eurojosh Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Please keep me posted I'm on the edge of my seat Killer showers in Charleston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 Guys This isn't even desperation Desperation looks good compared to some of this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 2 minutes ago, Deer Whisperer said: only took one time to realize you shouldn't say anything about a run til its finished. learned my lesson lol It’s ok. You just gotta watch what you say or people get the wrong idea. People think you condone that stuff. Sammy Davis Jr. is very talented. Just leave it at that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 2 minutes ago, Deer Whisperer said: only took one time to realize you shouldn't say anything about a run til its finished. learned my lesson lol Don't beat yourself up. There is actually some predictive value to the early frames, but I find it's more useful to avoid the precip panels and start high. Take a look, for instance, at the steering flow itself, the 250mb pattern. Compare 36 on the NAM and 42 on the 18z GFS. On the NAM you can see there's a piece of energy over Chicago (etc); on the GFS, it's not there. It's always a guessing game, but what that piece of energy ends up doing is forcing the NAM south; without it there, the GFS flow is more flat, allowing the energy in the west to ride straight across country, and further north by the time it reaches the Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deer Whisperer Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 It’s ok guys, my forte is speaking to deer, not weather. Silly me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 00z GFS going to be a tad south of the 18z run for Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 Good hit for EZF and RIC this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 1 minute ago, yoda said: 00z GFS going to be a tad south of the 18z run for Saturday Looks about 50 miles south? Mostly noise at this range but makes a world of difference because the strip of snow is so small. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 Just now, yoda said: Good hit for EZF and RIC this run yeah that's nice for central/southern VA. Jackpot runs CHO and due west. Can't discount that. Decisions, decisions... While I'm here, I'll post the 18z EURO snowmap. Saw the QPF but not sure it did an accurate job of showing what happened. Good swath of solid advisory level snow. Typical north jog and many are happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 Well the Canadian is on our side...DC-north 2-4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 FV3 a hair more north and less amped overall. No streak of 0.5" qpf like on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 Ugh, CHO jackpot. It's just not right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 28 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said: Well the Canadian is on our side...DC-north 2-4 Sure would be nice if the GEM could be correct for the first time ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 Euro went south and is weaker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 Euro went south and is weaker Wow never seen the euro change so drastically so close to game time. If it was a cutter....this would never happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 Now you can start paying a little bit of attention to the NAM. Over the last two runs it is finally picking up on the shortwave dropping down through the central US. For comparisons sake here is the 18Z Here is the latest run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mordecai Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 12z NAM good hit for S VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 After the Saturday deal drops an inch/misses most of us to the south, the next 2 events look to track further N/W. The building SE ridge looks stronger and a bit further NW over the last few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 Actually saw an improvement on the Euro suite at 500's for our Sat storm. We are getting better separation with the shortwave and the SW troughing which is allowing better ridging to develop behind the shortwave. This in turn is giving us a stronger shortwave. We are seeing this across the board (Euro op, EPS means, control run). Unfortunately this improvement was offset with a more southern push of the confluence to our north as some NS energy pushes through. So we are seeing our system suppressed farther south and weaker as it has less room to strengthen. Take that extra suppression out and we are probably talking a beefier version of what we saw with the 12Z snow maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 25 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Actually saw an improvement on the Euro suite at 500's for our Sat storm. We are getting better separation with the shortwave and the SW troughing which is allowing better ridging to develop behind the shortwave. This in turn is giving us a stronger shortwave. We are seeing this across the board (Euro op, EPS means, control run). Unfortunately this improvement was offset with a more southern push of the confluence to our north as some NS energy pushes through. So we are seeing our system suppressed farther south and weaker as it has less room to strengthen. Take that extra suppression out and we are probably talking a beefier version of what we saw with the 12Z snow maps. Still time for some minor tweaks. We have the inevitable north shift inside of 24 hours to look forward to. A 1-3" event would work for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 12 hours ago, Wonderdog said: 18z is a nice flush hit for NOVA. Cheers brother. 2019/20 will be better I can feel it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 3 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Cheers brother. 2019/20 will be better I can feel it! Almost has to be. If it wasn't for our over performer, this winter would have been a major disappointment. Still time to score with all the storm chances but that se ridge has been a killer. Timing something obviously would be key. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 4 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: Almost has to be. If it wasn't for our over performer, this winter would have been a major disappointment. Still time to score with all the storm chances but that se ridge has been a killer. Timing something obviously would be key. Do you know if these models have algorithms that allow for changes to take place on runs routinely based on past performances. Like a relaxation of the se ridge occurs after affecting our area for about a week which then allows the LR to look better than it really is? I know I'm probably not asking this question the correct way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 Like 5 posts overnight. Never a good sign Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 Is the old chestnut that the Euro handles southern stream better, the GFS northern, still thought to be (or ever thought to be) true? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsnowman Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 6z GFS still a miss to the south for Saturday. 48 hours until game time so we need models to start shifting back north again today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said: Still time for some minor tweaks. We have the inevitable north shift inside of 24 hours to look forward to. A 1-3" event would work for me. Let’s hope this was nothing more than the famous windshield wiper effect. Yesterday north, overnight south, coming back north today. Eta: by happy hour gfs today, bourbon barrel stouts will be flowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 6z Euro is ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 22 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: 6z Euro is ugly. How does that compare to 0z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Danajames Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 The usual model mayhem...GFS shifted back south overnight. Outside of extreme southern MD, most of the state is a miss with the Saturday event. It's unfortunate because the source of cold air aloft will be more prevalent at that time. Late Sunday's system still looks too warm to me...mix at best if anything does happen. And unless the colder air can lock in place on Tuesday as the warm front tries to move north, any precipitation with that one will be a mix too. At least in my neck of the woods. Overall, not too impressive over the next 5 days. If any of us in the area can get 1-3" at any given time, it should be considered a win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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