SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 Just now, MD Snow said: How does that compare to 0z? Worse, trending the wrong way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 12 minutes ago, MD Snow said: How does that compare to 0z? Much much worse for DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 13 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: Worse, trending the wrong way. The LPC and heavy precip .75” isn’t shifting south. The confluence to the north is flexing and shifting south. Relax that slightly and precip comes back north. A north trend is never a gaurentee but the system isn’t getting weaker it’s just that precip is getting sheared off. Any slight relaxation or strengthening of the confluence will have big implications for how far north precip makes it or doesn’t. At least the core of heavy precip isn’t really moving south and the lpc isn’t getting kicked down to georgia. My goal for today is that things don’t get worse than what the 6z Euro just showed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 Here's a good visual of the trends over the past 3 model cycles of the GFS. We really need a reversal today. We are only about 48 hours away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 This is a December redo. Models picking up on stronger confluence as we approach the event. Uggg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 Suppression Depression for Saturday evening. Monday and now Thursday is worryingly north for me. Looks like we're entering an active period. Hoping for one nice one to end February Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 Must. Suppress. Inner. DEB Ok, I'm back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: This is a December redo. Models picking up on stronger confluence as we approach the event. Uggg. I was thinking the same thing. The wave guide over North America sucks for this threat, and the confluence is never lined up for us, even worse for areas to our NE. Amazing too, no storms to the benchmark yet , and it is mid Feb. Disturbances fly in and exit right. Maybe that changes at the very end of Feb, if we get the trough to set up in the East, as alluded to by many here. As for the short term threat, and even longer term ,say what you want about the EPS snowfall trends but it seems it is going to possibly be correct regarding less snow here than others thought , from just three days ago. Needed to have consistency and we lost it about three days ago. Lastly these threat this winter have been either coastal hugger, or surpression or cutter. And the Midwest in the target zone and the SE ridge more Nina like. We need a shake up on a grand scale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Must. Suppress. Inner. DEB Ok, I'm back. I'm doing pretty well suppressing mine. We all gotta hang in there. Plenty of time to move back north. It's disheartening though to see we're having the same problems...suppressing flow from our north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 7 minutes ago, CarLover014 said: Suppression Depression for Saturday evening. Monday and now Thursday is worryingly north for me. Looks like we're entering an active period. Hoping for one nice one to end February wow. Toms River....my home town. TRHS East...Go Raiders! So 2 places I have lived where the snow climo is a bag of flaming turds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 Just now, stormtracker said: I'm doing pretty well suppressing mine. We all gotta hang in there. Plenty of time to move back north. It's disheartening though to see we're having the same problems...suppressing flow from our north. Yeah and then our other problem likely returns just after that. Ridge builds in the Caribbean then expands NW, and probably nothing in the NS to compress the flow to offset it. We really do fail every which way around here lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 While DC/NVA are certainly not out of it, we need the southern trend to halt today and keep us close. If RIC can stay the bullseye today with EZF on the northern edge of 3”, I’d feel good for getting that last 24 hour push north to get NVA/DC into the 3”+ totals. I’m hosting a bunch of family this weekend in Deep Creek including six nieces and nephews who really want to see snow...even just 2-3” there would be great for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said: Yeah and then our other problem likely returns just after that. Ridge builds in the Caribbean then expands NW, and probably nothing in the NS to compress the flow to offset it. We really do fail every which way around here lol. It’s actually kind of funny...a little bit of the ridge would help us this weekend but we can’t get it when it could help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hyphnx Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 1 minute ago, nj2va said: While DC/NVA are certainly not out of it, we need the southern trend to halt today and keep us close. If RIC can stay the bullseye today with EZF on the northern edge of 3”, I’d feel good for getting that last 24 hour push north to get NVA/DC into the 3”+ totals. I’m hosting a bunch of family this weekend in Deep Creek including six nieces and nephews who really want to see snow...even just 2-3” there would be great for them. I don't want another 12/9.