CAPE Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 7 minutes ago, Scraff said: Might as well. I’m Oat Cream IPAing it currently. What else is there to do since the best I’m now hoping for is a few high cirrus clouds to the south. My luck though...a cloudless sky with a blazing retina burning sun angle that skunks my deck beers. This is what I am drinking. Good stuff. Didn't feel like forking over the bucks for the KBS, and this is not much different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 we needed a south trend this past weekend--it went north. We need a north trend this weekend--it goes south. It never ends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terpsnation Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 FV3 looks healthier than 12z though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 Just now, Ji said: we needed a south trend this past weekend--it went north. We need a north trend this weekend--it goes south. It never ends Take a break and come back in 2 weeks. Our last stand. My prediction tho- just as the western trough begins to progress east, the AO/NAO goes super positive, the trough retreats into N central Canada, and winter ends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 Just now, terpsnation said: FV3 looks healthier than 12z though... i wish that it was the OP model this winter. It would be alot more fun...untill it came down to the actual storm...but the fantasies would have been fun! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 2 minutes ago, Ji said: we needed a south trend this past weekend--it went north. We need a north trend this weekend--it goes south. It never ends How much snow do you have ? I only have 8.1 inches for the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said: Take a break and come back in 2 weeks. Our last stand. My prediction tho- just as the western trough begins to progress east, the AO/NAO goes super positive, the trough retreats into N central Canada, and winter ends. Yea..i wasnt impressed with EPS....looked like transient cold as trough went east...the NAO was non existant...basically it was a terrible run unless you like seeing a few days of blue in the east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terpsnation Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 Just now, Ji said: i wish that it was the OP model this winter. It would be alot more fun...untill it came down to the actual storm...but the fantasies would have been fun! I think the FV3 scored better than GFS for the Jan storm though? Maybe it's only better than the GFS when we're actually going to get snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 Just now, Snow88 said: How much snow do you have ? I only have 8.1 inches for the winter. i only have 23 in a winter i was suppose to get 45. I am 22 inches below normal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 I think the FV3 scored better than GFS for the Jan storm though? Maybe it's only better than the GFS when we're actually going to get snow FV3 isn't that garbage in short range. Did better than the GFS for the Jan storm and 12/09, but that is probably mostly because it tends to snow a lot more snow and those were both positive busts for areas they hit. It almost looks like it wants to turn the Saturday storm into a coastal with that north-to-east heavy stripe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 2 minutes ago, Ji said: i only have 23 in a winter i was suppose to get 45. I am 22 inches below normal Tough winter for a lot of winter. This was supposed to be a very good winter for alot of areas. Maine is the only area who is really cashing in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 Just now, Ji said: i only have 23 in a winter i was suppose to get 45. I am 22 inches below normal You average 45"? I dont think so. 'Suppose to get' does not mean "normal". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tplbge Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 5 minutes ago, Ji said: i wish that it was the OP model this winter. It would be alot more fun...untill it came down to the actual storm...but the fantasies would have been fun! FV3 looks pretty close to the Nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 Just now, C.A.P.E. said: You average 45"? I dont think so. 'Suppose to get' does not mean "normal". this was a normal that i placed in my head for a Moki Nino lol...my average is about 23 in the real world Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 Metfan bought it though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 Just now, tplbge said: FV3 looks pretty close to the Nam. Nowcast for those in the edge like myself unless we get a north trend. Coastal would be bad, I think, because the precip would colllapse toward the coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deer Whisperer Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 6 hours ago, RVASnowLover said: Agree with that. It's been a local winter. I’ll hug the fv3 and NAM, even tho that’s not usually a road that ends in satisfaction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 5 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Nowcast for those in the edge like myself unless we get a north trend. Coastal would be bad, I think, because the precip would colllapse toward the coastal. Yeah the fv3 looks similar to the rgem. Kind of has a northeast trajectory on the precip as it gets to the coast and precip collapses to the coast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 12 minutes ago, terpsnation said: I think the FV3 scored better than GFS for the Jan storm though? Maybe it's only better than the GFS when we're actually going to get snow Not only that, but I remember it getting all the praise then as a good model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hyphnx Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 Just now, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Not only that, but I remember it getting all the praise then as a good model. It did well for the 12/9 storm, too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 3 minutes ago, Hyphnx said: It did well for the 12/9 storm, too Personally, I think the chaotic pattern is hindering its capabilities. I've always been pro-fv3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 So the NAM, RGEM, and HRDPS all are very close to a decent event for the corridor. Getting close to being in their wheelhouse. A 50 mike shift north in the next 36hrs will make many happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 Latest WPC forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 Still think it comes north as we close. Not like December either when we needed a 200 mile shift. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Still think it comes north as we close. Not like December either when we needed a 200 mile shift. We shall see. Agreed, I think we see a bump north tomorrow...it happens every time. Unlike December, we don’t need it shift north from central NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said: Metfan bought it though. I'm not sure where he lives. Big fail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 14 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Still think it comes north as we close. Not like December either when we needed a 200 mile shift. We shall see. I dont think it will shift north so much as the precip field will just be larger. That is what usually happens. The expanse of the precip field is under modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 9 minutes ago, nj2va said: Agreed, I think we see a bump north tomorrow...it happens every time. Unlike December, we don’t need it shift north from central NC. It doesn't happen every time. Bumps north are common, but not inevitable. Sometimes, it is just a southern slider and the bump north from a DC stripe from 2 days ago doesn't bump north. It gets modeled further and further south and just stays as modeled. Otherwise, I would never get snow imby! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Danajames Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 Interesting how the 1800 GFS run has pretty much lost the Tuesday event. But it will be a close call on Saturday and as of right now, it looks like the winners will once again be D.C., northern and central VA and southern MD. Not convinced it will be cold enough for all snow, even though the forcing will be stronger in certain areas of VA. which may lead to rain changing to snow. Whoever gets the snow, I can't see anymore than 1-3" at most since surface temperatures on Saturday will be pretty marginal for accumulation. Sunday still looks like a rain event for the most part with the thermal profiles not being very supportive of snow. Maybe near the PA line can see more of a mix and some minor accumulation. Saturday still looks to be the most interesting since a shift north is not out of the question. As for Tuesday, I hope the GFS is correct and we don't get anything because if we do, it will just be snow or a mix, changing to rain by later in the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 15 minutes ago, Danajames said: Interesting how the 1800 GFS run has pretty much lost the Tuesday event. But it will be a close call on Saturday and as of right now, it looks like the winners will once again be D.C., northern and central VA and southern MD. Not convinced it will be cold enough for all snow, even though the forcing will be stronger in certain areas of VA. which may lead to rain changing to snow. Whoever gets the snow, I can't see anymore than 1-3" at most since surface temperatures on Saturday will be pretty marginal for accumulation. Sunday still looks like a rain event for the most part with the thermal profiles not being very supportive of snow. Maybe near the PA line can see more of a mix and some minor accumulation. Saturday still looks to be the most interesting since a shift north is not out of the question. As for Tuesday, I hope the GFS is correct and we don't get anything because if we do, it will just be snow or a mix, changing to rain by later in the day. Let me know when your posts will be changing to less awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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