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PD Weekend 2019 Storm Threats


WxUSAF

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Keeping hopes alive, NCEP extended forecast narrative at least has us in the game.  Of course, "Mid Atlantic" has many different meanings to us.  From NCEP's 2/13 early morning discussion:

THE ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM STORM TRACK SETTING UP WILL MEAN A  
PERIOD OF GENERALLY WET CONDITIONS FOR AREAS FROM THE SOUTHERN  
PLAINS TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD
. LOW PRESSURE TRAVERSING THE  
SOUTHEAST/SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC ON SAT COULD PRODUCE AN AREA OF  
RELATIVELY LIGHT SNOWS NORTH OF THE SYSTEM ACROSS THE  
MID-ATLANTIC
, WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINS FOR PORTIONS OF THE  
SOUTHEAST. THE NEXT FRONTAL WAVE ON SUN MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF  
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN/SNOW TO PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
AND  
SOUTHEAST. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO  
DEVELOP ALONG THE WESTERN GULF COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL HAVE  
ACCESS TO MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE
COURTESY OF THE AMPLIFYING TROUGH  
TO THE WEST AND SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST, AND THIS SYSTEM  
LOOKS TO BE A MAJOR PRECIPITATION PRODUCER.
ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS  
A LINGERING POLAR FRONT AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE  
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN  
FROM PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE SOUTHEAST AND  
TENNESSEE VALLEYS LATE MON INTO TUE/WED. COLDER AIR TO THE NORTH  
OF THE SYSTEM MAY RESULT IN AN AREA OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION FROM  
PORTIONS OF THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC.  
CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT  
WINTER WEATHER EVENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC ON TUE
,  
WITH SNOW, SLEET, AND FREEZING RAIN ALL POSSIBLE.

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GFS 0600 run has the Sunday system suppressed south of MD for the most part.  Maybe extreme southern MD might pick up some wintry precipitation.  The storm on Tuesday however, looks promising, although that one will be a close call also as far as the rain/snow line, similar to what we all experienced on Monday.   It will be interesting to see how that declination between a cold rain and frozen precipitation evolves over the next several days.   

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2 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

Nice run for us but a pretty narrow stripe, definitely not time to spike the football yet. 

Yeah.  Seems this one witll have a stripe on the northern edge of precip.  Anywhere from EZF to PSU-land

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1 minute ago, Ji said:

I thought I looked at the wrong thing last night cause after the euro...this thread got crickets.


6z euro and 18z euro maps should be banned

Historically when euro goes from way North to South to halfway back north that says narrowing the zone...but I'm just a sarcastic ass so what do I know.

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