thinking the same thing however if the Saturday wave gets stronger and hits us then most likely the Sunday wave will stay under us but be weak. This scenario would probably yield to a more icy mix deal with the Tuesday into Wednesday deal. I might be willing to roll the dice on a stronger cutter Sunday to open the door for a better midweek solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snjókoma Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 Germany was our enemy not so long ago. Not sure why we care about their weather models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 Started the thread too early. Killed the threats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 Should end up a smidge north, but probably not much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 Well, it's still there on the GFS..might skunk us south tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deer Whisperer Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 2 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Started the thread too early. Killed the threats. Ah yes, quite they’re quite dead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Well, it's still there on the GFS..might skunk us south tho north trend etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 It holds, a small bump north. DC is literally the northern extent. So a hold from the GFS basically Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 1 minute ago, Deer Whisperer said: Ah yes, quite they’re quite dead Dead as a doornail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 13, 2019 Author Share Posted February 13, 2019 I’m totally good with the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Well, it's still there on the GFS..might skunk us south tho Doesn't skunk all of us, but temps look to be freezing at best, not sure what that will do to accumulation, but adding to seasonal is nice I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 It's weaksauce right now, but at least it's there. The cutter will probably have 4" of rain with river flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Case in point...the ICON has a 1035 high parked over Albany as the Tuesday storm comes in...and forces a thump of snow even though the SLP is cutting to Detroit. With even a slightly ok track it would be a good snowstorm with that antecedent pressure pattern and air-mass. Of course relax that high at all with that track and its simply another cutter all rainstorm. it looks like how our storm yesterday looked for a while in modeling that ended up being a crap storm for DC metro. Congrats to you though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 GooFuS baby steps north. On to the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 Guess at this point would be a 50 - 75 or so mile shift north in the last 48 heading in. So, if that were to occur, we would be in a decent spot per the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 The GFS has bumped north and trended stronger with the surface reflection 3 runs in a row. I like where I sit 78 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 3 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: The GFS has bumped north and trended stronger with the surface reflection 3 runs in a row. I like where I sit 78 hours out. agree. I like to follow the 540 line and its in a nice spot for now..for us at least knowing likely bump north so we have that wiggle space we need. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 Quite frankly I think we need to root the opposite way for wave 2...I'm wondering if a cutter solution actually end up being better for the big system we aren't talking about in this thread... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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