clskinsfan Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 Through 54 there is basically no snow on this NAM run. A little around Snowshoe and maybe Roanoake. But other than that it is a rainstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 12-9 gave me an inch of snow and it was modeled 48 hours out for PWC to get nada. The models struggle with the Northern stream and confluence. We can definitely fail but no need to throw in the towel until 12z tomorrow. It would be nice to see a North trend start by happy hour today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deer Whisperer Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 3 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said: 12-9 gave me an inch of snow and it was modeled 48 hours out for PWC to get nada. The models struggle with the Northern stream and confluence. We can definitely fail but no need to throw in the towel until 12z tomorrow. It would be nice to see a North trend start by happy hour today Yup. Not gonna sweat it til at least tomorrow night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 No one gets snow this run except the southern mountains of VA and WV. Double edge sword. To get the cold air aloft we need squashes the precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 DC might still be in the game, but it's going to be really tough for the northern crew to salvage this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 If we're going to fail, we might as well do it spectacularly. NAM is the first step. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 4 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: No one gets snow this run except the southern mountains of VA and WV. Double edge sword. To get the cold air aloft we need squashes the precip. This is exactly what was being discussed in the AFD from Mount Holly yesterday evening. Delicate setup if you want snow out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 I know its way to close to be using the ensembles but to me, it looks like the majority of the GEFS are north leaning compared to the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 3 minutes ago, LP08 said: I know its way to close to be using the ensembles but to me, it looks like the majority of the GEFS are north leaning compared to the op. I know this is off topic a bit but where do you find the ind members on weather models? Is it right in front of my face (most likely) but for the life of me I cant find em... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 Its on the Model lab link. https://lab.weathermodels.com/ Click GEFS ensembles. That site needs a lot of work to say the least! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 In my experience ensembles are more expansive with precip sheilds. I don't really think that looks to be north. That said, as long as there are no major changes to the strength of the "storm", then I think most would agree that these things always tend to come north a bit as we approach tipoff. If you are in any of the northern extent of the precip at this time, you shouldn't throw in the towel because many times that is a great place to be 2 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 Thanks...much appreciated. Yes....dont quite understand why all products cant be in one location? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 Super weak sauce now! If we do not re-amp I am thinking "storm" should be removed from the thread title and just call it an event. trends ain't our friend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 Icon didn’t move south from 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 1 minute ago, MD Snow said: Icon didn’t move south from 6z. Baby steps! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 1 hour ago, BristowWx said: This was really good post. Seeing this way makes more sense vice just assuming the system is just weak sauce. the coffee is just a strong in the cup but the steam is being blown off the top above the rim...we are the top above the rim If this storm is the coffee, then this winter is crappy Maxwell House. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 4 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: If this storm is the coffee, then this winter is crappy Maxwell House. Yep. Original in the can blend using a Mr. Coffee maker and Sweet-n-Low in the cup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 17 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: If this storm is the coffee, then this winter is crappy Maxwell House. Imo This is a bonus chance at snow considering how it just popped all of a sudden on the modeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsnowman Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 I want to audible at the line of scrimmage before the 12z GFS comes out. Let’s hope for much stronger confluence and a big push south of the Saturday storm, that sets us up better for the Sunday night storm. Right now we are stuck in nomansland with getting a slightly southern slider and a mix for the Sunday night (and Tues) storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 GFS is rolling. Won’t be long now. Confluence less at 18. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 Just now, dsnowman said: I want to audible at the line of scrimmage before the 12z GFS comes out. Let’s hope for much stronger confluence and a big push south of the Saturday storm, that sets us up better for the Sunday night storm. Right now we are stuck in nomansland with getting a slightly southern slider and a mix for the Sunday night (and Tues) storm. Adjusting hope for flakes for the promise of future flakes is folly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 GFS should end up a little north of 6z. A touch less confluence and a little more juiced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 Gets decent snow into DCA at 48. The good stuff is still south but tracks a little more north than 6z and overall more precip on northern part of the shield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 14, 2019 Author Share Posted February 14, 2019 Ya’ll give up way to easy. GFS is north. Snow to Towson-FDK line. Be patient weenies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hyphnx Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 Just now, WxUSAF said: Ya’ll give up way to easy. GFS is north. Snow to Towson-FDK line. Be patient weenies. But it's taking away from us in RIC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 SE MD PUMMELED! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 Nice shift to the north for 12z GFS. Lol, I'm on the extreme northern fringe of the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 Just now, Hyphnx said: But it's taking away from us in RIC That's what they want lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 1 minute ago, Hyphnx said: But it's taking away from us in RIC I am inconsolable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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