WVclimo Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 5 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Every other year in the history of years 72 hours out anyone just north of the bigger totals would be dancing and singing right now. I'm counting on this. 0.10" QPF at 32 degrees as depicted won't mean much. Need about 30-50 miles as we close in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 2 minutes ago, Mdecoy said: Euro is looking good for DC to be the cutoff on the south side and Philly the cutoff on the north. Based on north trends. Looking good. DC is nowhere near the southern cutoff. What are you talking about? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 7 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Every other year in the history of years 72 hours out anyone just north of the bigger totals would be dancing and singing right now. Richmond to Raleigh should be excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 1 minute ago, WVclimo said: I'm counting on this. 0.10" QPF at 32 degrees as depicted won't mean much. Need about 30-50 miles as we close in. I'd feel good If I were you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 Just now, StantonParkHoya said: DC is nowhere near the southern cutoff. What are you talking about? This is going to shift north 50-75 miles is we go by trends so far this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 1 minute ago, PhineasC said: Richmond to Raleigh should be excited. in December Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 21 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: @North Balti Zen, @BaltimoreWxGuy, @nw baltimore wx Here we go again...lol Now we oughta get this further north this time, though (we just don't wanna see any south trends!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 13, 2019 Author Share Posted February 13, 2019 Euro seems essentially locked in. 72hrs out not much reason to look anywhere else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 3 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Richmond to Raleigh should be excited. Yeah, we're ecstatic to see more cold rain down here. We haven't had enough of it this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 See see 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Euro seems essentially locked in. 72hrs out not much reason to look anywhere else. I like the Euro, but what we really need is a good NAMing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 2 minutes ago, RVASnowLover said: Yeah, we're ecstatic to see more cold rain down here. We haven't had enough of it this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 2 minutes ago, Scraff said: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 11 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: @North Balti Zen, @BaltimoreWxGuy, @nw baltimore wx Here we go again...lol Now we oughta get this further north this time, though (we just don't wanna see any south trends!) Even if there isn't a move north near game time, I'd be psyched to see accumulating snow falling during the day. There are so many close and good breweries with big windows in any direction nowadays, that I'm not worried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 26 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Euro seems essentially locked in. 72hrs out not much reason to look anywhere else. I generally agree but this year the euro has had more than a few big shifts inside of 72 hours. I really like seeing back to back nearly identical runs of course. Small shifts with such a narrow field will no doubt cause some freakouts and meltdowns though. I expect many over the next 3 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 I take and RUN with it. That would put me well over my average. I'd feel almost guilty given how this winter has gone for others in this sub. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 EPS mostly supports the op but the stripe is super narrow and the various solutions show typical spread. In this case, a 75 mile shift in any direction has drastic implications. OTOH- at 72 hours out the op should be given the most weight by far and we all know that there will be shifts in the best snowfall as leads close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: EPS mostly supports the op but the stripe is super narrow and the various solutions show typical spread. In this case, a 75 mile shift in any direction has drastic implications. OTOH- at 72 hours out the op should be given the most weight by far and we all know that there will be shifts in the best snowfall as leads close. Probably also worth noting the control is a near mirror image of the OP. Nice to see still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: Probably also worth noting the control is a near mirror image of the OP. Nice to see still. Where are you going to watch this one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 let's be honest...there's no comfort level on a snowstorm until tomorrow 12z. i at least want to see gfs get on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 13, 2019 Author Share Posted February 13, 2019 Just now, 87storms said: let's be honest...there's no comfort level on a snowstorm until tomorrow 12z. i at least want to see gfs get on board. GFS is basically identical but 50 miles south. That’s good agreement at 72hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 Where are you going to watch this one? I have the luxury of deciding Friday night, so tbd. I’m leaning Arlington right now, figure that even if the jackpot shifts further south it’s more likely to last minute shift north anyways. Temps also get sketchier as you go south, so it could snow in CHO and not accumulate. I’m open to other suggestions though. I’m bad luck, so it would help you guys if I was convinced to stay down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 But the NAM guys. The NAM. What about the NAM??!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 Just now, stormtracker said: But the NAM guys. The NAM. What about the NAM??!? It will come to it's senses in a few.....I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 10 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: GFS is basically identical but 50 miles south. That’s good agreement at 72hrs. I’m sure you’d agree, but it may be good agreement but with this small-ish storm with such a narrow stripe of snow, those are still big differences to try to make a forecast on lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 13, 2019 Author Share Posted February 13, 2019 2 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said: I’m sure you’d agree, but it may be good agreement but with this small-ish storm with such a narrow stripe of snow, those are still big differences to try to make a forecast on lol Yeah but we’re 3 days out. If that disagreement exists Friday that’s a different story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 21 minutes ago, 87storms said: let's be honest...there's no comfort level on a snowstorm until tomorrow 12z. i at least want to see gfs get on board. Lol I never feel comfortable until I’m measuring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deer Whisperer Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Lol I never feel comfortable until I’m measuring I feel comfortable after i get a final measurement that’s at relatively close to what i was hoping for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 18Z NAM gets a clue on the precip. It is going to be a little south. But there is actually a storm there at least. What a horrid model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 NAM gets light snow into DC. West of DC 66 north fringed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricanegiants Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 Wow. LWX anything but bullish in their 3:00 update. A whole lot of nothing. Even the Mon/Tues was a mix bag. Favoring warner side of temps mostly as well. Ugh. Hopefully later models will turn that around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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