yoda Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 Looks like a good hit for EZF still Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 Damn, what the heck. SE ridge coming? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 Just now, WesternFringe said: I love your objective analysis, it is one of the reasons this board is awesome. My point remains why should we be encouraged by the the 10+ day good looking patterns while immediately discouraged by the same 10+ day bad looking patterns. Neither has proven to be true with regard to ground truth snow this winter. I was 100% goofing around because some were having an emotional stress reaction to every run! That said the pattern is not heading the right way. It could flip around yes. But hard to feel great about the trends right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 1 to 2 inches for EZF... "jackpot" is around and to the SW of CHO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 Going to be monitoring St Louis closely tomorrow since our fortune seems tied to theirs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I was 100% goofing around because some were having an emotional stress reaction to every run! That said the pattern is not heading the right way. It could flip around yes. But hard to feel great about the trends right now. I don't feel great about trends right now either. But that's when mother nature (chaos theory) throws a curve ball and we get one more nice threat or two that she and the patterns don't account for. Half full kind of guy, I guess. eta: 17.5" this year/ 23.5" climo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deer Whisperer Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 Dam damn it NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 13 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: Damn, what the heck. SE ridge coming? Greenland looks cold. Warm spring I think but most likely below normal. Above freezing in most of Mexico. It’s linked but not related. Yes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 1 minute ago, Deer Whisperer said: Dam damn it NAM Patience. PWC bullseye is coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deer Whisperer Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 1 minute ago, SnowGolfBro said: Patience. PWC bullseye is coming. I’m waiting til 12z tomorrow to start sweating. I’m cool with where we are rn, especially seeing as we haven’t really ever moved out of the fringe zone at worst Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 Both the 3k nam and Icon really don’t get any precip north of C Va. RGEM is south of 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 I really like the RGEM as a model and it is WAY south now. Still time for a change, but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jewell2188 Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 20 minutes ago, snowdude said: I really like the RGEM as a model and it is WAY south now. Still time for a change, but we'll see. Sooooo you are basically saying it’s all but over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 6 minutes ago, jewell2188 said: Sooooo you are basically saying it’s all but over Well, no., maybe...haha...it's just been frustrating for sure especially when you forecast one thing and something else happens. Models really can't handle this pattern. But we've seen last minute shifts before and that can still happen. Not giving up yet, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Woodbridge02 Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 GFS is weaker and even more suppressed. I'm very close to being out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 well..its always 50 50 where a storm trends....but its a 100/0 when we need to to trend in a way that we want Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 dont mean to be negative so i will try to put a positive spin.... but we needed a big bomb cutter for the Tuesday/Wed storm. Instead we got a saturday surprise snowstorm...which also fell apart....and also ruined sundays chances. So basically we gained nothing from losing the bomb cutter except we lost everything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 Just now, Ji said: dont mean to be negative so i will try to put a positive spin.... but we needed a big bomb cutter for the Tuesday/Wed storm. Instead we got a saturday surprise snowstorm...which also fell apart....and also ruined sundays chances. So basically we gained nothing from losing the bomb cutter except we lost everything We haven't lost anything yet fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsnowman Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 Yeah, this confluence and further suppression is what I’ve been wanting since this morning, it actually helps Sun night and Tuesday night storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 It's over. 26 pages of wasted gossip once again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATreglown Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 The south move (don't want to use the word "trend" ) does nothing for my area. Will still be rain. I would rather this be north and give you guys snow, and me much less rain! I hate rain and I am so tired of wiping my pooches feet and cleaning floors!! I would be even happy with brutal cold and dry right now. At least my mud would be "FROZEN"!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 EURO is a fairly big south shift. Not even good enough for CHO. Decent for RIC. From 3" to a T in CHO. brutal actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mordecai Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 Only in the mid-atlantic would we have a thread of 26 pages about an event that we may not even see a flake in lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 14 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: EURO is a fairly big south shift. Not even good enough for CHO. Decent for RIC. From 3" to a T in CHO. brutal actually. Uh, actually, just kidding. Kuchera is 0" for everyone because temps are bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 To say the latest NAM runs (06Z) are unenthusiastic for Sat's storm would be an understatement. Pretty much confined to S VA and south. eta: GFS is slightly north and gets into central VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 To say the latest NAM runs (06Z) are unenthusiastic for Sat's storm would be an understatement. Pretty much confined to S VA and south. eta: GFS is slightly north and gets into central VA.What's worse is its weaker(the euro). Even if it went north its lost alot of juice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 44 minutes ago, Ji said: 46 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: To say the latest NAM runs (06Z) are unenthusiastic for Sat's storm would be an understatement. Pretty much confined to S VA and south. eta: GFS is slightly north and gets into central VA. What's worse is its weaker(the euro). Even if it went north its lost alot of juice Its evolved to a weak POS. Rather it not do anything. I have stuff to do outside if the weather is decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 And I am out.. Next(year?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Danajames Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 With only 24 hours to go, I think it's time to pull the plug on tomorrow's storm. It's weaker and farther south on most models. Sunday, if we get any frozen precipitation, will change to rain by later in the day so hopefully it will be light and insignificant. Most models still have the Tuesday storm alive but the GFS has basically lost it over the past 3 runs. It's not until later on Wednesday do they show anything and that's just your basic, Mid-Atlantic special- cold rain. Then, a couple of more chances of rain to end the week. On a brighter note, the GFS is still showing a coastal storm on the 2nd of March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.