osfan24 Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 13 minutes ago, RVASnowLover said: Didn't yall just have a 8-12" in January? We've had one event compared to what 4 or 5 for the DMV area? You live in Richmond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 Just now, MillvilleWx said: He doesn't drink anymore, but if you make a mean seafood dish, steamed crabs, or a delicious steak, he'd rush right over I can do that. Well, I know where to get that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 12z GFS looks pretty similar to Euro to me. Maybe a bit more juiced by same general idea. DC looks like a good spot for this one. Not sure it will adjust this far north, but wouldn't take much! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 22 minutes ago, RVASnowLover said: Didn't yall just have a 8-12" in January? We've had one event compared to what 4 or 5 for the DMV area? DC burbs did. Not Baltimore burbs. It's been a winter of these very narrow storms... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 3 minutes ago, PhineasC said: DC burbs did. Not Baltimore burbs. It's been a winter of these very narrow storms... Nothing has been able to amplify and ride up the coast. Without that feature we have a lot of sharp cutoffs and thin precip stripes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 2 minutes ago, PhineasC said: DC burbs did. Not Baltimore burbs. It's been a winter of these very narrow storms... Agree with that. It's been a local winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 35 minutes ago, RVASnowLover said: That's what they want lol It's a very IMBY kind of sport...especially when we're talking about a narrow swath of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 Just now, nj2va said: It's a very IMBY kind of sport...especially when we're talking about a narrow swath of snow. I see. Fairly new to this board and I can already see how cut-throat it is haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 28 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Hmmm. We hug the CMC for sure. Pretty good 12Z suite so far. Everything ticked north a little bit. why would you hug a 1-2 inch event? If we dont get heavy snow...its over. Light snow will be useless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 2 minutes ago, Ji said: why would you hug a 1-2 inch event? If we dont get heavy snow...its over. Light snow will be useless Thought you were gone until Friday? And here I was looking forward to a day without your complaints. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 Thought you were gone until Friday? And here I was looking forward to a day without your complaints. Its Friday in Australia...mjo country Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 16 minutes ago, Ji said: why would you hug a 1-2 inch event? If we dont get heavy snow...its over. Light snow will be useless Because it has potential to not be a light event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rvarookie Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 I’m just glad I got my 13” in December. Anything else is just icing on cake at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 UKMET won't make any friends in DC/NVA. Looks like it cut QPF on the north side from 00z based on the meteocentre maps. Gets maybe .1-.2mm to DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 3 minutes ago, nj2va said: UKMET won't make any friends in DC/NVA. Looks like it cut QPF on the north side from 00z based on the meteocentre maps. Gets maybe .1-.2mm to DC. How about Richmond? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 4 minutes ago, Grothar of Herndon said: How about Richmond? It very much keeps us in the game IMO. I also think the northern edge of precip is always undermodeled until we’re 24 hours out too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 Just now, losetoa6 said: As expected Gefs looks much better for Saturday Thought the same thing in general for us northerners....Could be a little bit of a surprise event for DC and NE as well. Latest op runs and ens seem to give the slp a little bit more of a NE trajectory instead of due E off the coast. Maybe CAPE gets a late inning double off the top of the wall! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 UKMET way south, NAM way south. GFS and CMC basically a “hit” and the EURO has consistently been a hit until it trended south last night. Again, some models are going to bust big time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 Just now, losetoa6 said: I know we are little close in for ensembles but.........I'd be lying if I said I didn't like it. Actually ..did you notice there like 3 members that amp this thing into the 990s This is one of the few times that when you are excited I am too for anything but a south trend. Unless this amps and h5 goes over DC of course. I have to sweat temps more if its too amped so need the goldilocks track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 1 minute ago, snowdude said: UKMET way south, NAM way south. GFS and CMC basically a “hit” and the EURO has consistently been a hit until it trended south last night. Again, some models are going to bust big time. Hasn't the UKMET been South at 48 hours out most of this winter? I mean in the 2/12-13 storm, it had EZF getting like 3-5" of snow at 48 hours and EZF got nothing close, same with a late January storm too, not saying that's the case here, just musing a bit I guess....