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 5 minutes ago, nj2va said: While DC/NVA are certainly not out of it, we need the southern trend to halt today and keep us close. If RIC can stay the bullseye today with EZF on the northern edge of 3”, I’d feel good for getting that last 24 hour push north to get NVA/DC into the 3”+ totals. I’m hosting a bunch of family this weekend in Deep Creek including six nieces and nephews who really want to see snow...even just 2-3” there would be great for them. You don’t have any snow on the ground up there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 41 minutes ago, MD Snow said: The LPC and heavy precip .75” isn’t shifting south. The confluence to the north is flexing and shifting south. Relax that slightly and precip comes back north. A north trend is never a gaurentee but the system isn’t getting weaker it’s just that precip is getting sheared off. Any slight relaxation or strengthening of the confluence will have big implications for how far north precip makes it or doesn’t. At least the core of heavy precip isn’t really moving south and the lpc isn’t getting kicked down to georgia. My goal for today is that things don’t get worse than what the 6z Euro just showed. To illustrate here is the last couple runs from the GEFS...yeah i know don't use ensembles blah blah...but I think it gives a better picture of where we are at right now. The core of the heavy precip really hasn't moved that much over the last couple runs. Rather, the light stuff to the north has gotten shaved off. Notice on the 6z run the max actually increased to our south. This system has plenty of juice. Get the confluence to relax a touch and we'll be in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 1 minute ago, MD Snow said: To illustrate here is the last couple runs from the GEFS...yeah i know don't use ensembles blah blah...but I think it gives a better picture of where we are at right now. The core of the heavy precip really hasn't moved that much over the last couple runs. Rather, the light stuff to the north has gotten shaved off. Notice on the 6z run the max actually increased to our south. This system has plenty of juice. Get the confluence to relax a touch and we'll be in business. This was really good post. Seeing this way makes more sense vice just assuming the system is just weak sauce. the coffee is just a strong in the cup but the steam is being blown off the top above the rim...we are the top above the rim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deer Whisperer Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 4 minutes ago, BristowWx said: This was really good post. Seeing this way makes more sense vice just assuming the system is just weak sauce. the coffee is just a strong in the cup but the steam is being blown off the top above the rim...we are the top above the rim Nice analogy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 WPC's present thoughts: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 14 minutes ago, T. August said: You don’t have any snow on the ground up there? Looks like a few inches on the Ring cameras. They got a good amount of ice this week too. Kids love being outside as its snowing though....well I guess we all do on this forum too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 12 minutes ago, MD Snow said: To illustrate here is the last couple runs from the GEFS...yeah i know don't use ensembles blah blah...but I think it gives a better picture of where we are at right now. The core of the heavy precip really hasn't moved that much over the last couple runs. Rather, the light stuff to the north has gotten shaved off. Notice on the 6z run the max actually increased to our south. This system has plenty of juice. Get the confluence to relax a touch and we'll be in business. I don't think there has been a storm this winter that has trended south just prior to precip falling! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: WPC's present thoughts: Perfectly matches the seasonal trend lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 If we are starting to draw a connection between the 12/09 storm earlier this year, then NOVA stands in a great spot right now. Most people don’t appreciate the final north jump that storm made because it wasn’t enough for most, but it the jackpot zone jumped 100+ miles from where the GFS had it 48 hours out. The EURO struggled too. Snow got to Mt. Vernon when it was modeled to struggle to get all that much past CHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 10 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: If we are starting to draw a connection between the 12/09 storm earlier this year, then NOVA stands in a great spot right now. Most people don’t appreciate the final north jump that storm made because it wasn’t enough for most, but it the jackpot zone jumped 100+ miles from where the GFS had it 48 hours out. The EURO struggled too. Snow got to Mt. Vernon when it was modeled to struggle to get all that much past CHO. Exactly! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 The NAM will most likely end up more squashed. Stronger confluence this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 We’ve never got NAM’ed. You know that’s not a good sign. I’m putting a fork in this up here in Baltimore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 Probably nothing but the NAM will actually be North some. Confluence is a little quicker lifting as after the deeper punch from the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 1 minute ago, LP08 said: Probably nothing but the NAM will actually be North some. Confluence is a little quicker lifting as after the deeper punch from the north. Agreed. The confluence was stronger early in the run but moved north sooner. And maybe that is what ends up saving us in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 Just now, losetoa6 said: Again ..we're are seeing a stronger vort as Showme has been pointing out .its all about the confluence Yeah. A trend this year has certainly been to amp as we close causing a north shift following a de-amp in the mid range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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