BristowWx Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 2 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said: I feel like the sweet spot is going to be somewhere between Fredericksburg and MOCO. But it’s fun to track something that wasn’t a thing 3 days ago. eta: and each run is going to tighten the envelope. I’m thinking it ends up a Montclair jackpot Can’t get excited until king gets here. He can be a moody chap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 14, 2019 Author Share Posted February 14, 2019 Low is in an almost identical spot to the gfs and FV3 at 12z Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 Euro south of 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 Pretty similar but if anything it nudged south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 1 minute ago, LP08 said: Euro south of 0z how can it be south of 0z....0z gave us nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Low is in an almost identical spot to the gfs and FV3 at 12z Saturday. no euro is more south and a bit weaker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 Just now, Ji said: how can it be south of 0z....0z gave us nothing Mostly looking at the heaviest stripe of precip. Not the best of runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 Just now, Ji said: how can it be south of 0z....0z gave us nothing So nothing again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 Still ugly for DC, less than 0.1, but as others have noted we still have a little time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 1 minute ago, DCTeacherman said: Still ugly for DC, less than 0.1, but as others have noted we still have a little time. You do... but I think I am calling it for north of 70. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 i don't even think the wave has even fully entered the west coast yet. it's impressive how quickly it goes coast to coast, similar to playing against the wizards defense. i'd give it another day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 6 minutes ago, BristowWx said: So nothing again? Hang in there buddy. This is right where we want it. PSU and the northern crew have good reason to sweat but hopefully it can come enough north to get everyone involved Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 I see where you're coming from hoff, but all season long we've seen positive short range trends with systems. Maybe not for everyone, but for a large chunk of the area. No reason to assume that can't happen this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 50-100 miles shift north in 48 hrs...is easy...but never gaurenteed. It shifted from the va border to just south of dc with accumulating snow inside 48hrs on 12/9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 Just now, SnowGolfBro said: Hang in there buddy. This is right where we want it. PSU and the northern crew have good reason to sweat but hopefully it can come enough north to get everyone involved sure I can hang a bit. its not like I have anything else to track at the moment so my schedule is quite open. it either needs more amped or less confluence. fairly simple as a visual. 12z GFS relaxed a touch and there we go. But the Euro can also have incorrect solutions..not often but it can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 30.10 High pressures aren’t suppressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 Well that was ugly. I'll give this one until 12z tomorrow but I was hoping for a nudge north, not a nudge south. Can't give up any ground at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 1 minute ago, WEATHER53 said: 30.10 High pressures aren’t suppressive Isn't it the low pressure in Canada that is the source of the confluence? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clayhaga7 Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 24 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said: I feel like the sweet spot is going to be somewhere between Fredericksburg and MOCO. But it’s fun to track something that wasn’t a thing 3 days ago. eta: and each run is going to tighten the envelope. I’m thinking it ends up a Montclair jackpot What's up neighbor? I just joined this forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 1 hour ago, losetoa6 said: I know we are little close in for ensembles but.........I'd be lying if I said I didn't like it. Actually ..did you notice there like 3 members that amp this thing into the 990s Don’t have access to individual ens. I wonder if those more amped solutions are more wintry in Sunday night as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 8 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: 30.10 High pressures aren’t suppressive The high pressure isn't what is suppressive...look at the h5 flow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 How did 12z Euro compare to 6z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terpsnation Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 At the end of the day even if we don't get any snow, at least we can fall back on the friendship and comradery of these forums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 Just now, psuhoffman said: I'm trying to be nice Looking at tropical tidbits and their limited maps because weatherbell isn't out yet but Euro really drops the hammer with the confluence as the short wave rolls through. Pretty significant change from the 00Z in that regards. But it also looks as if there was a pretty good improvement running behind that shortwave. Take that extra confluence out and I think we see fairly significant improvement with the system down through N VA and DC crew. No matter wha,t I think we struggle with anything of significance for N of Balt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 That escalated quickly! eta: i think Brick killed a guy. Yea he should probably lay low. The police are most likely looking for him Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 Just now, SnowGolfBro said: That escalated quickly! Cirrus clouds is serious bizness! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 Just now, EastCoast NPZ said: Cirrus clouds is serious bizness! I will fight you for my virga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 7 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Looking at tropical tidbits and their limited maps because weatherbell isn't out yet but Euro really drops the hammer with the confluence as the short wave rolls through. Pretty significant change from the 00Z in that regards. But it also looks as if there was a pretty good improvement running behind that shortwave. Take that extra confluence out and I think we see fairly significant improvement with the system down through N VA and DC crew. No matter wha,t I think we struggle with anything of significance for N of Balt. yep...it would take only slight adjustments to get DC into the game for a nice thump snow. I think we are cooked up here. I would say on to the next but next might be 2 weeks away looking at how things are trending next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsnowman Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 I’m sticking by my audible from this morning, we are in nomansland right now. We need the Sat storm to either swing north and give us snow now (and we lose Sun and Tues) or we push this thing way south due to the confluence and Sun and Tues are back on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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