snjókoma Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 Interesting how the heaviest precipitation takes on a SW to NE pattern at hr 54 on the GFS... coastal influence? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said: SE MD PUMMELED! That guy was great. Cracked me up. Some bad posts are unintentionally funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Ya’ll give up way to easy. GFS is north. Snow to Towson-FDK line. Be patient weenies. I’m north of that line, I would never give up if I lived near DC. Even up here maybe... but the system isn’t amplifying so it’s going to slide almost due east so the changes I would need to get heavy snow up to the pa line would have to gone soon...early on out west. I’m feeling he’s unlikely to be significant up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 14, 2019 Author Share Posted February 14, 2019 3 minutes ago, Hyphnx said: But it's taking away from us in RIC 12/9/2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 14, 2019 Author Share Posted February 14, 2019 Just now, psuhoffman said: I’m north of that line Perfect spot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: 12/9/2018 Pretty much. I'm not going to root for southerners who've already seen a MECS over my own backyard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 If we can gain traction that the GFS isn't on an island, perfect time to slide north like 12/9 did. Like others mentioned, that moved significantly north the last 48, was just so far south at that juncture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 12Z FV3 looks like a tick north as well. .25" seems to run either just south or right through DCA, per cruddy ncep maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 FWIW, 12z CMC is basically 1-2" from EZF to the M/D line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 7 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: SE MD PUMMELED! Imagine that. Southern DE trying to find its way into the heavier stripe lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 2 minutes ago, Fozz said: Pretty much. I'm not going to root for southerners who've already seen a MECS over my own backyard. Didn't yall just have a 8-12" in January? We've had one event compared to what 4 or 5 for the DMV area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Perfect spot Naw I think this one ends up another dc area jack. I probably see some snow, maybe an inch or two, but I think the good stuff stays south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 Biggest Euro run of the winter coming up. Or at least biggest since 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 1 minute ago, yoda said: FWIW, 12z CMC is basically 1-2" from EZF to the M/D line Hmmm. We hug the CMC for sure. Pretty good 12Z suite so far. Everything ticked north a little bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 2 minutes ago, RVASnowLover said: Didn't yall just have a 8-12" in January? We've had one event compared to what 4 or 5 for the DMV area? Dude. You live in Richmond. Welcome to climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said: Imagine that. Southern DE trying to find its way into the heavier stripe lol I haven't been to Rehoboth in over a month... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 Just now, psuhoffman said: Naw I think this one ends up another dc area jack. I probably see some snow, maybe an inch or two, but I think the good stuff stays south. See my above post, I do think we could get a nice northern band, and rates do look to be good with this. The vort is solid, just gotta work on the confluence north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 Just now, RVASnowLover said: Didn't yall just have a 8-12" in January? We've had one event compared to what 4 or 4 for the DMV area? No northern MD was fringed by that. And northern MD averages 25+”. But forget average. I don’t care about average. I like big storms. So you have a 8-12” snowstorm this year. How many of those do you average a year? Actually how many do you average in a whole decade? Like 1. Maybe 1.5? You already had a once a decade type storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luckyamaha Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 SE MD PUMMELED!If 2" is PUMMELED then we know this is not our winter Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snjókoma Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 Just now, clskinsfan said: Hmmm. We hug the CMC for sure. Pretty good 12Z suite so far. Everything ticked north a little bit. Uhh, the CMC ticked south and is strictly worse than its 00z run for the majority of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 Thanks for the CMC correction. I didnt look at the 0Z run because it is such a horrid model. But you are right it appears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 Just now, C.A.P.E. said: I haven't been to Rehoboth in over a month... Weekend too. DFH annual road trip back on? Stop by the Cottage Cafe in Bethany for incredible burgers and fries, or Homemade pot roast. Mmmmmm In all seriousness, this usually is the time where models start creeping north, but that confluence will not just scoot out a ton, but a 50 mile adjustment isn't out of the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 Are we seriously arguing over whose yard is more deserving of snow lol. Because if we are... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 Just now, MillvilleWx said: Weekend too. DFH annual road trip back on? Stop by the Cottage Cafe in Bethany for incredible burgers and fries, or Homemade pot roast. Mmmmmm In all seriousness, this usually is the time where models start creeping north, but that confluence will not just scoot out a ton, but a 50 mile adjustment isn't out of the question. Yeah I think the beach would struggle with temps unless it was the jack zone with rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 FV3 ticked north a bit as well and has more juice than 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 Just now, C.A.P.E. said: Yeah I think the beach would struggle with temps unless it was the jack zone with rates. Completely agreed. My dad is still there though, so Bethany should be good anyway. He'd see snow in Miami if he moved there. It's uncanny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I’m north of that line, I would never give up if I lived near DC. Even up here maybe... but the system isn’t amplifying so it’s going to slide almost due east so the changes I would need to get heavy snow up to the pa line would have to gone soon...early on out west. I’m feeling he’s unlikely to be significant up here. This is better for our chances than any NAMming we could get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 Just now, MillvilleWx said: Completely agreed. My dad is still there though, so Bethany should be good anyway. He'd see snow in Miami if he moved there. It's uncanny See if he wants to come hang at my place. Does he like craft beer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said: See if he wants to come hang at my place. Does he like craft beer? He doesn't drink anymore, but if you make a mean seafood dish, steamed crabs, or a delicious steak, he'd rush right over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 12 minutes ago, RVASnowLover said: Didn't yall just have a 8-12" in January? We've had one event compared to what 4 or 5 for the DMV area? Not all of us. The biggest event I've had was just over 4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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