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 Just now, wawarriors4 said: Hasn't the UKMET been South at 48 hours out most of this winter? I mean in the 2/12-13 storm, it had EZF getting like 3-5" of snow at 48 hours and EZF got nothing close, same with a late January storm too, not saying that's the case here, just musing a bit I guess....... Definitely! UKMET hasn’t been good IMO this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: I know we are little close in for ensembles but.........I'd be lying if I said I didn't like it. Actually ..did you notice there like 3 members that amp this thing into the 990s I didnt...but you made me look. Ha! Yea, the NW trend is pretty clear (once off the coast)....I know the caveats of ens this close in but think they can be somewhat useful for spotting red flags. One thing I noticed for our backyards is the separation of clusters once the slp is in CVA along the NC boarder. There is a nice cluster that traverse VA without dipping into NC....and ride off the coast around VA beach. 06z was not even close to portraying this.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deer Whisperer Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 Ukie has been pretty bad this winter (see last storm) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 So if the 12z GFS is to be believed, all our beautiful Saturday snow (with a better north shift in the coming runs) will be washed away in the follow up threats. Just making sure I have it down until the King comes out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 Love how chill and psu are letting the weenies bring this one back today... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 Just now, Scraff said: So if the 12z GFS is to be believed, all our beautiful Saturday snow (with a better north shift in the coming runs) will be washed away in the follow up threats. Just making sure I have it down until the King comes out. Or if the fv3 is to be believed we ride the boundary for the next week with chances at front end snow/mix with each wave... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 just checked out the 12z gfs. much better. i could be wrong, but i feel like the upper levels imply this could come north a tad bit more. just need that repellant in the northeast to be less impactful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 34 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: I know we are little close in for ensembles but.........I'd be lying if I said I didn't like it. Actually ..did you notice there like 3 members that amp this thing into the 990s I'm not feeling it for us. Wish I was. This was the GEFS from 18z yesterday....that was a look that had my attention. This right here was a good look for our area This less so...this screams "fringed" with "some" snow but significant 4"+ snows staying south of us. Yea it could shift...but we are getting kinda close here... It's inside 48 hours, but more importantly the wave is taking mostly a west to east trajectory so the changes needed to get heavy snow up into our area would have to come pretty soon in the next run or two. Once this wave is out in the central states its pretty much locked in what happens to the east imo. I would be pretty excited if I still lived in northern VA or down towards Chill. But I think north of 70 is probably looking at a "fringe" with 1-3" totals most likely or maybe even worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I'm not feeling it for us. Wish I was. This was the GEFS from 18z yesterday....that was a look that had my attention. This right here was a good look for our area This less so...this screams "fringed" with "some" snow but significant 4"+ snows staying south of us. Yea it could shift...but we are getting kinda close here... It's inside 48 hours, but more importantly the wave is taking mostly a west to east trajectory so the changes needed to get heavy snow up into our area would have to come pretty soon in the next run or two. Once this wave is out in the central states its pretty much locked in what happens to the east imo. I would be pretty excited if I still lived in northern VA or down towards Chill. But I think north of 70 is probably looking at a "fringe" with 1-3" totals most likely or maybe even worse. Where is that little violin emoji guy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I'm not feeling it for us. Wish I was. This was the GEFS from 18z yesterday....that was a look that had my attention. This right here was a good look for our area This less so...this screams "fringed" with "some" snow but significant 4"+ snows staying south of us. Yea it could shift...but we are getting kinda close here... It's inside 48 hours, but more importantly the wave is taking mostly a west to east trajectory so the changes needed to get heavy snow up into our area would have to come pretty soon in the next run or two. Once this wave is out in the central states its pretty much locked in what happens to the east imo. I would be pretty excited if I still lived in northern VA or down towards Chill. But I think north of 70 is probably looking at a "fringe" with 1-3" totals most likely or maybe even worse. I feel like the sweet spot is going to be somewhere between Fredericksburg and MOCO. But it’s fun to track something that wasn’t a thing 3 days ago. eta: and each run is going to tighten the envelope. I’m thinking it ends up a Montclair jackpot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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