psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 39 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: And I am out.. Next(year?) Weren’t you paying attention. Next year is 2016 without the fluke HECS. Then two Nina’s. But 2023 will be rocking...if the mjo doesn’t screw it up again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 8 hours ago, Ji said: dont mean to be negative so i will try to put a positive spin.... but we needed a big bomb cutter for the Tuesday/Wed storm. Instead we got a saturday surprise snowstorm...which also fell apart....and also ruined sundays chances. So basically we gained nothing from losing the bomb cutter except we lost everything I brought up that possibility to Bob when the cutter went poof. Maybe I am doing this. These stupid fail scenarios I come up with (even before the models show that) end up right way way way too often. Maybe I should stop doing that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 19 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: pt@wxoutlooks would be proud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 22 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Weren’t you paying attention. Next year is 2016 without the fluke HECS. Then two Nina’s. But 2023 will be rocking...if the mjo doesn’t screw it up again. Well, 2023 - LOL! One note, heading to UK Week after next - remember that I will be working on the NAO - If it goes negative.. it was because of me.. In all seriousness.. I am truly not tracking after march 15.. We could get that MECS/HECS March 2 - 3 as I have believed when I keep looking at longer range! But for this theat - OVER The fat lady sang, the curtain closed - the fork has been stuck, the last page turned. It was a fluke because it showed up all of a sudden! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 Interesting how the further south the weekend storm goes the better the look for early week improves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 9 minutes ago, HighStakes said: Interesting how the further south the weekend storm goes the better the look for early week improves. At least you have a chance with the second one. my yard will likely miss both now as my best hope was the Saturday threat. set my expectations too high in November. Gotta go ugly early! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 47 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I brought up that possibility to Bob when the cutter went poof. Maybe I am doing this. These stupid fail scenarios I come up with (even before the models show that) end up right way way way too often. Maybe I should stop doing that. Cassandra!!! (For those who like Greek mythology) But seriously, I do recall some of that discussion on whether the weekend system(s) trending weaker might actually be detrimental to the mid-week system, i.e., not providing something to hold the high in. I'm kind of out for this weekend, beyond maybe seeing a bit of snow TV (if that?), and have come to terms with that. But the entire medium range has just turned out all wrong for us. Oh well...maybe it really is the weather being the weather despite all the prior positive indications. Very frustrating though. Hard to believe a couple days ago we were looking at upwards of 3 possible events, and now...well, it's like being sold a bill of goods! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: Next! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 Weren’t you paying attention. Next year is 2016 without the fluke HECS. Then two Nina’s. But 2023 will be rocking...if the mjo doesn’t screw it up again. HECS happen every 6-7 years so that sounds about right. For the few of you that actually work, don’t forget to step away from your desk and enjoy the spring day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 1 hour ago, BristowWx said: pt@wxoutlooks would be proud. he is a genius along with KA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 17 minutes ago, Yeoman said: For the few of you that actually work, don’t forget to step away from your desk and enjoy the spring day! Thats funny! I wonder how much this hobby effects worker productivity at the work place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
feloniousq Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 Was looking forward to a good powder weekend at Snowshoe, now I’ll be lucky not to get sunburned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 NAM wants to bring a quick shot of mess through the area Sunday afternoon. NAM nest is not on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 This setup took a huge dump. I had my concerns about it being a weak frontal wave, kind of like the day 3 bust we had in April. Looks like the result will be similar, very lttile snow for anyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 25 minutes ago, Amped said: This setup took a huge dump. I had my concerns about it being a weak frontal wave, kind of like the day 3 bust we had in April. Looks like the result will be similar, very lttile snow for anyone. I remember the concern that the area getting snow would be narrow and a fail north or south was very possible. FV3 takes best moisture around Richmond.. pretty good snow in that line on FV3.. GFS - little more spread out and not quite as moist. FV3 (weenie model) GFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 The euro has to hit someone in this sub... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 Rooting for some flurries in DC tomorrow... Radar in Illinois is more generous than was projected Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 I'm back in Arlington now, so expect the last second north shift to occur just enough to put Charlottesville into the highest totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 On 2/13/2019 at 9:41 PM, Deer Whisperer said: only took one time to realize you shouldn't say anything about a run til its finished. learned my lesson lol. im Current radar looks North of 12zGFS to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hyphnx Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 GFS looks colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lpaschall Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 Carroll county has brined the roads it must be going to snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricanegiants Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 Ya. Always bad when 7-8 people browsing. Ugh. Maybe Tuesday night will turn snowier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 14 minutes ago, Hurricanegiants said: Ya. Always bad when 7-8 people browsing. Ugh. Maybe Tuesday night will turn snowier. We may have sacrificed this for next week. Or we fail twice. IBM presents you make the call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 1 hour ago, lpaschall said: Carroll county has brined the roads it must be going to snow Fairfax County brined 2 days ago! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 Nam continues insisting on a wintry mix Sunday afternoon. Would be nice to get a little base so that every flake sticks later in the week! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 1 hour ago, peribonca said: Nam continues insisting on a wintry mix Sunday afternoon. Would be nice to get a little base so that every flake sticks later in the week! Not when you hit 50 on Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 I hope the 5" lolli on the GFS verifies north - right on top of DT's house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 winter cancel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Little bit of disconnect between offices. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Watching the models for the Feb 18th storm. Slightly more CAD on the 00z NAM 12hr. Looking a little bit different down the road in the SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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